After an outstanding West Coast U.S. Open in Los Angeles, the PGA TOUR is back East for the annual stop in Cromwell, Connecticut for the Travelers Championship. TPC River Highlands has hosted this event since 1984, and this year it’s a designated event, meaning most of the PGA TOUR’s biggest stars will be trekking cross-country headed to Cromwell.
The top eight players in the World Rankings are each expected to play, led by world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, FedExCup leader Jon Rahm, defending champion Xander Schauffele, and Wyndham Clark, fresh off his win at last week’s U.S. Open.
While none of the LIV golfers are back in the mix yet, Min Woo Lee was added to the field after his top 10 last week and will be one of several young players looking for their first official PGA TOUR victory. Sahith Theegala came close last year, and this course has had a history of giving young rising stars their breakthrough win. Other rising stars in action this week include Michael Thorbjornsen, Sam Bennett, and Ludvig Aberg.
This should be a low-scoring event compared to last week’s U.S. Open. We’ll be looking for players who can go low in a hurry and contend in elite fields. For more on the type of game that fits the course, check out Matt Vincenzi’s stats preview.
This weekly GPP post focuses on players with lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success. The picks here are designed to go against the grain and take advantage of players that may be overlooked or not selected due to risk factors.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk if it raises the lineup’s ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that usually lead to large-field success.
This weekly post focuses on players who are strong plays in GPP contests. These contests usually have large numbers of entries and pay out big prizes to the top few percent. This week the largest GPP on DraftKings is the $1M Summer Sand Trop Special.
The players highlighted will be good options if they deliver in all formats, but they come with risk factors that usually keep them from being the safest plays. Safety and reliability should be the focus of lineups in cash and double-up contests, where finishing in the top spot isn’t quite as important. To find specific guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
Usually, I rely on the Stroked Gained Model, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players that gain shots on approach since week-to-week putting performance can be highly volatile, even for the best players on the PGA TOUR.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems PrizePicks has to offer with PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 deposit match.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Rory McIlroy $10,900
There are 12 players at $9K or higher for the second straight week. With so many top options, there is a good distribution of ownership, with only Patrick Cantlay ($10,300) projected for over 20% ownership in the group.
Rory has the lowest projected ownership of all the golfers priced above $10K at under 13%. While he did come up one shot short at the U.S. Open, he notched his fourth straight top 10 dating back to the PGA Championship, where he finished T7. During that recent run, his driving has been excellent, and his approach game solid, but his putter has been letting him down. He missed multiple shots by mere inches on Sunday, and with a few different breaks or a stumble from Wyndham Clark, he could have easily claimed the win.
This will be Rory’s fifth career appearance at TPC River Highlands, and he has finished in the top 20 in each of those visits.
McIlroy brings the second-highest SimLeverage in the field this week due to his low ownership, and his 11 Pro Trends are only bested by Scottie Scheffler, who matches 12. Rory also has the second-best odds to win and the third-best odds to finish in the top 10 this week. He’s projected to be the 19th-most owned golfer, so he’s a great spot to get some leverage at the top of the salary structure.
Tony Finau $9,700
Finau is another place to get some leverage among the top golfers since he’s only projected for around 10% ownership, the second-lowest of any golfer over $9K. He offers the seventh-best SimLeverage in the field and the third-highest of golfers priced over $9K.
Over the past couple of years, Finau has shown he can win in low-scoring events. He claimed victory earlier in 2023 at the Vidanta Mexico Open after winning the Houston Open last fall and the 3M Open and Rocket Mortgage last July. In each of those events, he shot at least -15, showing he can excel in setups like TPC River Highlands.
Last week, Finau made the cut and finished T32. He has only missed the cut once since winning in Houston, playing the weekend in 15 of his past 16 tournaments.
In his career, he has played this event seven times. After missing the cut in three straight visits, he produced a T13 last year and has finished in the top 25 in each of his four made cuts on this track. That kind of boom-or-bust result works for GPP lineups since he brings such a high ceiling with his win equity. Getting him at low ownership makes him a great play in this range.
Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Jason Day $8,400
There are 11 players available from $8K to $9K, but finding leverage in this group gets a little tricky. According to our sims, most players in this range have negative SimLeverage scores, indicating their ownership is higher than it should be. The significant exceptions to that are players with shaky recent form: Day, Sungjae Im, and Justin Thomas.
