The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Dominic Smith ($2,200): First Baseman, Washington Nationals
The power numbers have not been there this season for Smith, but the model still likes him as a low-cost dart throw today against the Nationals.
With only one home run, Smith is batting .267/.357/.304 on the year with a low 26.9 hard hit %. He does have five positive Plus/Minus results in his last seven games, including a couple of multi-hit games.
The Nationals take on Yu Darvish and the Padres. Darvish is 2-3 with a 3.56 ERA in eight starts. He gave up four earned runs in 5.1 innings in his last start.
Brayan Bello ($6,300): Pitcher, Boston Red Sox
After a 2-8 record last year in his first big league season, Bello has improved to 3-1 with a 4.45 ERA so far in 2023.
All three wins have come in his last three starts, with an impressive 2.81 ERA in May. Bello has two straight 19+ DraftKings point performances, a clear value at his affordable salary.
The 24-year-old right-hander has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate, just behind Eury Perez. Despite their superstars, the Angels are in the bottom third of the MLB in team strikeout rate. Bello has an opportunity to continue his May hot streak at a bargain value to fantasy owners.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Spencer Strider ($12,300 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The ceiling is always high when Strider takes the mound. He leads the National League with 86 strikeouts and a .183 batting average against.
In his third major league season, Strider is 4-1 overall with a 2.96 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. He has a crazy 41.5 K% and averages over nine strikeouts per start with three double-digit whiff games on the year.
Of course, fantasy owners have to pay up, way up, for Strider’s production. Even at the elevated price tag, he has produced a positive Plus/Minus result in all but one start. That start came six days ago when he gave up four earned runs to the Texas Rangers in five innings.
The capable Dodgers lineup has one of the lower implied run totals on the slate.
Hitter
Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6,500 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
What a start to 2023 for Acuna Jr. Arguably the best player in the league so far this season, Acuna Jr. continues to produce consistent fantasy goodness. He is batting .342/.430/.598 on the year and leads the National League with 46 runs scored and 19 stolen bases.
During his current 12-game hit streak, Acuna Jr. has nine double-digit DraftKings point totals and five home runs. He has topped the 20-point mark seven times on the year to justify his high ceiling potential.
Today, Acuna Jr. and the Braves get a juicy matchup against Bobby Miller for the Dodgers. The 24-year-old makes his major league debut after four minor league starts in 2023 where he amassed a 1-1 record with a 5.65 ERA.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Gerrit Cole ($11,200 DraftKings, $11,100 FanDuel) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Cole remains undefeated on the season at 5-0 with an impressive 2.01 ERA in 10 starts. He has not been as dominant in May with a 3.68 ERA, compared to his 1.35 ERA in April.
His +4.52 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games is a bit deceiving. Despite throwing six scoreless innings in his last start against the Blue Jays on May 17, Cole has four straight negative Plus/Minus outings. Overall, he sits at a .297 xwOBA and 26.8 K%, both slightly below his career marks.
The model likes Cole as an elite daily fantasy option, even with his elevated price tag. Vegas agrees as the Orioles have one of the lowest implied run totals on the slate.
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Hitters
Jon Berti ($4,600 DraftKings, $3,100 FanDuel) at Colorado Rockies
A well-traveled journeyman, Berti is making the most of his opportunity this season for the Marlins. He is batting .277/.320/.358 overall and .327/.351/.345 in May.
A speedster on the base paths, he led the major leagues with 41 stolen bases last season and has seven swipes so far in 2023. Don’t expect Berti to hit the ball out of Coors Field, even with the Colorado air boost, but his leadoff position could benefit today from the added power potential behind him for the Marlins.
The Marlins face lefty Austin Gomber for the Rockies. Gomber is 3-4 with a 6.70 ERA overall and 1-2 with an 8.75 ERA at home in five starts this season.
Charlie Blackmon ($5,100 DraftKings, $3,300 FanDuel) vs. Miami Marlins
Blackmon was one of the premier hitters in the majors from 2016-2020. Though he hasn’t returned to that form, he consistently puts the ball in play in the best hitter’s park in the league.
He is batting .276/.366/.417 on the season with a low 13.7% strikeout rate. At home, his numbers improve to .289/.378/.421. Blackmon has three double-digit DraftKings performances in his last six games, though his ceiling is capped with only three home runs on the season.
The Rockies face highly-touted prospect Eury Perez, who is making the third start of his young career. Perez is 1-0 with a 2.79 ERA in 9.2 innings. He has a .375 xwOBA and 33.3 K% in his first two career starts.
