The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Tuesday features a 14-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Max Scherzer ($9,800) New York Mets (-152) vs. New York Yankees
Scherzer may not be the force of nature he once was, but after a rough start to the season, he’s been excellent in recent contests. His streak of 30-point DraftKings performances was halted his last time out, but he still has a respectable showing in a tough matchup against the Braves.
This time, he has a considerably easier matchup against the cross-town rival Yankees. The Yankees rank below average in wRC+ against righties this season, and that’s looking at their full-season numbers. Those numbers aren’t especially relevant with Aaron Judge on the disabled list, as he was by far their best hitter this season.
This is why Vegas is firmly on the side of the Mets, giving the Yankees one of the lowest implied totals on the slate at just 3.5 runs. We do have to pay a bit of an ownership premium on Scherzer today, but it’s fairly reasonable considering the massive 14-game slate at hand. That keeps him firmly in the GPP conversation while being an excellent cash game choice.
Scherzer leads both THE BAT and FantasyLabs projections for median and ceiling.
Be sure to check out who our simulations like on PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy:
MLB DFS Value Pick
Kutter Crawford ($5,900) Boston Red Sox (-225) vs. Colorado Rockies
Crawford has made considerable strides this season after having a cup of coffee in the big leagues in 2021 and making 12 starts last season. This year, his ERA is down to 3.68, with a very respectable 24.5% strikeout rate. Crawford has been even better than those numbers, though, making him a solid positive regression candidate.
His xERA is nearly a full run lower at 2.87, though his FIP and xFIP are slightly higher. (That likely means he’s been getting above-average defensive support from the Red Sox, which at this point in the year, we should expect to continue.) More impressively, his swinging strike rate is 13.8%. That “should” lead to a strikeout rate of nearly 30% in the long run.
All of this comes for just $5,900 and with an excellent matchup against the Rockies. Colorado ranks 24th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching and, like the Yankees, are without one of their top hitters in Charlie Blackmon. They’ve likely perceived as a slightly more difficult matchup thanks to their scoring at home, but the park-adjusted wRC+ number tells the full story.
The potential issue with Crawford is his role as an occasional reliever. Just four of his appearances this season have been starts, and he’s lasted only three innings in each of his last two. However, Boston appears to be trying to stretch him out into more of a traditional starter. Don’t expect him to last deep into this one, but he has a solid chance of making it long enough to be eligible for a win. That uncertainty is probably too much for cash games, but he’s a solid GPP option.
Crawford is one of the top Pts/Sal options in THE BAT projections today.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Hunter Brown ($10,500) Houston Astros (-270) vs. Washington Nationals
While Brown is a bit too expensive for his likeliest outcome today, he’s also an excellent GPP play. Both of those things can be true — and, in fact, are somewhat correlated — since his elevated price tag should keep much of the field away from him, especially with other strong pitching options carrying slightly lesser price tags.
Brown is officially still a rookie this season after seeing 20 innings of action last season and is firmly in the rookie of the year discussion. He has a 3.69 ERA through 12 starts while averaging nearly six innings per appearance and a 28.1% strikeout rate.
As is the theme of all of today’s picks, he also has an excellent matchup with the bottom-feeding Nationals. Washington ranks 27th against right-handed pitching by wRC+, with the teams below them all either facing southpaws or not on the main slate.
While I prefer to save the salary on players with similar projections in the $9,000 range for cash games, Brown is an excellent GPP option with slate-breaking upside.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
Boston’s 5.8-run implied total leads the slate by nearly half a run today, making a full Red Sox onslaught (hitter stack and Kutter Crawford) an intriguing GPP option today. Crawford’s cheap price tag means it won’t break the bank, and we build in some correlation by stacking the hitter and pitcher together.
Rockies starter Chase Anderson has a 2.25 ERA this season, but that comes with some major caveats. He’s only made five starts this season, so some of his success was in much shorter relief appearances. Even then, he’s been incredibly lucky — his SIERA, xERA, and xFIP are all into the fours.
Boston should be able to exploit that with their powerful lineup, and the Rockies’ bullpen is one of the worst in the majors. Additionally, this game has the best Park Factor for hitters on the slate and a hitter-friendly umpire behind the dish as well.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Nick Pratto 1B/OF ($3,100 DraftKings; $2,900 FanDuel) Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds (Brandon Williamson)
Generally, I don’t like to roster players with .434 BABIP numbers — that’s an unsustainable figure that means they’ve been producing well above their true ability and, thus, usually overpriced. However, we can make an exception for Pratto, who’s still reasonably cheap on both sites.
He’s the top-rated first basemen in our tournament model when using either projection set, making him a fairly obvious choice. His ridiculous 34.5% strikeout rate is an issue, but he’s a boom-or-bust option with solid power. He’s also set to lead off for the Royals tonight.
With Kansas City implied for 5.3 runs, he’s too cheap for his premium spot in their lineup.
Mauricio Dubon 2B/OF ($3,500 DraftKings; $2,900 FanDuel) Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals (Patrick Corbin)
Don’t forget about Houston tonight. They have an excellent matchup with our old friend Patrick Corbin, who has a 4.89 ERA (not great!) but a 6.22 xERA (even worse!) on the season. Dubon is a .300 hitter this season, with even better stats against lefties. He’s hitting southpaws to the tune of a .410 average this season.
This is really more of a post about Houston in general, though. They’re a top 10 team against left-handed pitching and implied for more than five runs today. Dubon stands out, though, with his cheap price tag, excellent platoon splits, and positional versatility.
Bryce Harper 1BOF ($5,800 DraftKings; $3,500 FanDuel) Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks (Zach Davies
For whatever reason, FanDuel continues to price the Phillies at a bargain. Harper stands out there, with a 98% Bargain Rating, but his teammate Kyle Schwarber ($5,300 DraftKings; $3,500 FanDuel) is close at 92%.
Both players are among the top projected hitters today, ranking inside the top five among all outfielders in median projections in THE BAT. That’s good enough for them to be in play on DraftKings as well, but the ridiculous pricing discrepancy makes them must-plays on FanDuel.
