The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for Thursday’s five-game main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Dominic Smith ($2,100): First Base, Washington Nationals
It hasn’t been all bad for the Washington Nationals this year. The perennial basement dwellers remain a stepping stone in the NL East, but they’re getting decent offensive production from most of their lineup. Included in that is Dominic Smith, who projects as one of the best values on the board on Thursday.
Although he was held hitless yesterday, Smith has had a productive few weeks. The Nationals’ first baseman has 19 hits over his past 17 games, getting on base in all but two of those contests. Moreover, he’s been a run-production contributor over that stretch, scoring eight times and knocking in six. The surge in productivity has helped Smith re-establish himself in the middle of the Nats’ lineup, with Smith expected to bat fifth again in the series finale against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Even with the hot streak, Smith remains below his expected slugging percentage, implying further progression is anticipated. The former first-round pick can end the month with a strong showing against Noah Syndergaard, who ranks in the bottom 20% of pitchers in expected slugging percentage and expected ERA.
Jared Walsh ($2,200): First Base, Los Angeles Angels
It’s been a tepid return to the majors for Jared Walsh. The 29-year-old recently returned after a bought with neurological symptoms, recording three hits in his first 29 plate appearances. Still, we like him to reach his fantasy ceiling versus Lance Lynn and the Chicago White Sox.
His at-bats haven’t been productive, but some noteworthy metrics are sprouting from Walsh’s efforts. The former All-Star is delivering above-average hard-hit and sweet spot rates. Combined with his 11.9-degree launch angle, he should have a better slugging percentage than his modest .136 benchmark. We should start to see his analytics work in his favor and Walsh to improve off his sluggish start.
With the likes of Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout in the lineup, the supporting cast doesn’t have much to do. Get on base, and the MVP candidates will take care of the rest. We like Walsh to fulfill his end of the bargain and build off his solid metrics.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Shane Bieber ($9,400 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Shane Bieber burst onto the MLB scene, cementing himself as one of the top pitchers in the bigs after winning the AL Cy Young in just his third professional season. Although he hasn’t regained his award-winning form, Bieber remains a force on the mound.
The two-time All-Star has allowed two or fewer earned runs in five of his last six starts, earning a quality start in all but one of those contests. Granted, Bieber’s strikeout metrics haven’t been up to par relative to previous seasons; he’s poised for a breakout effort against the Baltimore Orioles.
We’ve seen a steady decrease in Bieber’s fastball usage this year, resulting in increased reliance on his superior slider and cutter. The Cleveland Guardians ace induces a 29.6% whiff rate between the offerings, turning to either as a put-away pitch. Consequently, we are anticipating more robust strikeout metrics from Bieber over his coming games.
As dangerous as the Orioles can be, they have 42 strikeouts through the first five games of their six-game homestand. Bieber should add to those woes with another exceptional performance on the main slate.
Hitter
Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6,400 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel) vs. Oakland Athletics
Shockingly, the Oakland Athletics have taken the first two games against the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves. We suspect the Braves salvage the series finale thanks to another MVP-caliber showing from Ronald Acuna Jr.
Acuna Jr. is doing everything right. The two-time Silver Slugger leads the National League in runs scored and stolen bases, ranking second in hits and 18th in RBI. More importantly, those stats come from a sustainable place, with Acuna Jr. continuing to deliver some of the best analytics in the majors.
The Braves’ right fielder sits in the 100th percentile in expected slugging percentage, expected weighted on-base average, and expected batting average. Further, his 54.6% hard-hit rate puts him in the 94th percentile, and his 14.7% barrel rate is good enough for the 90th percentile.
The A’s are trotting out James Kaprielian and his 8.45 ERA out for Wednesday’s matinee. The soft-throwing righty will be serving them up to one of the best hitters in the game, allowing Acuna Jr. to meet, if not exceed, his fantasy ceiling.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Vivid Picks has to offer with promo code LABS for a $200 deposit match.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Mitch Keller ($10,800 DraftKings, $11,200 FanDuel) vs. San Francisco Giants
The Pittsburgh Pirates have emerged as a legitimate threat in the NL. Several key contributors have taken big steps in their development, facilitating the improved standing. Included in that is Mitch Keller, who has shot to the top of Cy Young futures boards as one of the best pitchers in the league. Not surprisingly, he’s once again one of the top arms available on today’s docket.
Keller has been absolutely filthy this month. In five May starts, the 27-year-old has recorded at least eight strikeouts each time out. Additionally, he’s held four of his five opponents to two or fewer runs while lasting at least 6.0 innings in all but one of those outings.
Granted, Keller’s latest performance was his most forgettable, but that sets Wednesday’s start up as an ideal bounce-back spot for the sinker ball pitcher. We’re betting Keller lives up to his projections and gets back on track with an A+ effort against the free-swinging Giants.
Hitters
Mookie Betts ($5,900 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel) vs. Washington Nationals
According to our aggregate projections, almost nobody rates better than Mookie Betts on today’s slate. The Dodgers right fielder has an elite ceiling and solid analytics, setting him up for an ideal pitching matchup against Patrick Corbin.
Ten years into his MLB career, Betts remains a primary contributor for the Dodgers. The former MVP ranks third on the team in OPS and home runs, driving in the fourth-most runs and coming around to score the second-most. Betts has been a relevant factor in LA’s recent sample, recording 14 runs over his last 12 games and scoring in all but one of those contests.
Betts has an excellent track record of getting the better of southpaws, and that’s incompatible with Corbin’s underlying metrics. Betts’ OPS jumps to .566 against lefties, and Corbin’s .508 expected slugging percentage puts him in the ninth percentile among MLB pitchers. Circumstances favor Betts in this NL showdown.
Marcus Semien ($6,000 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Tigers
Marcus Semien has had something to prove over his recent sample, and he shows no signs of slowing down Wednesday against the Detroit Tigers.
The Texas Rangers’ second baseman comes into the series finale on a 19-game hitting streak. Over that stretch, the former Silver Slugger has ten extra-base hits, 16 RBI, and 19 runs scored. The sustainability of those performances looks promising as Semien has the second-best hard-hit and sweet spot rates of his career.
Semien is once again planted atop the Rangers’ batting order, giving him the most opportunities to continue his scorching pace. He’s worth rostering on any format as he continues to throttle the ball against the Tigers.
