NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Saturday, Apr. 29): Can Devin Booker Keep Rolling vs. Nuggets?

Saturday features Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals between the Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns at 8:30 p.m. ET. The Nuggets are listed as 3.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 227.0.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Use our PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 sign-up bonus on NBA player pick’ems.

NBA DFS Stud Picks

Nikola Jokic has been one of the top studs in fantasy for the better part of three seasons. He had another phenomenal year in 2022-23, just narrowly missing averaging a triple-double with 24.5 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 9.8 assists per game. Add it all up, and he averaged 1.76 DraftKings points per minute.

Jokic continued to produce during the postseason. He got off to a slow start, finishing with just 42.5 DraftKings points in a blowout victory in Game 1, but he increased his production in each game vs. the Timberwolves. It culminated with 71.75 DraftKings points in Game 4 and 80.25 DraftKings points in Game 5. Jokic also posted a usage rate of at least 35.9% in each of those contests, which represents a sizable increase from his average of 27.2% during the regular season. If he’s going to continue to carry that high of a mark, Jokic will possess even more upside during the playoffs.

Jokic absolutely feasted in two games vs. the Suns during the regular season, racking up 59.0 and 88.25 DraftKings points. That’s good for an average Plus/Minus of +13.05 (per the Trends tool).

Ultimately, no one else in this matchup can touch his projections. He owns the top median and ceiling projections in our NBA Models by a wide margin, and he also ranks first in projected Plus/Minus. It’s very hard not to build around him on this slate.

On the other side, the Suns have a superstar duo in Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. KD is known as one of the most efficient high-volume scorers in league history, but Booker was the guy who carried the offense in the first round. He led the team with a 30.0% usage rate, while Durant was down at 24.1%. Booker was also amazing with his volume, averaging 37.2 points per game while shooting 60.2% from the field and 46.7% from 3-point range.

Ultimately, Booker racked up at least 55.25 DraftKings points in each of their four wins, including at least 68.5 in two of the past three. The question is, can he do it again?

I’d rather go with Durant, who has a more proven track record of success. His per-minute production was down during the first round, but he was the superior per-minute producer during the regular season. Durant is also more likely to contribute on the glass, giving him a bit of a higher floor.

Durant currently leads Booker in both median and ceiling projection, giving him a clear edge as the cheaper option.

Of course, playing both players together is also fine. They don’t have the greatest correlation (-0.02 on DraftKings), but they’re not so negatively correlated that they can’t succeed in the same contest. Both players also possess a Bargain Rating of 99% on DraftKings.

NBA DFS Midrange Picks

Jamal Murray could very easily be considered a stud, but he is priced a bit more affordable than Jokic, Durant, and Booker. He was excellent in the first-round series vs. the Timberwolves, racking up at least 44.0 DraftKings points in four of five games. He had two contests with at least 35 points, and he’s capable of getting as hot as anyone as a scorer.

Murray’s downfall is that he doesn’t typically provide much in the peripheral categories. Jokic is so good at passing and rebounding that it doesn’t leave a ton for his teammates. Still, Murray averaged 5.6 boards and 6.4 dimes vs. the Timberwolves, both of which were slightly up compared to his regular season averages.

The biggest factor working against Murray is his matchup. Chris Paul is still a solid defender, ranking seventh in ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus-Minus at point guard. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -4.0, which is one of the worst marks on the slate.

Speaking of Paul, his production during the first round was overshadowed by Booker and Durant, but he can still get the job done. He posted a positive Plus/Minus in all five matchups on DraftKings, including a ceiling performance of 51.0 DraftKings points in Game 4. He may not be the same elite fantasy point guard that he was in his prime, but he averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute during the regular season.

Unsurprisingly, Paul’s playing time is up during the playoffs, and he’s currently projected for more than 38 minutes in our NBA Models. That gives him a good chance to pay off his current salary, and he ranks fourth on the slate in projected Plus/Minus.

Deandre Ayton is the toughest Suns’ superstar to make a case for. In addition to a tough matchup with Jokic, his ceiling has been capped during the postseason. He’s capable of pouring in a double-double, but he’s not going to get enough shot attempts for a truly big score. He had 40.75 DraftKings points or fewer in his first five postseason contests, and he went for 31.25 or less in three of them.

Aaron Gordon has provided value at times this season, but most of his best games came with Jokic out of the lineup. He hasn’t had a chance to put his skills on display during the postseason, finishing with 30.5 DraftKings points or less in his first five games. That doesn’t give him nearly enough upside to justify his current price tag on DraftKings, though he has some appeal at $9,000 on FanDuel.

Unlike Gordon, Michael Porter Jr. has a path to a big number vs. the Suns. He’s a pure scorer, so he’s capable of taking advantage of nights where he gets more shot attempts than usual. He had two games with four 3-pointers during the first round, and he finished with at least 40.25 DraftKings points in both contests. His rebounds were also way up in that series, averaging 8.2 rebounds per game. He managed just 5.5 boards per game during the regular season, so he provides a bit more per-minute upside than usual.

Josh Okogie has been a big part of the Suns’ rotation this season, especially after trading away Mikal Bridges and Cameron Johnson. He started the postseason as a non-factor, playing just 6.6 minutes in Game 1 vs. the Clippers, but he played 32.8 minutes in Game 5. However, he’s not projected for quite as much playing time vs. the Nuggets, checking in at 26.15 minutes in our NBA Models. Okogie’s per-minute production is also down over the past month, so he’s very tough to roster at his current price tag.

Bruce Brown is a solid role player, and he’s seen between 25.3 and 29.9 minutes in four of the Nuggets’ five postseason contests. Brown averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute during the regular season, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to potentially return value. He stands out with the best projected Plus/Minus among all players priced below MPJ.

NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks

• Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($4,800 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel): KCP is pretty mediocre in terms of per-minute production, but he sees a ton of playing time for someone in this price range. He’s projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models, making him one of the safest value plays on the slate.
• Torrey Craig ($4,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): As Okogie’s role has grown, Craig’s role has diminished. He went from 31.6 minutes in Game 2 vs. the Clippers to just 16.9 in Game 5. However, he’s expected to return to closer to 25 minutes on Saturday, making him a solid buy-low candidate.
• Bismack Biyombo ($4,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Ayton doesn’t play as many minutes as you might expect, leaving Biyombo with a decent role. He’s played at least 11.1 minutes in four straight games, and he’s scored at least 14.0 DraftKings points in three of them. Unfortunately, his salary has increased to $4,000 for Game 1 vs. the Nuggets, which is nearly double what it was in his last contest. He’s much less appealing at that price tag.
• Jeff Green ($3,600 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Green is the cheapest player in this contest who is projected for at least 20 minutes in our NBA Models. Being on the floor is half the battle, and Green should at least check that box on Saturday.
• Cameron Payne ($3,200 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel): Payne missed the Suns’ first four playoff contests, and he played just 3.3 minutes in his return to the lineup. He’s not expected to see a much larger workload vs. the Nuggets, but Payne is capable of doing damage quickly. He averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute during the regular season, so he has some upside if he plays more than expected. He’s an interesting low-ownership flyer.
• Christian Braun ($2,600 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel): Now we’re getting into the true punts. Braun played a decent handful of minutes vs. the Timberwolves, and he should be locked into double-digit minutes vs. the Suns. He had two games with double-digit fantasy points in the first round, and that’s enough to make him viable at his current salary.
• Landry Shamet ($1,400 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel): Shamet likely won’t play much in this contest, but he can shoot. If he knocks down a few shots from the perimeter, that could be enough to return value at $1,400.