The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Lane Thomas ($2,900): Outfielder, Washington Nationals
Projected to bat leadoff for the Nationals, Thomas is one of the best values on the slate. Thomas has recorded at least one hit in eight consecutive games, with three home runs and seven runs scored over that time. On DraftKings, Thomas also had a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his last 11 games. Being priced under $3,000 still provides a very strong value on this slate.
In his second full season with the Nationals, Thomas has a 35.4% hard-hit rate and leads the team with 18 RBIs. He is on a career-high pace with four home runs and three steals, displaying his versatility. Thomas has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus in THE BAT X projections with an 86% Bargain Rating. He is also projected for under 10% ownership on as well.
The Nationals are slowly starting to heat up, winning six of their last nine games. They are home underdogs against the Mets right-hander Tylor Megill. After a strong start to the season, Megill has allowed at least three earned runs in each of his last four starts. His career-low 17.3% strikeout rate will help the free-swinging Thomas, who has a very high 25.2% strikeout rate.
Dylan Carlson ($2,500): Outfielder, St. Louis Cardinals
Carlson is another cheap outfielder worth getting exposure to batting in the heart of the Cardinals lineup. His 6 Pro Trends are among the highest among hitters. Carlson has at least one hit in 11 of his last 13 games and has hit his two home runs during that time. His 38.7% hard-hit rate and batting lineup will provide several opportunities to bring capture RBIs tonight.
The Cardinals are implied for 5.3 runs against Red Sox southpaw James Paxton. This is Paxton’s season debut since coming off of the injured list and is actually his first start since April 6, 2021. He only started six games during the 2020 and 2021 seasons but had well above a 6.00 ERA with a hard-hit rate in the mid-40s. This is an excellent matchup for Carlson.
Carlson is a switch hitter but is much better at hitting off of left-handed pitchers. In his career against southpaws, Carlson has a .362 wOBA and a .310 average compared to a .298 wOBA and an .224 average against right-handers. Paxton is projected to throw around 65 pitches, but that is more than enough time for Carlson to get a few at-bat’s against the soft-throwing lefty.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Gerrit Cole ($12,000 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Cole is the second-most expensive pitcher on this slate but has the clear-cut highest ceiling projection in both our in-house and THE BAT X projections. Cole’s last outing was against the Rays, and he did not fare well, allowing five earned runs and two home runs in only five innings of work. Looking to bounce back at home, Cole is a much better pitcher at Yankee Stadium.
The Rays are the only team in the league that has yet to lose double-digit games, as they have a 30-9 record. However, the Yankees are -178 home favorites, as the Rays have an implied total of only 3.5 runs. Pitching at home this season, Cole has a 0.82 ERA, and a .155 batting average allowed compared to a 4.34 ERA and a .260 batting average allowed on the road.
Our blended projections have Cole as the most popular pitcher, with a strikeout prediction of 8.34. The Rays have been a much different team on the road, but still possess a lot of fear into opposing pitchers. Cole will need to be on his A-game, but given all of his home success, it wouldn’t be surprising if he shut down this electric lineup. He is the best pitcher on the slate.
Hitter
Trea Turner ($5,800 DraftKings, $3,300 FanDuel) at Colorado Rockies
The Phillies lineup is flooded with ceiling-projected batters as they will take their talents to Coors Field to face left-hander Austin Gomber. Turner is the best option of the bunch as he will get the platoon advantage and is too cheap on FanDuel at $3,300, resulting in a 99% Bargain Rating. He will be very popular, but Turner is an elite shortstop option on this slate.
Winners of three-straight games, the Phillies get the best spot on the slate – road team in Coors Field. They are implied for 6.4 runs facing Gomber who has allowed a career-high 1.62 HR/9 and a 6.75 ERA this season. Gomber has been even worse pitching at home giving up a double-digit ERA and a .352 batting average allowed. This is a great spot for the Phillies.
Projected to bat second in the Phillies lineup, Turner has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel. He is a great option on both sites, as Gomber allows a .341 wOBA and a 1.42 WHIP to right-handed batters in this career. Even in a non-Phillies stack, Turner is the best one-off play on the slate, given how high of a ceiling that he has in this matchup.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Spencer Strider ($12,200 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel) at Toronto Blue Jays
Over the last two seasons, Strider has turned into a true ace for the Braves. He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in each of his seven starts, mainly due to his career-high 42.4% strikeout rate, which is the highest in the league. Strider has at least eight strikeouts in every start and is averaging 9.6 strikeouts per start. He also has a career-best 0.93 WHIP and 0.45 HR/9.
Strider will go on the road where he has actually been better in run prevention this season. He is 3-0 on the road with a 2.12 ERA and a .155 batting average allowed. He is a -160 favorite against the Blue Jays, who are implied for 3.9 runs. Strider is 4-0 this season with a ton of run support, as the Braves offense has been awesome out of the gates with 199 runs scored.
It will be difficult to fit Strider and Cole in a lineup on DraftKings, given how they are both $12,000 or higher, and there are a ton of great hitting spots on this 13-game slate. Deciding between the two will be tough, but the case for Strider is the strikeout upside. He has the most Pro Trends on DraftKings and is projected for a slate-high 8.41 strikeouts in this matchup.
Hitters
Justin Turner ($3,400 DraftKings, $2,900 FanDuel) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Turner is projected to be the highest-owned first baseman on DraftKings, batting third for the Red Sox. In his first year with the Red Sox, the 38-year-old veteran has a respectable .343 wOBA. His exit velocity of 90.7 is near a career-high, and he has above a 40% hard-hit rate for the fifth-straight season. Turner has the upside and remains too cheap on both sites.
Turner has first baseman and third baseman eligibility on FanDuel, making it easy to fit him into all lineup builds. The Red Sox are implied for 5.8 runs, which is the second-highest on the slate behind the Phillies. They will face off against the veteran 41-year-old Adam Wainwright who allowed four earned runs in his opening start against the Tigers six days ago.
Wainwright threw 90 pitches in his season debut and is projected to throw around the same tonight. Turner has had his fair share of success against Wainwright over the years, with one home run and two doubles in 14 plate appearances. Allowing four earned runs against the Tigers is a bad sign of things to come. In a veteran vs. veteran matchup, we’ll go with Turner.
Mookie Betts ($5,900 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel) vs. San Diego Padres
Betts has one of the highest ceiling projections for all non-Phillies batters on this slate. He is off to a relatively slow start with a career-high 19.9% strikeout rate but still has a .225 ISO and a 40.2% hard-hit rate. Betts has hit a home run in two of his last four games as the Dodgers’ leadoff hitter is in an exceptional spot tonight against Padres left-handed pitcher Blake Snell.
Snell has allowed at least one home run in each of his last six starts. Paired with a career-high 1.80 HR/9 is a 13.4% walk-rate and a 24.8% strikeout rate, which is way down from his career average. A once 20+ win pitcher, Snell hasn’t had that type of upside in quite a while. His hard-hit rate has also climbed to a career-high 44.3%, which is great news for Betts.
Betts has second baseman and outfielder eligibility on FanDuel, where he also has a 98% Bargain Rating. The Dodgers have a 4.9 implied run total against Snell as they look to build on their NL West-leading 23-15 record. The Dodgers have also hit the second-most home runs in the league, which is bad news for Snell, who has been susceptible to the long ball.
