The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Thursday features a five-game slate starting at 7:07 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Max Scherzer ($11,000) New York Mets (-190) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Like his teammate Justin Verlander, Scherzer seems to have finally taken a bit of a step back this season. For the first time since 2014, the 38-year-old Scherzer’s strikeout rate has dropped below 30%. He also has a 3.95 ERA, his highest full-season number since 2011.
That’s concerning given his age, and unfortunately, we’re still paying for the Scherzer of yesteryear in terms of his DFS salary. That said, there aren’t any great pitching options on the abridged Thursday slate, so Scherzer might have to do.
He has an excellent matchup with the Brewers, who rank 25th in wRC+ against righties while striking out more than 25% of the time. They’re also the only team with a Vegas total under 4.0 today, reflecting the rough pitching options available.
As the clear leader in median and ceiling projections, Scherzer is a must for cash games. However, there’s certainly a case for pivoting in GPPs, since he’ll carry sky-high ownership.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Keaton Winn ($4,000) San Francisco Giants (+125) at Toronto Blue Jays
It doesn’t get much more “value” than a minimum-priced pitcher. Generally speaking, we only see the $4,000 price tag on “openers” or other arms we expect to only be in for an inning or two. While this is the first MLB start for Winn, he’s been used as a long reliever and is averaging four innings per contest, making five or more within the realm of possibility tonight.
That makes him a strong value as long as he doesn’t get shelled by the Blue Jays. While that’s a distinct possibility — Toronto is a top-five offense against righties — even a mediocre start would be enough to pay off his salary. Winn has been solid this season with a 3.75 ERA, despite facing tough opposition in Arizona and St. Louis in two of his appearances.
With the Dodgers game at Coors and plenty of other offenses implied for big totals, it could make sense to save the money on pitching and load up on star hitters. Winn is an excellent way to do that, even if splurging on Scherzer.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Chris Bassitt ($9,600) Toronto Blue Jays (-150) vs. San Francisco Giants
Across from Winn is Chris Bassitt, who trails only Scherzer in median projection in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT models. Like Scherzer, he’s taken a step back this season, with just a 20.5% strikeout rate and an ERA on the wrong side of four.
Of course, his matchup is much tougher than Scherzer’s, as the Giants are a top-ten offense against right-handed pitching this season. It’s a credit to Bassitt that they’re only implied for 4.2 runs, the second-lowest mark today. He’s a solid starter on a slate devoid of them, making him worth considering as a Scherzer pivot in deeper contests at roughly one-third of the projected ownership.
The $1,400 in salary savings is another reason to consider switching to Bassitt in large field contests or pairing him with Scherzer in what should be a relatively unique build.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
Our tournament model prefers the Rockies over the opposing Dodgers today, thanks to significant savings in both salary and ownership. They’re implied for a solid 5.1 runs, making their stack a substantial value relative to their price point.
We’re getting those savings due to the Rockies’ offensive struggles this season. They rank 24th in wRC+ — which adjusts for the ballpark — against right-handed pitching this season. However, they have a solid pitching matchup against the Dodgers Emmet Sheehan ($7,400), a rookie with just 12 MLB innings under his belt.
While Sheehan has a 1.50 ERA, he hasn’t been anywhere near that good. His xFIP and SIERA numbers are in the high fives, suggesting he’s been lucky thus far. He also has a low strikeout rate of 16.7% while allowing fly balls on two-thirds of his balls in play.
I don’t expect the latter number to last, but it’s still a bad sign for a game at Coors. The Rockies could certainly take advantage of this matchup.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
J.D. Martinez OF ($5,700 DraftKings; $3,900 FanDuel) Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies (Chase Anderson)
Yesterday, we used the PlateIQ tool to identify our favorite Dodger hitter based on the pitching matchup. That was Mookie Betts ($6,300 DraftKings; $4,400 FanDuel), who rewarded us with 29 points on DraftKings.
Today, the numbers are pointing to Martinez, who has the best numbers of any Dodger against right-handed pitching this season:
We obviously want to load up on Los Angeles and their 7.3-run implied total, but I’m starting with Martinez thanks to his excellent splits.
Mike Tauchman OF ($2,500 DraftKings; $2,800 FanDuel) Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Taijuan Walker)
The Cubs are implied for five runs today, making Tauchman’s DraftKings salary curious. He’s projected to hit first in their lineup, a valuable spot given their excellent team total.
Thanks to his ultra-cheap salary, he’s an excellent choice if you’re trying to jam as many Coors Field bats as possible into your lineups. Tauchman is hitting a solid .275 on the season, and while none of his numbers jump off the page, he’s better than his DraftKings salary would indicate.
Be sure to check back in once lineups are confirmed, as Tauchman would be far less valuable if he ends up further down the lineup.
Brendan Donovan 1B/2B ($3,400 DraftKings; $2,600 FanDuel) St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros (JP France)
We went with Donovan yesterday thanks to an excellent pitching matchup against Cristian Javier, who struggles against lefty hitters. That’s not the case today, as France has been fine against lefties, but Donovan is still worth a long look.
Like Tauchman, he’s set to lead off for a team with a solid run total while coming at a value price. Donovan provides a bit more upside, with eight home runs and four steals this season. He’s my preferred salary saver on FanDuel, where he has a 66% Bargain Rating.