Of the three, I think Day is best poised for a bounce-back week. He played well earlier in the year leading up to his win at TPC Craig Ranch just over a month ago. He’s had to deal with a wrist injury in his past few events, so maybe the extra rest will help him come into this week fresh.
He should be comfortable on this track, where he finished in the top 20 four times in his seven career trips. He fired a 62 in the second round just a couple of years ago, so he has the kind of game to go low here.
When he’s in form, Day can play with the best in the world, and getting him at just 6% ownership and +5.1% SimLeverage makes him stand out as a GPP option in this price range.
Sahith Theegala $8,300
I’ve featured Theegala in these picks numerous times over the past year since a breakthrough win seems inevitable. Even though he has more than twice the projected ownership of Day and a -10% SimLeverage, I’m willing to eat the chalk with Theegala since this is an ideal opportunity to pick up his first official PGA TOUR win.
Theegala came up just short at this event last year, double-bogeying the final hole to give the win to Xander Schauffele. He returns to the event this year in solid form, having made 19 straight cuts dating back to last October with six top 10s in that run of success and a runner-up finish at last fall’s RSM Classic in low-scoring conditions.
Even though he’ll be popular, Theegala offers enough upside to be a strong option at this price point. Just remember to add some extra differentiation to the other spots in your Theegala lineups.
Value PGA DFS Picks
Seamus Power $7,400
Under $7K, Russell Henley is getting much-deserved attention and has the highest ownership projection in the field. Harris English and Min Woo Lee are also solid options, but there are better leverage plays available lower in the $7Ks.
Power’s game gives him a high ceiling at TPC River Highlands, where he has finished in the top 25 each of the past two seasons and made the cut in his past four appearances.
He did miss the cut at both recent majors but has made the cut and played well in lower-scoring events like this one. He placed in the top 20 at the Wells Fargo Championship and the Byron Nelson Championship and also finished T41 at the Memorial.
He comes into this event a little under the radar, but he has enough course history and recent form to suggest there’s good leverage to be found by playing the 36-year-old Irishman.
Beau Hossler $7,100
Hossler has quietly put together a strong spring and early summer after posting a top 25 at the Memorial two weeks ago. He has made seven straight cuts in individual events and added a third-place finish at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, where he partnered with a rising star named Wyndham Clark (maybe you’ve heard of him?).
While he missed the cut at this track last year, Hossler finished in the top 10 two seasons ago at TPC River Highlands and was the runner-up in 2018.
Hossler’s only projected for 1.4% ownership this week, making him a great way to differentiate any lineup. He has the sixth-highest Leverage score in the entire field and the eighth-highest SimLeverage of players in the $7K range.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Chez Reavie $6,700
I like both Mark Hubbard and C.T. Pan in this price range, but both come with relatively high ownership percentages. Instead, for GPP play, let’s focus on a horse for this course in Reavie, who comes with just a 3.6% projected ownership.
Reavie has made the cut in 10 of his 12 career appearances at TPC River Highlands. That includes a win in 2019 and top 25 finishes in the past two years, including a T8 last year bookended by a pair of 67s.
In addition to his excellent history on this track, Reavie has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his past eight tournaments and shot a 65 in his most recent competitive round at the RBC Canadian Open to surge into the top 25. He’s shown enough recent form to be a great sleeper play at a track where he’s had so much success.
Ryan Blaum $6,100
If you’re looking for an ultra-cheap flier that will allow you to stack multiple superstars in your lineups, the sims and the model pinpoint Blaum as the best option. He has the highest Leverage score in the entire field and the second-highest ceiling projection of all players under $7K, trailing only Hubbard.
Blaum also brings the second-highest projected Plus/Minus in the field, behind only Henley.
This will be Blaum’s second PGA TOUR event of the season after making the cut and finishing T48 in the Puerto Rico Open. He has been playing on the Korn Ferry Tour, where he has made the cut in three of his past four events.
Blaum was a Monday qualifier and has a history of success at this event. He played in three straight Travelers Championships between 2016-18, with a T12 in 2017 as his best finish. He’s a long shot, to be sure, but if he makes the cut at this price point, he’ll be a great GPP option at just 0.4% projected ownership.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
THE CJ CUP in South Carolina Top PGA DFS Picks, Values and Sleepers for Large-Field GPPs on DraftKings
The RSM Classic Top PGA DFS Picks, Values and Sleepers for Large-Field GPPs on DraftKings
PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks for THE PLAYERS Championship
AT&T Byron Nelson PGA DFS Stats Preview: Course Fits, GPP Picks, and Values
