The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Close out the weekend with an interesting 10-game slate starting at 12:40 p.m ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Kevin Gausman ($11,400) Toronto Blue Jays (-210) vs. Minnesota Twins
The strikeout leader in the American League, Kevin Gausman has found another gear this season on the mound. His 2.63 ERA is well below his 3.86 ERA mark over 11 big-league seasons.
Gausman is 5-3 overall on the season with an impressive 34.3 K% and 1.07 WHIP. This pace may not be sustainable based on his previous career results, but there’s no reason yet to jump out of the flames. Gausman has scored 27-plus DraftKings points in seven of his last eight starts.
He is coming off his best start of the season, striking out 13 Astros in seven innings on June 6. The Twins may be a surprise division leader through 65 games, but they have struck out the most of any MLB team this season.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Hunter Greene ($8,000) Cincinnati Reds (+102) at St. Louis Cardinals
Another strikeout extraordinaire, Hunter Greene has whiffed at least eight batters in each of his last four starts for the Reds.
His overall numbers are not eye-popping, with a 1-4 record and 3.92 ERA, but that 33.0 K% makes up for a lot in fantasy production. Over his last two starts, Greene has allowed just one earned run and two hits in 12 innings while striking out 19.
He does have a tendency to give up the long bomb, with three games allowing multiple home runs in his last six starts. If he can keep the Cardinals in the park Sunday, the models like Greene to be a strong bargain option on the slate.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Freddy Peralta ($8,800) Milwaukee Brewers (-210) vs. Oakland Athletics
Picking pitchers playing against the Athletics has been a winning formula so far in 2023. On Sunday, that strategy elevates Brewers right-hander Freddy Peralta into the fantasy limelight.
Peralta is 5-5 this season with a 4.55 ERA in 12 starts. He is allowing a .319 xwOBA and .414 xSLG. Peralta posted his first positive Plus/Minus start since May 8 in his last outing with nine strikeouts against the Orioles.
The potential is there for Peralta with six 20+ DraftKings-point games on the season. The Athletics are showing signs of life on a four-game winning streak. That said, they still have the second-lowest team batting average in the league.
You can also take advantage of Peralta’s matchup with his strikeouts props on PrizePicks. Be sure to check out all the pick’ems PrizePicks has to offer with PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 deposit match.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Model when generated by projected points belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
The Braves are in the top three in the league in home runs, batting average, and OPS. They come into Sunday’s game with a seven-game winning streak. during which they’ve averaged 6.86 runs per game.
Ronald Acuna Jr. continues to justify his elevated salary, batting .389/.405/.667 in June. He also leads the National League with 28 stolen bases.
Next in the batting order, and the salary order, is Matt Olson. Olson may have a .227 batting average, but his power numbers keep him in play for fantasy owners. He had eight home runs in April and nine in May, but he is still searching for his first June long bomb.
Trevor Williams gets the nod for the Washington Nationals in Atlanta on Sunday. Williams is 2-4 with a 4.15 ERA in 12 starts. His has given up 12 home runs on the year and is near the bottom of the league with a .514 xSLG allowed.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters who stand out.
Gunnar Henderson 3B ($3,400 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City (Carlos Hernandez)
At 21-years-old, Gunnar Henderson is having the best month of his brief Major League career in June. He is batting .421/.450/.895 this month with three home runs in 20 plate appearances.
Henderson’s season-long batting totals of .225/.343/.428 won’t light anyone’s hair on fire, but his last three games with 17-plus DraftKings points in each are exciting at his salary level.
Carlos Hernandez is making just his fourth start of the season, spending most of his time in the bullpen this year. He has 26 appearances with a 4.31 ERA and 0-3 record in 31.1 innings. This is a good spot for Henderson and the Orioles.
Nick Castellanos OF ($4,800 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Victor Gonzalez)
Nick Castellanos is having one of the best seasons of his 11-year career. He is batting .310/.357/.488 on the season with seven home runs and 36 RBI.
Castellanos showed his ceiling potential on June 2 against the Nationals with two homers, five RBI, and 47 DraftKings points.
The Phillies and Dodgers have one of the highest implied totals on the slate. Castellanos will initially face left-hander Victor Gonzalez, who is making his second start of the season for the Dodgers. Gonzalez is 1-2 with a 2.70 ERA in 16.2 innings this season, but expect multiple pitchers to take the bump for Los Angeles throughout the game.
Steven Kwan OF ($3,800 DraftKings, $2,900 FanDuel) Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros (Brandon Bielak)
The power numbers may never break records, but Steven Kwan has become a productive MLB hitter in two big-league seasons. He is among the league leaders for lowest strikeout rate and adds value on the base paths with 11 stolen bags in 2023.
He is batting .258/.341/.348 on the season and excels against right-handed pitching with a .344 wOBA and .107 ISO. He faces a righty in Brandon Bielak for the Astros on Sunday. Bielak is 3-2 with a 3.35 ERA on the season, but he allows an elevated 50.0 hard hit % and .365 xwOBA.
The model loves Kwan as a value play Sunday in Cleveland.
