The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Andrew Benintendi ($2,800): Outfielder, Chicago White Sox
Projected to bat leadoff for the White Sox, Benintendi has recorded at least one hit in five of his last six games while averaging 8.8 DraftKings points per game over that time. Benintendi only has one home run this season, but his strikeout rate is down to a career-low 14.8%. He’s been even better against right-handers over the past 30 days (via PlateIQ):
At $2,800 on DraftKings, Benintendi has an 84% Bargain Rating, and he’ll have the platoon advantage against Red Sox right-hander Brayan Bello. Despite pitching reasonably well as of late, Bello isn’t known for being a strikeout pitcher, as he has a 22.2% strikeout rate. His barrel percentage allowed has increased to 7.9% while allowing a 32% hard-hit rate. This is an exploitable matchup for Benintendi and the White Sox.
Kevin Padlo ($2,600): First Baseman/Third Baseman, Los Angeles Angels
After recording a .282 ISO in Triple-A, Padlo is projected to get his second start at first base for the Angels and bat sixth. Padlo also has third base eligibility, making him easy to fit into all lineup builds at $2,600 on DraftKings. He has a 90% Bargain Rating as the Angels lead the slate with a 6.4 implied run total at Coors Field.
Like Benintendi, Padlo will get a platoon advantage against Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland. Not only did Padlo display his power in the minor leagues, but he also recorded six stolen bases in his 32 games. The dual-threat ability for Padlo provides a nice floor. He went 0-for-3 in his first game, but Padlo will get plenty of opportunity for fantasy points in this spot.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Chris Bassitt ($9,200 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel) vs. Oakland Athletics
Bassitt has the highest ceiling in our blended projections despite being shelled in back-to-back starts. Bassitt allowed 11 earned runs in his last two starts while only completing 6.2 innings. However, those starts were on the road, where Bassitt has a 5.89 ERA compared to a 2.18 ERA at home, where he also has a 3-1 record this season.
A big reason Bassitt is projected so well is the cupcake matchup against the Athletics, who are only implied for 3.4 runs, the second-lowest on the slate. Bassitt and the Blue Jays are a slate-high -300 favorite as they get set to open up a three-game home series against the worst team in baseball. Bassitt is in a great spot to bounce back with a great start.
Not only do the Athletics have the worst record in the league, but they have the fifth-highest strikeout rate while scoring the least amount of runs. Even though Bassitt has a 20.6% strikeout rate this season, he has a 5.56 K Prediction. Prioritize Bassitt on FanDuel, where he has a 79% Bargain Rating and is only $100 more than DraftKings with elite upside.
Hitter
Shohei Ohtani ($6,700 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) at Colorado Rockies
Ohtani is having an incredible month of June thus far with a ridiculous .847 slugging percentage with nine home runs. He has hit at least one home run in seven of his last 12 games and now will get the luxury of playing at Coors Field. Ohtani’s 24 home runs lead the league, and he’s proving to be the best hitter in baseball.
The Angels have a slate-high 6.5 implied run total against the Rockies, who have lost eight straight games while allowing eight runs per game during that time. Freeland leads the team in nearly all pitching categories but is allowing 1.34 homers per nine innings and a 4.48 ERA. Ohtani is in a great spot to take advantage of Freeland, even in a lefty-lefty matchup.
Despite a peak-high salary on both sites, Ohtani is drawing the most ownership among all hitters in THE BAT X projections. Given how well he has been hitting the ball recently and playing in Coors Field, it will be difficult to fade Ohtani. With no high-priced pitcher on the slate, paying up for Ohtani and his Angels teammates feels necessary in cash games.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Joe Musgrove ($8,800 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel) vs. Washington Nationals
Musgrove is projected for more ownership in THE BAT than any other pitcher in his home matchup against the Nationals. Musgrove has been a little inconsistent in his 10 starts but does have a 5-2 record and is a massive -290 home favorite. He also has the most Pro Trends among all pitchers, as the Nationals are only implied for 3.3 runs.
This is not a good strikeout matchup, as the Nationals have the lowest strikeout rate in the league despite having one of the league’s worst records. Musgrove has only a 20.9% strikeout rate but has done an excellent job of pitching to soft contact allowing a career-best 24.5% hard-hit rate and a 5.5% barrel percentage. This is a great run prevention spot for Musgrove.
Hitters
Fernando Tatis Jr. ($6,600 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel) vs. Washington Nationals
If you dare to fade Ohtani, Tatis Jr. is the easy contrarian pay-up option on DraftKings as he is only $100 cheaper and still in a great spot against Nationals left-hander Patrick Corbin. Tatis has a 47.5% hard-hit rate this season, with 15 home runs in only 55 games. Nine of Corbin’s 13 home runs allowed have come on the road, where he has a 5.40 ERA.
Corbin has given up at least two home runs in 33% of his starts while allowing an average of 1.38 homers per nine innings for the year. His 4-8 record as a starter is on par with his last two seasons when he was one of the most hitter-friendly pitchers in the league. Prioritize Tatis on FanDuel, where he is only $4,300 with a 98% Bargain Rating with dual position eligibility as a shortstop and outfielder.
Brandon Belt ($2,500 DraftKings, $2,500 FanDuel) vs. Oakland Athletics
Belt was finally reinstated from his 10-day IL stint last game, and he is only $2,500 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Belt is sandwiched between four players who are $5,000 or more on DraftKings as he is projected to bat third for the Blue Jays, who are implied for 5.9 runs against James Kaprielian.
Kaprielian has a 6.38 ERA and a 2-6 record in 10 starts and 13 appearances. His 19.1% strikeout rate is one of the lowest on the slate, and his 1.64 WHIP isn’t very intimidating. Belt is one of the best values on the slate in the heart of the Blue Jays order. He will be a popular one-off as a first baseman and outfielder, but Belt is in a solid matchup against Kaprielian tonight.
