The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Tuesday features a 14-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Tyler Glasnow ($9,300) Tampa Bay Rays (-280) at Oakland A’s
Glasnow hasn’t had a 100-inning season since 2018, but he’s been dominant when he’s been able to make it on the field. His strikeout rate has consistently been above 30%, and this year is no exception. Through three starts, he’s striking out 31.3% of his opponents.
Seemingly healthy — at least for now — he’s in an excellent spot today against the A’s. Oakland ranks 25th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching, and their 25% strikeout rate is the second highest in the majors. That gives Glasnow a massive ceiling projection, especially if his pitch/innings count continues to tick higher, as it’s done in each of his starts so far.
Vegas is squarely on his side as well. The A’s 3.3-run implied total is one of the lowest on the slate. Additionally, Tampa’s moneyline is the best tonight — though some of that is due to the Rays’ excellent offense as well. Of course, that means ownership will be high on Glasnow as well.
Still, he might be good enough to eat the chalk on Wednesday, especially for as long as his salary stays on the right side of $10,000.
This might be our last such opportunity, and I won’t be passing on it.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Justin Verlander ($8,000) New York Mets (-106) vs. New York Yankees
This is the first time I can recall writing up Verlander as a value, but his salary has sunk to the point where he certainly fits the description. After getting rocked by the Braves in his last outing, Verlander’s salary is the lowest I can ever recall seeing it as he takes on the cross-town Yankees.
The Yankees are a considerably easier matchup than the Braves, so I’m not entirely concerned about his last start. The Yankees’ full-season numbers are slightly below average against righties, and now they’re missing their best hitter in Aaron Judge. They’re not a team I’ll go out of my way to stack against, but certainly not one to avoid either.
The bigger question mark is around Verlander himself. This is his age-40 season, and he’s looked uncharacteristically mortal so far. He has a 4.85 ERA and a strikeout rate below 20%. If you think Verlander regains his form from recent seasons, he’s a steal — but he’s a bit overpriced if we just look at this season’s numbers.
Both projection sets think the former scenario is more likely, though. Verlander leads THE BAT projections in Pts/Sal and trails only Glasnow in the FantasyLabs projections.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Luis Castillo ($9,800) Seattle Mariners (-190) vs. Miami Marlins
There are a ton of expensive pitchers worth considering today, including Clayton Kershaw ($10,800) and Gerrit Cole ($11,000), in addition to those mentioned already. While they all have plenty going for them today, in terms of tournament options, Castillo might be my favorite.
He’s solidly cheaper than both Kershaw and Cole while checking in behind Kershaw and Glasnow in projected ownership. That’s despite the fact that the Marlins have the lowest implied total on the slate at 3.0 runs. Miami is arguably the softest matchup any of the front-line starters have today.
Also worth noting that Kershaw is popping in our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations:
On top of that, Castillo has been dominant this season. An ERA below 3.00 and a strikeout rate in the 30s is my usual threshold for “elite” DFS pitchers, and he checks both of those boxes. This game also has the second-best Park Factor for pitchers and the best Weather Rating (assuming the roof is open) on the slate.
While I don’t want to pick players solely on those factors, they’re solid tie-breakers when everything else is relatively close.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
DraftKings continues to make Boston stacks far too cheap, especially when rostering the 1-2-3-4-6 stack suggested by our models. The Red Sox are implied for a slate-leading (by a wide margin) 6.5 runs today, but this stack can be had for right around $4,000 per player.
They’re taking on Rockies lefty Austin Gomber ($5,100), who comes in with a 7.57 ERA. His xERA is somehow even higher at 7.60 — he’s not a good pitcher. As we pointed out yesterday, the Rockies also have one of the league’s worst bullpens. Add to that the fact that Boston is slightly better against left-handed pitching, and we have a recipe for a huge day at the plate.
Some combination of Boston hitters is essentially a must-play today, with different options depending on the contest type.
For large-field GPPs, using some back-of-the-order hitters in the stack and/or loading up on lefties could help cut the ownership down.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Vivid Picks has to offer with promo code LABS for a $200 deposit match.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Jonathan India 2B ($4,800 DraftKings; $3,600 FanDuel) Cincinnati Reds at Kansas City Royals (Daniel Lynch)
There’s a handful of Reds hitters with excellent platoon splits against lefties, making them an intriguing lineup to consider tonight. Royals southpaw Daniel Lynch is mediocre at best with a 4.41 ERA this season, and the Reds are implied for nearly five runs.
India is my favorite Red tonight, though, thanks to his solid overall numbers in addition to his platoon splits. He’s bumped his batting average up to .274 this season — without a significant rise in BABIP — while also tying a career-high with 12 stolen bases.
While he’s actually hit lefties somewhat worse this season, his career numbers tell a different story, and it feels fairly safe to bet on some positive regression in that department. He stands out, especially on FanDuel, with a 78% Bargain Rating.
Gunnar Henderson 3B/SS ($3,700 DraftKings; $3,100 FanDuel) Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Jose Berrios)
I frequently reference hitters’ platoon splits in this space, but pitchers’ splits are relevant as well. Toronto’s Berrios has allowed a .331 wOBA to lefties in his career, compared to just a .292 mark against right-handed pitching. Those numbers are even more notable in 2023, where lefties have a .350 wOBA.
Which is one of the reasons Henderson is such a strong play. The lefty leadoff man is hitting just .246 this season, but he already has ten home runs on the season. He’s a boom-or-bust option with a nearly 30% strikeout rate, but that’s a smaller concern tonight against Berrios.
He’s a better GPP play, but still worth considering in cash games thanks to his positional flexibility and reasonable price tag on both sites.
Kyle Tucker OF ($5,000 DraftKings; $3,400 FanDuel) Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals (Josiah Gray)
Gray is another pitcher who’s been beaten up by lefties in his career, with a wOBA more than 40 points higher against left-handed hitters. He’s also due for some major (negative) regression, with a 3.00 ERA on the season but xFIP and SIERA numbers around 5.00.
That makes all the Astros intriguing, but especially Tucker. THE BAT has his DraftKings median projection trailing only Fernando Tatis among outfielders, with Tatis costing $1,400 more on DraftKings tonight. While Astros stacks are fairly expensive, finding the salary to get up to Tucker specifically could be worth it.
