The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Tyler Freeman ($2,000): Second Base/Shortstop, Cleveland Guardians
Fenway Park remains one of the most hitter-friendly venues in the majors, and that benefits Tyler Freeman and the Cleveland Guardians on Wednesday. The Guardians have recorded four or more runs in five of their past seven. We expect Freeman to get in on the action in this inter-divisional battle.
The Guardians’ middle infielder has been a modest offensive contributor in limited action this season. Freeman has been called upon intermittently but has spent most of the past week in the lineup. As is the case with most bargain values, his production has not yet caught up to some promising underlying metrics.
Freeman’s hard-hit rate has nearly doubled compared to last year, jumping to an above-average 42.3%. Additionally, he’s making better sweet spot contact, yielding a superior expected slugging percentage which has not yet translated to improved results in the batter’s box.
The Guardians project as a top offensive team on Wednesday, and Freeman is the perfect buy-low candidate. We like him to live up to his ceiling, earning the distinction as one of the top values on the main slate.
Miles Mastrobuoni ($2,200): Second/Third Base, Chicago Cubs
Over the past few weeks, Miles Mastrobuoni has been a mainstay in the Chicago Cubs lineup. Although he has yet to deliver an elite fantasy performance, we like his prospects of shaking that reputation against Jaime Barria and the Los Angeles Angels.
Mastrobuoni is an intriguing value. The former Tampa Bay Rays draft pick bottomed out at the end of May when his slugging percentage dipped to .191. He’s recorded hits in two straight games since then and should continue to progress as actual metrics catch up with expected. Mastrobuoni is well off his expected slugging percentage and batting average despite producing an above-average hard-hit rate and launch angle.
Barria relies on his slider more than nearly every other pitcher, turning to it over 50.0% of the time. Mastrobuoni’s best whiff rate comes against breaking pitches, setting him up for a strong showing against the Halos.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Corbin Burnes ($10,200 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel) vs. Baltimore Orioles
The Baltimore Orioles have been one of the biggest surprises this season, no thanks to their bats. The O’s have middling offensive statistics, ranking 17th in on-base and 13th in slugging percentages. Worse, they’ve been stymied over their recent sample, putting together the seventh-worst OPS over the last 15 days. That should allow Corbin Burnes to continue his recently improved play as he rounds back into his former Cy Young form.
The Milwaukee Brewers’ ace started the campaign terribly, allowing ten runs through the first 9.1 innings pitched. Since then, Burnes has allowed three or fewer earned runs in all but one of his starts, resulting in a 2.83 ERA. Moreover, he’s found his strikeout pitches, sitting down seven or more in four of his previous five starts.
As expected, there’s an analytics component to Burnes’ performances on the mound. Thanks to his five-pitch arsenal, the two-time All-Star ranks in the 71st percentile or better in whiff rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit percentage. Burnes delivers a 24.6% whiff rate or better on four of his five offerings, keeping hitters guessing in the batter’s box.
According to our projections, Burnes is the top arm available on the main slate. We’re anticipating another glowing performance from him as he evades a struggling Orioles lineup.
Hitter
Mookie Betts ($5,800 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Times are tough for the Los Angeles Dodgers. LA has dropped three straight and four of its last five to fall out of the top spot in the NL West. They’ll need their best players to step up as they try to re-awaken their offense, starting with MVP candidate Mookie Betts.
The five-time Silver Slugger hasn’t missed a beat in his age-30 season. Betts ranks among the top 10% of hitters in average exit velocity, expected slugging percentage, and walk rate while remaining one of the most disciplined batters at the dish. He sits in the 99th percentile in chase rate, translating to a .391 expected weight on-base average.
More importantly, Betts is producing runs with those sterling analytics. The Dodgers’ utilityman has a .529 slugging percentage on the season, recording 10 hits over his previous seven outings. Further, he’s been a scoring machine, ranking sixth in the MLB in runs, eight of which have come over the seven-game sample.
Betts has the added advantage of stepping into the batter’s box against Brandon Williamson. Not only does his slugging percentage jump to .607 against southpaws, but Williamson has produced a .522 expected slugging percentage and 6.30 expected ERA. The Dodgers are poised to breakout, and Betts will lead the charge.
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More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Max Scherzer ($9,700 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel) vs. Atlanta Braves
It wasn’t the start to the season Max Scherzer was hoping for. Through his first five starts of 2023, Scherzer had a 5.56 ERA with 1.41 walks and hits per inning pitched and just two wins to show for his efforts. Nevertheless, the three-time Cy Young winner has righted the ship since then, going a perfect 3-0 with a sparkling 1.08 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. He’s poised to continue that standard against a division rival on Wednesday.
Scherzer is still digging himself out of his early-season rut, but he’s made serious headway lately. He’s got 17 strikeouts over his past two starts and appears to have all five of his pitches working. Scherzer’s got a 30.6% whiff rate or better on his 4-seamer, slider, and cutter, reserving his curveball as a potential put-away offering to keep batters chasing.
Although the Braves have been one of the best-hitting teams in the majors, Scherzer has been at his best over his recent sample. Based on our aggregate projections, we’re anticipating that upward trend to continue and Scherzer to end the night with one of the premier fantasy scores.
Hitters
Shohei Ohtani ($6,100 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Cubs
Jameson Taillon has been serving up meatballs all season, and Shohei Ohtani is ready to feast. The Angels’ slugger is the odds-on favorite to take home his second AL MVP and should live up to that billing versus the Cubs.
Ohtani’s stats speak for themselves. He ranks sixth in the majors in home runs and seventh in slugging percentage while sitting top 25 in hits, RBI, and runs scored. Fantasy-wise, that’s compatible with what Taillon has to offer. The Cubs’ pitcher is giving up a .479 expected slugging percentage and 5.09 expected ERA, both of which put him among the bottom 22% of pitchers.
As a fixture atop the Angels’ lineup, Ohtani gets every chance to deliver on a nightly basis. He projects well against one of the most generous pitchers in the league, making him one of the top batters to build around.
Jake Fraley ($4,500 DraftKings, $3,100 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
You’d be forgiven for overlooking Jake Fraley so far this season. Bright spots have been few and far between for the Cincinnati Reds; however, now is the time to take notice of what Fraley has to offer.
The Reds’ outfielder has seven hits over his last four games, including two homers, three RBI, and six runs scored. Additionally, Fraley has four stolen bases over that stretch, adding an extra dimension to his fantasy appeal. Virtually all of his production has come against righties, and Noah Syndergaard doesn’t offer much resistance. Syndergaard gives up one of the worst expected batting averages in the MLB, ranking in the 14th percentile in expected slugging percentage.
Fraley’s salary still hasn’t caught up to what he has to offer. There are some notable names on tonight’s docket, almost none of which present with the same fantasy ceiling as Fraley.
