The PGA TOUR continues a great summer of action with its annual stop in Detroit for the Rocket Mortgage Classic this week. Last week, it was the Keegan Bradley show at TPC River Highlands as the New England native claimed an emotional victory in impressive fashion with a total score of -23. There should be more low scores on the board this week at Detroit Golf Club, which has hosted this event since its creation in 2019.
The event is somewhat new, but the course has been around since over 120 years ago. It originally opened in 1899 with six holes and annual dues of $10. For more on the style of game that should play well on this course, check out Matt Vincenzi’s stats preview.
The field isn’t quite as strong as last week’s elevated event, but it does have a pretty strong representation of the top players. Tony Finau is the highest-ranked player in the Official World Golf Rankings that is expected to tee it up this week, and he’ll be joined by a total of 10 players ranked in the top 35. Finau will be defending the title he won at Detroit Golf Club last year when he set the tournament record with a -26 score to claim his second straight tournament victory. He won the 3M Open the week before, but this year the events are not back-to-back.
Finau entered the final round tied with Taylor Pendrith, who finished second, and is joined by Stephen Jaeger as players from the top five last season looking to close the deal this year in Detroit. Other top players in the field include a surging Rickie Fowler, Tom Kim, and Max Homa. Colin Morikawa and Justin Thomas will also look to regain their top form while young rising stars Ludvig Aberg, Sam Bennett, and Gordon Sargent look to continue promising starts to their PGA TOUR careers.
This weekly GPP post focuses on players with lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success. The picks here are designed to go against the grain and take advantage of players that may be overlooked or not selected due to risk factors.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk if it raises the lineup’s ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that usually lead to large-field success.
This weekly post focuses on players who are strong plays in GPP contests. These contests usually have large numbers of entries and pay out big prizes to the top few percent. This week the largest GPP on DraftKings is the $1M Sand Trap.
The players highlighted will be good options if they deliver in all formats, but they come with risk factors that usually keep them from being the safest plays. Safety and reliability should be the focus of lineups in cash and double-up contests, where finishing in the top spot isn’t quite as important. To find specific guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
Usually, I rely on the Stroked Gained Model, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players that gain shots on approach since week-to-week putting performance can be highly volatile, even for the best players on the PGA TOUR.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
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High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Tony Finau $10,900
Whether it’s because he’s the defending champion or because he’s the most expensive play on the board, the public is expected to be mostly out on Finau this week. He only has a 16.5% ownership projection, which is the seventh-lowest in the field. Unless there’s radical movement before the action gets underway Thursday, Finau looks like he’ll be vastly under-owned and actually provide very nice leverage.
He has the highest Perfect% in the field, which means he is in more optimal lineups in our sims than any other player. His high Perfect% and low ownership projection combine to give him the highest SimLeverage in the field by one of the widest margins I have ever seen. Vegas agrees with our sims, giving him and Rickie Fowler (who I also like a lot this week but is much chalkier) the best odds of winning and the best odds of finishing in the top 10 this week.
Finau has not only proven he can win low-scoring events like this one, but he has also proven he can win this event on this course in record fashion. He hasn’t been near the top of leaderboards since he won the Mexico Open at the end of April, but his track record here is too good to overlook with his ownership so low.
Even though he only has one top 20 in his past eight tournaments, it’s important to take a little bit longer look at Finau’s form. In the past 12 months, he has had four tournament victories and only two missed cuts. If people continue to overlook him, he’ll end up being a very solid target for GPP due to his upside and win equity.
Cameron Davis $9,300
Aside from Rickie, there’s pretty good SimLeverage projected across the top 10 golfers in this field, each priced over $9K. While it feels like Collin Morikawa is on the verge of a breakthrough return to the winners’ circle, and Justin Thomas may have found his old form, I’m actually going with Davis as my other high-priced pick since I think he’s a great play at just over $9K.
Davis won this event two years ago and finished T14 last year in his return to Detroit Golf Club. He’s been extremely volatile this season, with results all over the map due in part to an illness that has limited his practice time. He missed the cut at the U.S. Open two weeks ago but bounced back with a T33 last week in Connecticut, highlighted by a scalding 63 on Sunday, which tied his career-low score on the PGA Tour.
In his recent events, Davis’s game looks to be rounding back into top form in every category but putting, and if he flips the flat stick, he could end up claiming another win in the Motor City. His game is ideally suited for the venue, and his course history reflects just how high his ceiling is.
Davis has the fourth-highest SimLeverage of the players priced over $9K behind only Finau, Morikawa and Max Homa. His projected ownership is all the way under 10%, which is the lowest of any player over $9K. Given his upside, he should be in a great spot to get some leverage with his ownership so low and his ceiling so high.
Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Stephen Jaeger $8,900
There are 10 players available from $8K to $9K, but there isn’t quite as much SimLeverage available from this group overall. However, there are some good plays with ownership projections under 10% led by Jaeger, who comes in with good form and good course history.
Throughout his career, Jaeger’s best results have come at low-scoring events that turn into birdie fests. Last season, he finished fifth at this event, scoring -4 or better in each of his four rounds.
