The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Josh Palacios ($2,000): Outfielder, Pittsburgh Pirates
No team has been streakier than the Pittsburgh Pirates. The playoff hopefuls have alternated torrid play with ineffective stretches, a hallmark of a young, inexperienced team. Josh Palacios stands among them and is due for a breakout performance.
Recently, Palacios has been moved to the top of the Pirates order. The outfielder was promoted to the leadoff spot and is once again projected to bat first against the San Diego Padres, giving him ample opportunity to build off his solid underlying metrics. Palacios has an above-average 45.2% hard-hit rate and .432 slugging percentage but hasn’t had much luck in delivering extra-base hits over his recent sample. The 27-year-old has hits in five of his past seven games, only one of which has gone for a double.
Not surprisingly, Palacios is a progression candidate. He’s got a .364 slugging percentage on the campaign, leaving him well short of his expected benchmark. Further, Palacios delivers a .656 expected slugging percentage versus offspeed stuff, and Blake Snell’s changeup is his second-most used pitch.
Vidal Brujan ($2,300): Second Base/Outfielder, Vidal Brujan
The absence of Brandon Lowe has created a vacancy in the Tampa Bay Rays lineup filled by Vidal Bruan. The switch-hitting utilityman has made the most of his time lately and projects as one of the top bargains on Wednesday’s slate.
Coming into tonight’s inter-league battle, Brujan has hits in three straight and four of his last five. Over that stretch, he’s totaled five hits, a double, two runs scored, and two stolen bases. Moreover, he’s poised to continue that pace against a combustible Zach Davies. The Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher ranks as one of the worst pitchers in the bigs, posting a 7.82 ERA while allowing 1.82 walks and hits per inning pitched.
Brujan’s best performances have come as a left-handed batter, setting the stage for another strong showing against Davies. Brujan’s slugging percentage is over 100 points higher against righties, and Davies has a generous approach from the mound, posting a .277 expected batting average and a 25.3% chase rate, both of which put him in the bottom 16% of pitchers.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Aaron Nola ($10,400 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Cubs
With 13 games on the main slate, there is no shortage of quality arms to choose from. Still, Aaron Nola tops our median and ceiling projections and should maintain his fine form against a free-swinging Chicago Cubs squad.
Like the temperature outside, Nola has been heating up in June. The former All-Star is allowing a paltry 0.92 walks and hits per inning pitched, yielding an improved 3.46 ERA. Additionally, he’s seen a surge in his strikeout metrics, with Nola punching out 33 over 26.0 innings pitched for an 11.4 K/9 rate and 32.7% strikeout rate. Surely, those stats will come into play against a Cubs team that is averaging 9.0 strikeouts per game over the past week.
As good as he’s been, Nola doesn’t have the record to show for his sterling performances. The Philadelphia Phillies ace is coming off one of his best outings of the campaign, holding the Atlanta Braves scoreless over 6.0 innings while allowing just two hits. That wasn’t good enough to help him secure the win, and Nola remains just 6-5 this season.
Nola continues to put up analytics that put him in the upper echelon of pitchers. His 3.51 expected ERA puts him among the top 30% of MLB pitchers, with his hard-hit rate and chase rate ranking in the 72nd and 76th percentile, respectively. If the Braves couldn’t figure him out, there’s nothing the Cubs could do to knock Nola off his stride.
Hitter
Marcus Semien ($5,700 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Tigers
Although his 25-game hitting streak came to an end earlier this month, Marcus Semien has extended his scorching pace throughout the month. The Texas Rangers second baseman has hits in 38 of his last 44 games, inflating his traditional stats back into normal ranges. Those metrics could climb even higher on Wednesday as the Rangers host the Detroit Tigers and an ineffective Joey Wentz.
Wentz’s analytics are nothing short of disastrous. The soft-throwing lefty sits in the 16th percentile or lower in barrel rate, expected ERA, expected slugging percentage, and chase rate. Worse, he falls off a cliff on the road, posting a 7.48 ERA and 2.3 home runs per nine innings across six starts.
Pitchers can’t afford to make mistakes against a potent Rangers lineup, and Semien is the table-setter. The Rangers’ leadoff man has recorded multiple hits in four straight games, accumulating nine hits, two extra-base knocks, and three runs scored.
Semien is among the team leaders in virtually every offensive category. The former Silver Slugger leads the Rangers with 64 runs and 36 extra-base hits while sitting second in RBI and third in home runs. Further, Semien gasses lefties (per PlateIQ), assuring DFS players that he reaches his fantasy ceiling and ends the day as one of the top performers on the main slate.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Vivid Picks has to offer with promo code LABS for a $200 deposit match.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Logan Allen ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel) vs. Kansas City Royals
Logan Allen’s tenure as a leveled Guardian is off to a promising start. The former second-round pick made his MLB debut this season and has compiled a respectable 3-2 record with a 3.68 ERA in 11 starts. But according to our aggregate modeling, the best has yet to come for the southpaw, who projects as one of the best available on tonight’s docket.
Allen toes the rubber with a respectable four-pitch mix. Predictably, the 24-year-old relies on a 4-seamer most often, regularly mixing in a sweeper and changeup while reserving a cutter for right-handed batters. He does enough to keep batters guessing, inducing a 20.1% swing-and-miss rate or better on every pitch but his cutter. Allen’s changeup and sweeper have elicited the best results, with respective whiff rates of 35.5% and 28.1%.
More importantly, Allen gets to pick on the farcical Royals. As a team, KC sits in the bottom three in OPS and runs scored, compiling the eighth-most Ks. Those issues have been compounded over the Royals’ current schedule, and Allen won’t let them forget it. Low-key, Allen could end the night as the top-performing pitcher.
Hitters
Cedric Mullins ($4,700 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) vs. Cincinnati Reds
The groin strain that sidelined Cedric Mullins for a month hasn’t slowed him down since returning. Mullins had made it on base six times across four outings, scoring one run while adding one RBI and one stolen base. It’s not reflected in his salary, but based on our projections, Mullins should end the day as one of the top-performing hitters.
There are a few other factors impacting Mullins’ probability of success tonight. First, Luke Weaver serves them up for opposing hitters. The Cincinnati Reds starter sits in the 13th percentile or worse in expected slugging percentage and barrel rate. Secondly, Mullins feeds on offspeed pitches, posting a .882 slugging percentage this year. That’s compatible with Weaver’s offerings, who throws his changeup 23.8% of the time, his second-most often used pitch.
Lastly, Mullins torches righties. The left-handed batter has a .482 slugging percentage, with six of his eight long fly balls coming versus right-handers. Mullins will show why he’s one of the Orioles’ best against the Reds.
Adey Rutschman ($5,100 DraftKings, $2,900 FanDuel) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Mullins isn’t the only Oriole who benefits from teeing off Weaver. Adley Rutschman has lived up to the billing as a former first-overall selection in the draft. He’ll continue to make a name for himself Wednesday against the Reds.
Rutschman’s hitter profile supports his MVP-caliber potential. He’s one of the most disciplined hitters in the game, ranking in the 93rd percentile in chase rate and 97th percentile in walk percentage. Moreover, Rutschman sits in the 84th percentile in expected weighted on-base average, and his spray chart reflects his ability to use every inch of the ballpark.
Like Mullins, Rutschman benefits from taking on one of the worst pitchers in the bigs. Yet somehow, his salary isn’t close to matching his fantasy ceiling. We’re adding the O’s catcher to our roster of value picks, expecting him to deliver another MVP-esque performance.
