The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features a six-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Joe Ryan ($10,000) Minnesota Twins (-240) vs. Kansas City Royals
The first thing that jumped out at me when looking at today’s pitching matchups was the massive -240 moneyline odds for Ryan and the Twins. That’s considerably longer than any other team on the slate, immediately making him worthy of consideration for DFS.
There are a couple of reasons behind those odds. The first is Ryan himself. The third-year big leaguer has continued to improve every season, with a 3.44 ERA and 27.3% strikeout rate in 2023. Impressively, both of those numbers are a bit worse than his underlying numbers indicate: he has an xERA of 2.73 and a 13.4% swinging strike rate.
That makes him a logical positive regression candidate against any opponent, but the Royals aren’t just any opponent. Their 79 wRC+ against right-handed pitching is the worst in the league, and they also rank sixth in strikeouts against righties. That gives Ryan both a solid floor and a solid ceiling tonight.
As a bonus, his price tag is just high enough to suppress his ownership projections since there are pitchers with similar projections and lower price tags. For my money, Ryan is worth the premium, though. He has the best combination of matchup and ability on the slate.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Blake Snell ($8,600) San Diego Padres (-180) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Snell is projecting just above Ryan in THE BAT (but below in the FantasyLabs projections), making him an obvious choice for a value play at his significantly lower salary. Snell has similar numbers on the year to Ryan, with a slightly higher strikeout rate and lower ERA.
Of course, there’s a reason we’re getting him at a discount: a far more difficult matchup with the Angels. The Halos have a very strong 110 wRC+ against lefties this year, which puts them at number six in the MLB. Snell has also been a bit lucky this year, with an xERA of 4.06.
Still, he’s been good enough to justify his price tag, even in a difficult matchup. Vegas is also on his side, giving the Angels a 3.5-run implied total that’s the lowest on the slate. We don’t often get totals that low against pitchers in Snell’s price range, especially when they carry a 30% strikeout rate on the season. That makes him a solid value in all contest types.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Logan Webb ($9,200) San Francisco Giants (-142) vs. Seattle Mariners
There’s an interesting phenomenon that happens on a lot of smaller MLB DFS slates. A few pitchers will have similar outlooks — based on betting lines and/or projections — but chalk tends to form semi-arbitrarily on one or two of them.
That seems to be the case today, with Webb being remarkably similar to Snell and Ryan on paper but projecting for roughly half the ownership. He has similar numbers to the other arms mentioned, with a 3.43 ERA and 3.65 xERA. Additionally, Seattle’s implied total of 3.6 slots right in between the Angels and Royals.
The knock on Webb is his lower strikeout rate of just 24%, limiting his upside to an extent. However, Seattle’s 25.6% strikeout rate is the highest of any of the teams mentioned so far, which helps in that department. We have Webb’s K prediction at 6.17, less than half a run away from Snell and Ryan.
He’s an excellent GPP option who could be lost in the shuffle tonight, thanks to the chalk forming elsewhere.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
Today’s top stack comes with a bit of a caveat. We’re awaiting lines on the Dodgers/Pirates games, and given the strength of the Dodgers offense, a big number could see them usurp the Twins for the top stack.
That said, Minnesota is in an excellent spot tonight, with some laughably low salaries. Their 5.6-run implied total currently leads the slate by a full run, yet their top-five hitters are collectively checking in at under $17,000. Swapping out the underperforming Buxton for someone farther down the lineup could make this stack even cheaper.
We could dig into some stats about their matchup with Austin Cox ($5,000) of the Royals, but it’s not really necessary at this point. The Vegas line is what it is for a reason, and their price tag allows you to pair them comfortably with Ryan for some extra correlation while leaving plenty of room for another top pitcher.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Juan Soto OF ($5,600 DraftKings; $3,700 FanDuel) San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels (Jaime Barria)
With all the money saved with our Twins stack, we can afford to spend up with our one-off options today. That’s particularly true in the outfield, where we could free a second spot and plenty of salary by pivoting from Buxton. Soto’s teammate Fernando Tatis ($6,200 DraftKings; $4,000 FanDuel) is expected to get most of the attention today, but Soto also stands out.
In fact, he’s the better choice against right-handed pitching per our PlateIQ tool:
Soto has better ISO and wOBA numbers while drawing considerably more walks and striking out less. While he’s not the stolen base threat Tatis is, he has enough upside there to make him a solid pivot while saving a few hundred dollars in salary.
Jose Ramirez 3B ($5,700 DraftKings; $3,900 FanDuel) Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta Braves (Bryce Elder)
Ramirez is another premium hitter made possible by our cheap stack today. He stands out as by far the best player at third base, projecting more than a full point higher than the rest of the position on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
While Cleveland has a meager 4.0 implied run total today, Ramirez should still be fairly productive. He’s hitting .293 on the season, with plenty of upside thanks to solid power and speed. Ramirez is a particularly strong play on FanDuel, where he stands out with a 92% Bargain Rating.
Jack Suwinski OF ($3,300 DraftKings; $2,900 FanDuel) Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers (Michael Grove)
Suwinski doesn’t make a ton of contact, heading into Monday with a 31.3% strikeout rate. But when he does find the ball, good things tend to happen. He has 17 home runs and a slugging percentage over .500, which is better than noted sluggers like Soto and Mike Trout.
That makes him a boom-or-bust tournament option, with a reasonable chance of a “boom” day thanks to the pitching matchup. While there’s some uncertainty about who will start for the Dodgers, it’s likely to be Michael Grove and his moderate 20.5% strikeout rate.
Additionally, his spot at the top of the Pirates lineup in a road series should give him plenty of trips to the plate tonight.
