The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Friday features a 12-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Shane McClanahan is the best pitcher on Friday’s slate by a mile. Only one other pitcher is priced in the same ballpark – James Paxton – and he’s taking on a tough Blue Jays’ lineup. Toronto is implied for 4.9 runs vs. Paxton, so that pretty much takes him out of consideration.
Fortunately, McClanahan is one of the best pitchers in baseball. He’s pitched to a 2.23 ERA through his first 16 starts, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.23 on DraftKings. He’s failed to return value in just four of his outings, giving him a nice combination of consistency and upside.
McClanahan hasn’t been quite as dominant as his traditional metrics suggest, but that shouldn’t matter too much vs. the Mariners. Their offense has been subpar against left-handed pitchers this season, ranking 22nd in wRC+. More importantly, they’ve whiffed in 26.9% of their at-bats in that split, good for the third-highest strikeout rate in the league. That doesn’t bode well against McClanahan, who has averaged 10.23 strikeouts per nine innings for his career.
Vegas is also showing McClanahan plenty of love in this matchup. The Brewers are implied for a slate-low 3.6 runs, making McClanahan the only pitcher with a mark below 4.0. He’s only a -135 favorite, but that has more to do with the Rays matchup against Bryce Miller than anything else.
Overall, McClanahan leads the slate in K Prediction and opponent implied team total, which is a potent combination. He’s pricy, but he leads all pitchers in median, ceiling, and projected Plus/Minus per THE BAT.
MLB DFS Value Pick
The Mets continue to spiral, posting a record of just 7-18 in June. They lost three of four games at home vs. the Brewers to start the week, and now they head to San Francisco to start a series with the surging Giants. The Giants have gone 17-8 in June, so this is matchup of two teams heading in opposite directions.
That said, Carlos Carrasco has some appeal as an SP2 in tournaments. The Giants have been a boom-or-bust matchup for right-handed pitchers this season. They rank ninth in wRC+ in that split, but they also have the sixth-highest strikeout rate.
Carrasco is not nearly the same pitcher that he was in his prime, struggling to a 6.19 ERA and a 6.22 xERA in 2023. However, he still brings a smidge of strikeout upside to the table. He’s racked up nine strikeouts over his past seven innings, and he still has two swing-and-miss pitches with his changeup and slider. If he can get through five innings vs. the Giants, there’s a chance he can rack up five or more strikeouts.
Carrasco is unsurprisingly projected for just five percent ownership on this slate, but his ceiling projection puts him in the top half of pitchers in THE BAT. He also ranks first in projected Plus/Minus at just $6,000, so he’s a solid option for differentiating your lineups.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
The A’s pitching staff has been nothing short of a disaster this season. Their starters all range from bad to awful, and their bullpen has the worst ERA in the league by a mile. They’ll send Luis Medina to the mound on Friday, and he owns a 6.84 ERA through 48.2 innings. That said, he does get a very friendly matchup vs. the White Sox. They rank just 27th in wRC+ vs. right-handers, so this is a rare spot where targeting an A’s pitcher has some appeal. Medina has also averaged 8.32 strikeouts per nine innings this season, so he has some strikeout upside as well. At just $5,800, he leads all starters in projected Plus/Minus in the FantasyLabs projection set.
Bobby Miller has arguably the best Vegas data on the slate. He’s the biggest favorite of the day at -220, while his 4.0 opponent implied run total is tied for second. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.97 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool). Miller has posted an excellent 3.49 xERA through his first six MLB starts, and the Royals are one of the best possible matchups. They rank dead last in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers, so this is a great spot for Miller to bounce back from two straight subpar outings.
Freddy Peralta is another pitcher with a great matchup on Friday. He’s taking on the Pirates, who have come crashing back to reality after a great start to the year. They’ve fallen all the way to 23rd in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers, and they’re another squad implied for just 4.0 runs. They don’t stand out as an elite matchup for strikeout purposes, but Peralta’s 6.36 K Prediction still ranks second on the slate. Peralta stands out as an awesome target on FanDuel, where his $9,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.
MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in our MLB Models when generated by projected points using THE BAT belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
The Dodgers’ offense may not have the same star-power as it has in years past, but it’s still really effective. They rank sixth in the league in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers, and their fourth in runs per game.
The Dodgers are coming off a series in Coors Field where they averaged nine runs per game, and they’ll stay on the road for a series vs. the Royals. They obviously won’t benefit from Coors Field in this series, but they draw an interesting matchup vs. Alec Marsh. He’ll be making his first career start at 25 years old, and he’s not considered a very promising prospect. MLB.com ranks him as the No. 14 prospect in the Royals’ organization, and most of the major projection systems expect an ERA in the high fours in the major leagues.
A matchup vs. the Dodgers doesn’t seem like the best way to start your career, and Vegas has the Dodgers implied for 5.8 runs in this matchup. That’s good for the second-highest mark on the slate, trailing only the Braves at 6.0.
The top of the Dodgers’ lineup has also posted some elite Statcast metrics vs. right-handers over the past 30 days (via PlateIQ):
Max Muncy rejoined the Dodgers’ lineup in Colorado after a stint on the IL, and his importance cannot be understated. He’s struggled to find base hits this season, but he’s clubbed 18 homers in just 63 games. That gives him an outside shot at a 40-homer season, and most of his damage has unsurprisingly come against traditional pitchers. He’s in a great spot to get back on the board on Friday.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Spencer Torkelson 1B ($4,000 DraftKings, $3,100 FanDuel) Detroit Tigers at Colorado Rockies (Austin Gomber)
The Tigers are not typically an offense to target in DFS, but they have two things working in their favor on Friday. The biggest is that they’re heading to Coors Field to take on the Rockies. Coors Field is easily the best offensive venue in baseball, and all batters have a perfect 100 Park Factor. Additionally, they’re taking on a left-hander in Gomber, and the Tigers have been much more productive in that split than they have vs. right-handers. Torkelson is expected to bat second in their projected lineup, and he’s started to show flashes of why he was once considered the top prospect in baseball. Specifically, he’s posted a 134 wRC+ against southpaws. Ultimately, the Tigers entire lineup seems underpriced in this spot, and Torkelson is one of their strongest options.
Andrew Benintendi OF ($3,000 DraftKings, $2,700 FanDuel) Chicago White Sox at Oakland Athletics (Luis Medina)
While Medina has some appeal against the White Sox, their offense also has some appeal against Medina. Benintendi is expected to be at the top of the lineup on Friday, and he’s had a quiet but solid season. He’s only managed one homer in 78 games, but he’s posted a .284 batting average with nine steals. That gives him a pretty solid floor, considering his price tag and lineup spot.
Gleyber Torres 2B ($5,000 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) New York Yankees at St. Louis Cardinals (Matthew Liberatore)
Torres stands out as a massive value on FanDuel, where his $2,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. Like most of the Yankees’ lineup, Torres has been mired in a bit of a slump recently. That said, he did post two hits in the Yankees’ last contest, and their offense has scored double-digit runs in back-to-back games. Perhaps they’ve started to turn the corner, and a matchup vs. Liberatore certainly won’t hurt. He’s pitched to a 5.60 ERA and a 7.24 xERA this season, and right-handed batters have managed a .388 wOBA against him. Torres has historically done his best work against left-handed pitchers, posting a 127 wRC+ in that split for his career. This is a solid buy-low spot, and stacking the Yankees could be a strong contrarian option on FanDuel.