The 34-year-old from Munich has made the cut in seven straight events with four top-30 finishes. Last week, he sunk to a T64 after struggling to a +2 on Sunday. Most of his issues were just in one area, according to his SG profile–putting, where he lost an ugly 7.4 shots. If he gets his putter turned around, the rest of his game is ready to contend again this year in Detroit.
Byeong-Hun An $8,200
The highest ceiling projection of the players between $8K and $9K belongs to An, who also brings the best Leverage rating of the group and the second-highest projected Points per $1,000 Salary. He ranks in the top 10 in the field in Projected Plus/Minus and Leverage while landing in over 10% of optimal lineups in our sims.
An’s ownership projection is just a little higher than Jaeger’s at 12.2% but still significantly lower than chalky options like Austin Eckroat and Ludvig Aberg, who I do like for cash games where differentiation is less critical.
An has made the cut in each of his two previous trips to this track, and the need for SG: Off The Tee plays right into one of the strengths of his game. His statistical profile matches well, and he has a good record on similar courses.
He did miss the cut last week on the number, but prior to that had notched three straight top 25s at the Memorial, the Charles Schwab Challenge, and the Byron Nelson. He’s still in search of his first PGA TOUR win, but this week’s event sets up well for him to bounce back and post another strong result. If his putter cooperates, he has a legitimate chance to contend down the stretch on Sunday.
Value PGA DFS Picks
Brandon Wu $7,500
Wu has been a boom-or-bust play over the past few months, which makes him exactly the kind of option I like to target for GPP in a low-scoring event like this one. He has missed the cut in three of his past six events (bust), but he has finished in the top 25 in the other three events he has played, including a third-place finish at the Mexico Open behind only Finau and Jon Rahm.
This kind of low-scoring event should be in Wu’s wheelhouse since he ranks ninth in total birdies and 24th in birdie average on the PGA TOUR this season. His SG: Off-the-Tee has been very strong in his good results, and like An and Jaeger, he has the tee-to-green game to compete if his putter doesn’t hold him back.
He has the sixth-highest ceiling projection of all players under $8K. and the eighth-highest leverage since his ownership projection is under 8%.
Last year in his first trip to this event, Wu finished 30th after a closing 67 for his best round of the week. He brings a very nice ceiling compared to the other options in this salary range.
Akshay Bhatia $7,000
Bhatia is another player who has posted some impressive results in low-scoring events this season and has played his way to Special Temporary Membership as a result. He has made the cut and exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his past nine events. He has finished back in the pack at events with strong and deep fields but has shown he can be near the top of the leaderboard in events with fields and courses like this one.
Bhatia finished second at the Puerto Rico Open at the start of March and had another strong showing at the Mexico Open, where he also finished in the top five. If the correlation between Vidanta Vallarta and Detroit Golf Club holds, he could be poised for another big week.
With less than 5% ownership projection, he has a positive SimLeverage since he shows up in over 5% of optimal lineups. He’s a swing-for-the-fences pick, but like with Wu, I think the upside is worth taking a shot on this week.
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Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Davis Thompson $6,900
Thompson’s recent results aren’t eye-catching, which is why his ownership is down under 1.5%. However, he is in the second-most optimal lineups of any player under $7K and offers the third-most SimLeverage of the players in this price range.
Early on in his rookie season, Thompson showed a high ceiling highlighted by a runner-up finish at The American Express, where he was outdueled by Jon Rahm. He has made six of 12 cuts since then without a top 25, but there are signs that his game is rounding into form. His short game and SG: Around The Green have been trending the right way.
Thompson also has shown an affinity for this course in the past. In 2021, he fired a nine-under 63 to hold the lead after the first round in just his third PGA TOUR event as a professional. He faded to T58 by the end of the week, but he has the ceiling to be a good lowly-owned sleeper in his return to Detroit.
Kyle Reifers $6,100
Reifers is an option to check out if you decide to go ultra-cheap in one of your roster spots to maximize how much you have to spend in your other slots. Reifers shot a bogey-free eight-under round on Monday to qualify with medalist honors and will be teeing it up in just his third PGA TOUR event of the season.
He also Monday qualified for the Mexico Open and the Travelers Championship. After missing the cut in Mexico, he looked strong last week with four straight rounds in the 60s at TPC River Highlands and a solid T38. He also made the cut in his appearance on the Korn Ferry Tour earlier this month.
His long-term form is shaky, but he’s definitely playing well enough to make the cut right now and has shown he can excel on this course. The 39-year-old journeyman came close to a PGA TOUR win back in 2015 at the Barracuda Championship, where he lost in a playoff to J.J. Henry.
Reifers does match two Pro Trends having to do with recent form, and only two players priced under $7K match more than that. He’s a longshot flier, but if he can make it to the weekend again will be a great source of leverage since his ownership is projected to be well under 1%.
Other cheap punt plays to consider include Peter Kuest ($6,100), Vincent Whaley ($6,400), Greyson Sigg ($6,700), and Scott Stallings (6,900)
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