The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Daniel Vogelbach ($2,200): First Baseman, New York Mets
On Monday’s six-game slate, Vogelbach has the highest Bargain Rating of any hitter. He’ll face Colin Rea and the Brewers if the weather holds off in New York, and the Mets have the third-highest implied team total on the slate.
Vogelbach is only hitting .218 in his 54 games this season but has some power upside at this cheap price tag. He hit 18 homers last year and has four home runs, a .127 ISO, and a .309 wOBA this season. Those numbers obviously don’t jump off the page, but he has looked better following a week-long sabbatical. He had two multi-hit games, including one with a home run, producing 21 and 19 DKFP in two games against the Astros.
Lefties have put up strong numbers against Rea this season, as you can see using our PlateIQ tool:
The red numbers in the “Vs L” category are bad matchups for Rea, which means they’re good matchups for his opposition. In this case, that points to Vogelbach being a strong bargain play to consider.
Zack Short ($2,400): Second Baseman, Detroit Tigers
Short is another spot to try and take advantage of handedness splits as he and the Tigers roll into Texas to face lefty Andrew Heaney and the Rangers.
Short is projected to bat leadoff against Heaney atop the Tigers lineup, which has been dramatically improved after a slow start and has scored 61 runs in their last 13 games (4.7 runs per game). Hitting in the leadoff spot gives Short a good ceiling at under $2.5K.
After a slow start, Short is hitting .257 over his past 30 games with three home runs and a .329 wOBA. Against lefties, Short is hitting .296 on the season with two of his four homers and a .401 wOBA.
While both Vogelbach and Short can help you in the infield, there are also some good bargain outfielders to consider, including Michael A. Taylor, Clint Frazier, and Derek Hill.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Spencer Strider ($12,600 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel) vs. Minnesota Twins
Strider is the most expensive pitching option on both DraftKings and FanDuel for Monday’s slate, but he brings the highest ceiling by such a wide margin that he’s hard to pass up. With enough bargain bats or value plays in other positions, Strider is definitely workable and makes sense since he has so much strikeout potential in a favorable matchup.
Strider leads all of Major League Baseball with a 14.46 K/9 rate that is more than two full strikeouts better than any other qualifying pitcher. He has 136 strikeouts in 84 2/3 innings and has reached at least nine strikeouts in 10 of his 15 starts. In those 15 starts, he has a 3.93 ERA and 3.10 FIP, averaging 39.9 FanDuel points and 24.0 DraftKings points per outing.
After his early-season dominance, Strider hit a rough patch earlier this month, allowing 13 runs and five home runs in nine innings against the Mets and Tigers. He righted the ship in his most recent outing, holding the Phillies to just one run in six strong innings with nine strikeouts to earn his eighth win, 52 FanDuel points, and 28.7 DraftKings points.
Now that he’s back on track, he gets a good matchup against the Twins, hitting just .225 in June while averaging 3.5 runs per game.
Strider has the highest ceiling projection on both FanDuel and DraftKings on Monday night and the highest strikeout prediction by over three full strikeouts.
Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table is also bullish on Strider’s strikeout potential:
Hitter
Shohei Ohtani ($6,400 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) vs. Chicago White Sox
Ohtani and Ronald Acuña Jr. are incredibly tight at the top of the ceiling projections for hitters on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Both are extraordinary plays, but Ohtani gets a slight edge for me since he comes just a bit cheaper and has more positional flexibility on DraftKings, where he can move to 1B.
Ohtani shares the MLB lead for home runs with Matt Olson, as both sluggers have smashed 25 home runs on the season. Ten of Ohtani’s home runs have come in his past 18 games, and during his past 20 games, he has gone a blistering 31-for-79 (.392) with a .557 wOBA and an average of 29.9 FanDuel points and 15.7 DraftKings points per game, just as a hitter. His total contributions are astounding when you add in how dominant he has been as a pitcher.
On Monday, Ohtani will take on Dylan Cease, who has let left-handed batters hit .237 with a .317 wOBA against him this season. As expected, Ohtani’s numbers are much better against righties, and he looks poised for a good game in his homecoming after the Halos’ trip to Colorado.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some players that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Justin Verlander ($8,300 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
In the blended projections, Verlander stands out as a great SP2 option or as a cheaper alternative to Strider. Verlander has the second-highest strikeout prediction of all the pitchers on this slate and matches more Pro Trends than any other pitcher except Strider.
He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all starting pitchers using the aggregated projections. He’s projected for lower ownership on FanDuel, but that is also where he has a Bargain Rating of 87%.
In his nine starts for the Mets, Verlander has compiled a 2-4 record, a 4.50 ERA, and a 4.33 FIP while striking out 44 in 52 innings. He has alternated strong starts with rough outings, allowing exactly one run in every other start. If the pattern continues, he should be poised for success against the Brewers.
Milwaukee is a good matchup for Verlander since they have the second-worst batting average in the majors, the fifth-worst wOBA, and fifth-fewest runs scored. They also have the third-highest K%, creating even more strikeout potential.
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Hitters
Luis Robert Jr. ($4,900 DraftKings, $3,200 FanDuel) at Los Angeles Angels
Robert comes into this matchup with lefty Reid Detmers ranking in the top seven in ceiling and median projections for outfielders using the 50/50 projections. Robert is especially affordable on FanDuel, where he has the seventh-highest projected Plus/Minus of all outfielders, a 90% Bargain Rating, and a juicy 97% Leverage rating.
La Pantera has been pounding the ball in June, hitting .324 in his last 19 games with eight homers and an impressive .465 wOBA.
He has also thrived against lefties all season, hitting .368 with a .495 wOBA and .368 ISO in 66 plate appearances.
Jordan Westburg ($2,000 DraftKings, $2,600 FanDuel) vs. Cincinnati Reds
The Reds and Orioles continue to be two of the most exciting teams in baseball with their infusion of young talent. They’ll go head to head in Charm City to start the week, and it’s fitting we’ll get a bargain debut in the first game of the set.
The Orioles are expected to call up Westburg, their first pick from the 2020 draft. He has moved all over the field in the minors this season for the Norfolk Tides but is eligible at SS on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
In 2022, Westburg hit .273 with 18 homers, nine stolen bases, and a .379 wOBA in 91 games at Triple-A. He has already matched his home run total with 18 bombs in 67 games this season while hitting .295 with a .404 wOBA.
He entered the season as the No. 3 prospect for Baltimore and the No. 34 prospect in all of baseball, per MLB Pipeline. In his debut, he offers excellent salary relief and can help you afford guys like Strider, Shohei, or any other superstar you’re targeting.
