The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Carlos Santana ($2,700): First Baseman, Pittsburgh Pirates
There are two Pirates players leading the way in both our in-house and THE BAT X projections for Bargain Rating. That would be Carlos Santana and Henry Davis, who are both swinging a hot bat and projected for under 5% ownership. The nod goes to Santana, who has hit a home run in two of his last three games and is averaging 17 DraftKings points per game.
Santana, who has a 97% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, leads the Pirates in RBIs this season with 41. He is a switch hitter, so will automatically get the platoon advantage against Brewers right-hander Freddy Peralta. Through 15 starts, Peralta has a 4.65 ERA while allowing a career-high 9.3% barrel percentage. The Pirates have an 81 Team Value Rating, which is tied for the second-highest on the slate. Projected for four runs, this is a great spot for cheap value with very low ownership tonight.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa ($2,100): Outfielder, New York Yankees
Isiah Kiner-Falefa has recorded double-digit DraftKings points in back-to-back games with one home run and five total RBIs. Priced at only $2,100, Kiner-Falefa is a fantastic value option as he is projected to bat seventh for the Yankees, who are implied for 4.9 runs. He has six Pro Trends, which is tied for the highest on the team, and has a 94% Bargain Rating.
The Yankees will face Cardinals left-hander Matthew Liberatore who has allowed four or more runs in four of his last five starts. Liberatore has a 5.60 ERA and a very low 16% strikeout rate. Allowing an 11% barrel percentage and a 37.4% hard-hit rate is also promising for the Bronx Bombers. Kiner-Falefa is a cheap way to get exposure to a team who is in a great spot.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Shane McClanahan ($11,000 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel) at Seattle Mariners
Leading the way in our blended projections for pitchers is Rays left-hander Shane McClanahan. Despite being removed from his last start with back tightness, McClanahan has had a full week of rest and is expected to start tonight without any limitations. Priced at $11,000 on both sites, he has the highest ceiling against the Mariners, who are implied for only 3.6 runs.
Through 16 starts, McClanahan has a ridiculous 11-1 record with a career-best 2.23 ERA. His 26.7% strikeout rate and 1.12 WHIP are also impressive stats that should propel him to another great start against a strikeout-heavy Mariners team. They have the league’s second-highest strikeout rate at 25.9% and are tied with the Tigers for the third-lowest batting average.
Hitter
Shohei Ohtani ($6,500 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Ohtani is putting up video game-like numbers this season, leading the Angels in nearly every hitting and pitcher statistic. He leads the league with 29 home runs, as he has hit 14 home runs in the month of June alone. His .357 ISO and .666 slugging percentage are career-bests, and even in a lefty-lefty matchup against Tommy Henry, the advantage always goes to Ohtani.
In his second season in the majors, Henry has posted a 4-1 record through 12 starts with a 4.31 ERA. His hard-hit rate allowed is only 28%, but Henry also has difficulty striking out batters with an extremely low 15.4% strikeout rate. This is a fantastic spot for Ohtani, who, over the last seven games, has a .467 batting average with five home runs and eight RBIs.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Jon Gray ($9,300 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel) vs. Houston Astros
When it comes to high-priced pitchers, Jon Gray is the best value on DraftKings at $9,300. Outside of last week, when Gray got shelled by the Blue Jays. he has been elite at preventing runs over the last two months. In seven of his last eight starts, he has allowed one run or less and is averaging 23 DraftKings points per game over that time, including one complete game.
In his second year with the Rangers, Gray has a career-best 2.89 ERA and a 21.6% strikeout rate. He is only projected for 5.14 strikeouts in our models tonight against the Astros, but he is also a heavy -174 favorite. The Astros are implied for only four runs. Pitching behind the highest-scoring offense in the league is also a nice added bonus for Gray when he’s pitching.
Hitters
Matt Vierling ($3,500 DraftKings, $3,100 FanDuel) at Colorado Rockies
Ranking in the top five of ownership for DraftKings and FanDuel is Tigers leadoff hitter Matt Vierling. The Tigers have a 5.7 implied run total as they will play at Coors Field against Rockies left-hander Austin Gomber who is one of the lowest-priced pitchers on the slate. Gomber has allowed a 7.01 ERA, a 1.61 WHIP, and a 2.22 HR/9 in 16 starts this year. Not great at all.
With a park rating of 100 and a Team Value Rating of 92, the Tigers are going to be a very popular team to stack. It starts with Vierling, who in his first season with the Tigers, has a respectable .141 ISO and a 43.5% hard-hit rate. He should fair very well against Gomber tonight. Vierling over the past 30 days has been great against left-handed pitching (via PlateIQ):
Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6,600 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel) vs. Miami Marlins
If you dare fade Ohtani, Ronald Acuna Jr. is the pivot at the same price point on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Acuna Jr. has the perfect combination of power and speed. He ranks inside the top 10 in the league in home runs and ranks second in stolen bases with 36. His ISO is .254, while his strikeout rate has plummeted to 12.8%, nearly cutting in half from last season.
The Braves have a slate-high 5.9 implied run total against Marlins right-hander Bryan Hoeing who has only started in four games this season. Hoeing has started back-to-back games and pitched well, but this is a tough matchup against a loaded Braves lineup that leads the league in ISO and home runs this season. Expect Acuna Jr. to continue his MVP campaign.
