The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Rob Refsnyder ($2,600): Outfielder, Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox are falling out of contention in the AL East but could use Wednesday’s series finale to salvage what they can from their interleague series against the Colorado Rockies. Their batters will have every opportunity to produce against Austin Gomber, and that should mean big things from an undervalued Rob Refsnyder.
Consistency has been an issue for Refsnyder. Still, he rarely falters against southpaws, giving him a significant advantage in tonight’s matchup. Refsnyder has torched left-handed pitchers to the tune of a .471 on-base percentage and .464 slugging percentage. Moreover, 13 of his 19 RBI have come off lefties, and four of his six extra-base hits. Using our aggregate projections, Refsnyder is the Plus/Minus leader and should deliver a top-tier fantasy performance against the Rockies.
Although he’s made a name for himself over his recent sample, Ward’s salary does not yet accurately reflect his fantasy ceiling. On that basis, he’s the slate leader in Projected Plus/Minus and should exceed the value of his modest salary.
Drew Waters ($2,100): Outfielder, Kansas City Royals
Through a modest 49 plate appearances, Drew Waters hasn’t achieved the level of success that we saw from him in 2022. Nevertheless, he’s poised as a breakout candidate as he climbs back toward normal ranges over his coming games. That makes him the perfect buy-low candidate on tonight’s slate against the Cincinnati Reds.
The switch-hitter has been ineffective from both sides of the plate; however, he’s having more success as a lefty. Waters’ on-base and slugging percentages increase from that side of the batter’s box, with his OPS improving to .556 against right-handed pitchers. Still, that’s way off what we’ve seen from him last season, as he compiled a .824 OPS, representing eight of his 12 extra-base hits and most of his run production metrics.
Waters is poised to recapture that form against Ben Lively. The Reds’ pitcher ranks in the 23rd percentile in expected slugging percentage and 26th percentile in barrel rate. Waters will have runners on base ahead of him, giving him more chances to improve his standing.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Tyler Glasnow ($9,400 DraftKings, $10,100 FanDuel) vs. Oakland Athletics
Even before Tyler Glasnow rejoined the rotation, everything was going right for the Tampa Bay Rays. With their ace back, we’re seeing just how tough they will be to eliminate in a postseason series. But that’s putting the cart way ahead of the horse, as the Rays just have to figure out how to get past the lowly Oakland Athletics. Glasnow should help them get back on the winning track on Wednesday night.
The hard-throwing righty has re-kindled his flame of dominance. Glasnow has allowed just two earned runs across his last 11.1 innings pitched, striking out 12 along the way. He’s effectively using his three-pitch mix, inducing a 31.3% strikeout rate and 32.2% whiff rate.
Glasnow comes into Wednesday’s inter-divisional showdown on the heels of his season’s best performance. He gave up just one hit and three walks, going a full 6.0 innings before departing. That lowered his WHIP to 1.09 on the season, and it’s projected to go even lower as he rounds into his All-Star form.
The Oakland Coliseum is renowned as a pitcher-friendly stadium, positively impacting Glasnow’s already amplified fantasy value tonight.
He leads our median and ceiling projections and is poised for a season-best performance against the A’s.
Hitter
Mookie Betts ($6,500 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) vs. Chicago White Sox
The Los Angeles Dodgers are finally snapping out of their mini funk. After dropping five of six and relinquishing the NL West lead, LA has won two of the past three. Mookie Betts is leading the charge and should continue his onslaught against the Chicago White Sox.
Betts comes into Wednesday’s inter-league showdown on a seven-game hitting streak. Over that stretch, he’s totaled nine hits, eight runs scored, and five RBI. Further, he’s sustained his .534 slugging percentage throughout, recording one double and two home runs while also mixing in a stolen base.
Betts’ production is coming from a sustainable place, as he continues to rate as one of the elite hitters in all of baseball. The former MVP ranks in the 93rd percentile in expected slugging percentage, thanks in part to an 11.8% barrel rate and 46.5% hard-hit percentage.
Those stats could climb even higher against Mike Clevinger. Clevinger ranks in the bottom third of MLB pitchers in expected slugging percentage and expected ERA, giving Betts an unneeded advantage at the plate. We’re betting the Dodgers’ leadoff man ends the night as one of the top-performing players on the slate.
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More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Clayton Kershaw ($10,800 DraftKings, $11,100 FanDuel) vs. Chicago White Sox
You’d be right for thinking the baseball Gods have something against the Dodgers. LA has dealt with a litany of injuries, preventing their staff from operating at full strength throughout the campaign. Ironically, Clayton Kershaw has avoided ailment (knock on wood) and has been a stabilizing force for the NL West contenders.
The Claw hasn’t lost a step this year. He continues to deliver top-tier analytics, relying on his devastating yacker and knee-bending slider to rank in the top 18% of pitchers in whiff rate. Consequently, Kershaw has propped up his strikeout rate to 30.6%, the best since 2016. Additionally, he’s saving his best stuff for the dog days of summer, compiling 18 strikeouts over his last 14.0 innings pitched while allowing just two earned runs and 12 baserunners.
Virtually every time he’s doing the rubber, Kershaw rates as one of the best pitchers available, and today is no exception. Look for the Dodgers’ ace to deliver another memorable performance against the White Sox.
Hitters
Kyle Tucker ($5,000 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) vs. Washington Nationals
Houston Astros’ outfielder Kyle Tucker is in a unique spot. The former fifth-overall pick has All-Star-worthy numbers but hasn’t achieved his lofty standards from years past. He remains below his career benchmarks in slugging percentage, implying further growth from Tucker is on the horizon.
Tucker’s OPS has fallen to .787 this season, below his career average of .830 and even further behind his career-best of .557. This decrease has come despite solid underlying metrics, putting him in the top 13% of hitters in expected weighted on-base average and expected slugging percentage. In fact, Tucker’s slugging percentage is 70 points below expected, implying that he’s a progression candidate as actual stats catch up with expected.
As it stands, Tucker’s fantasy salary is lower than where it should be. He remains a threat whenever he steps to the plate and is due for more extra-base hits. He’ll get to prove naysayers wrong on Wednesday, and we don’t expect him to disappoint.
Fernando Tatis Jr. ($6,400 DraftKings, $4,50 FanDuel) vs. Cleveland Guardians
If there was ever any doubt that Fernando Tatis Jr. would eventually round into form, he’s put those thoughts to rest. The two-time Silver Slugger has re-emerged as one of the pre-eminent hitters in the game, using his recent sample to solidify his reputation as an MVP candidate.
So far this month, Tatis Jr. is swatting a mind-numbing .795 slugging percentage, bumping his OPS up to 1.255. He’s got hits in all but one of his 11 outings in June, totaling 17 hits, including six doubles and four home runs. Predictably, this has resulted in a surge in his run production, with Tatis Jr. collecting 14 RBI and ten runs scored.
Aaron Civale is all that stands between Tatis Jr. and another elite performance. Considering Civale’s ineffective whiff rate and disappointing underlying metrics, we’re giving the advantage to Tatis Jr. in this one.
