The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Thursday features a five-game slate starting at 7:07 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Spencer Strider ($12,000) Atlanta Braves (-180) vs. New York Mets
What more is there to say about Strider? The sophomore fireballer has somehow maintained a 40% strikeout rate over almost 70 innings of work while sporting a 2.97 ERA. If anything, he’s been even better than those numbers indicate: all of his ERA predictors are lower than his actual ERA.
Those numbers make him a must-play on almost any slate, regardless of matchup, odds, or price tag. That goes double for today since the five-game slate leaves us short of other options.
The only case for fading Strider today would be based around ownership — he’ll be massively chalky in all contest types — but that’s not enough reason for me. I’ll be building all of my lineups around him today while looking to get contrarian elsewhere.
Strider is head and shoulders above the field in median and ceiling projection in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT systems.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Randy Vasquez ($4,000) New York Yankees (-135) vs. Chicago White Sox
Vasquez was my value pick yesterday before the Yankees game was postponed due to air-quality issues related to the Canadian wildfires. He’s an even better play relative to the field today, as the smaller slate means there are fewer options to choose from. Here’s what I said yesterday:
“It’s rare to see any pitchers priced at the minimum on DraftKings, with the exception usually being “openers” who are expected to last only an inning or two. That makes Vasquez an intriguing option on Wednesday, as he draws an easy matchup against the White Sox.
This will be Vasquez’s second big league appearance, but he acquitted himself well in his debut. He scored 13.1 DraftKings points over 4.2 innings last month against the Padres — a much tougher matchup than he has tonight. Encouragingly, six of his 14 outs were strikeouts.
That’s probably an unsustainable punchout rate for the rookie, but it’s still a good sign. Besides, he doesn’t need anywhere near that level of projection to justify his salary tonight. He’s a must for cash games and deserves a long look in GPPs as well.”
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Justin Verlander ($8,600) New York Mets (+150) at Atlanta Braves
Yesterday we discussed Max Scherzer as a possible GPP option. Today, it’s his teammate Verlander getting the nod. It’s an eerily similar scenario for Verlander: A once-dominant ace whose numbers have regressed this season, in a difficult matchup against the potent Braves lineup.
Like Scherzer, Verlander has struggled this year but is coming off a strong performance. His last outing was against Toronto, and he allowed one run through six innings while picking up eight strikeouts. Overall, he has a 4.25 ERA and a 20.5% strikeout rate this season.
That last start was an encouraging sign that the 40-year-old isn’t finished as an elite pitcher, though it remains to be seen if he can sustain that moving forward. For what it’s worth, Atlanta is a somewhat easier matchup than the Blue Jays, which is another good sign for Verlander.
Either way, on a small slate with no clear number two option behind Strider, Verlander is worth a long look, especially at his low projected ownership. If he looks like the Verlander of old tonight, it’s unlikely we’ll have another shot to roster him at single-digit ownership this season.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Angels:
While there’s a clear top pitching option on the slate today, things are more up in the air on the offensive side. Four of the ten teams in action tonight have a game total between 4.7 and 5.0 runs, with little to separate them on paper. Figuring out which team to stack will be the key to tonight’s slate, and the Angels are a strong candidate.
They’re taking on the Cubs and lefty Drew Smyly ($7,000), a solid pitcher but certainly not an elite one. The Angels have been excellent against lefties this season, though, with a 120 wRC+ that ranks third in all of baseball. They have a much less impressive 107 wRC+ against righties, so we should generally be trying to target them when facing southpaws.
Los Angeles is also reasonably priced, with cheaper options balancing out the hefty price tags of Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. Be sure to keep an eye on their lineup this afternoon, though. Los Angeles frequently shuffles the top of their order around, which could create even more value if a cheaper batter gets bumped up to the leadoff spot.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Yan Gomes C ($3,000 DraftKings; $2,600 FanDuel) Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Angels (Reid Detmers)
Gomes has been one of the better-hitting catchers in baseball for most of the last decade, and much of that has been built around his success against lefties. He’s seen a 50-point jump to his batting average against left-handed pitching for his career. It’s been even more drastic this year, with Gomes hitting a ridiculous .356 against southpaws.
While I don’t expect him to sustain his 2023 number all season, it’s clear that with more than a ten-year sample size, he sees the ball much better against opposite-handed pitching. That’s the matchup he draws today against Detmers.
It’s a pretty miserable day at the position overall, so getting Gomes on the right side of his strong platoon splits is more than enough to justify a roster spot.
Steven Kwan OF ($4,000 DraftKings; $2,800 FanDuel) Cleveland Guardians vs. Boston Red Sox (Matt Dermody)
It looks like it will be a bullpen game for the Red Sox tonight. They promoted minor league reliever Dermody to get the “start” on Thursday, but he’ll likely be more of an opener. That’s a good sign for the Guardians’ offense, especially their leadoff hitter Kwan.
Kwan and Dermody are both lefties, which would typically be a reason to fade the hitter. However, Kwan has actually hit southpaws better in his brief big-league career. More importantly, he’s unlikely to face Dermody more than once tonight. Kwan is a fine play on DraftKings but a near-lock on FanDuel, where he holds a 78% Bargain Rating.
