Thursday features Game 6 of the First-Round Eastern Conference between the Boston Celtics and the Atlanta Hawks at 8:30 p.m. ET on TNT.
After a comeback victory in Game 5, the Hawks survived elimination to force a Game 6. The Hawks are still the underdog, as the road Celtics are seven-point favorites looking to close out this series. Expect another track meet with a 232.5-point game total, with this series ranking second in Pace behind only the Kings and Warriors series.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check out my article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
Jayson Tatum has shot poorly in this series, but his upside remains unmatched. Tatum has the highest ceiling projection in our NBA Models, averaging 26.6 points and 9.2 rebounds per game with three double-doubles in his past five contests.
Projected to play 39 minutes, Tatum will be impossible to ignore in all lineup builds. The question will come down to whether or not to play him at Captain on DraftKings and MVP on FanDuel. Tatum’s usage rate has dipped from 32.6% during the regular season to 29.5% in the playoffs, which still leads the Celtics. If his shot starts to fall tonight, Tatum will be essential in the top spot.
After struggling in Games 1 and 2, Trae Young has flipped a switch leading the Hawks to wins in two of their last three games. Over that time, Young has averaged a double-double with 35 points and 12.3 assists per game. He has put together back-to-back games of over 68 DraftKings points and had an incredible 39.3% usage rate in his last contest.
Dejounte Murray is back after missing Game 5 due to suspension, but adding Murray in the offseason hasn’t slowed down Young. He averaged a double-double for the first time in his career, and with his ceiling on display the last two games, Young has made a deserving case for Captain and MVP ownership.
Speaking of Murray, he has also been great in the four games that he has played in this series. Murray has consistently scored between 23 and 29 points with at least six rebounds and five assists in each game. He is averaging 48.4 DraftKings points per game and is a worthy contrarian pay-up option. It is worth pointing out that Murray is projected to play the most minutes in this game, which is always a nice boost.
Sandwiched between Young and Murray is Celtics All-Star Jaylen Brown, who is right behind Tatum on the Celtics in scoring and usage rate. Brown averaged a career-high 26.6 points per game this season, shooting 49.1% from the field. He has carried that over into the postseason, where he is shooting even better at 54.6% from the field and 44% from downtown.
Among these four stud options, Brown has the highest projected Plus/Minus at the Captain and MVP spots. Brown has taken advantage of Tatum’s poor form by pouring in over 30 points in back-to-back games. His peripherals are inconsistent, but Brown can get scorching hot scoring the ball and has defensive upside.
NBA DFS Midrange Picks
Derrick White has arguably been the best player for the Celtics in this series, averaging 19.4 points per game while shooting 59% from the field and 50% from behind the arc. White’s salary has risen where he isn’t as good of a value as before, but he can still provide upside in the upper midrange pricing tier. He will continue to defer to Tatum and Brown in the starting lineup, but White has played too well to ignore in all DFS formats.
After leading the Celtics in assists and steals this season, Marcus Smart has carried that production into the playoffs while adding 15.4 points per game. Smart has been in foul trouble the last two games, which is why his minutes have been down. The Hawks ranked 22nd in assists allowed and Defensive Rating this season, making this an exploitable matchup for Smart and the Celtics’ juggernaut offense that ranked second in Offensive Rating.
Bogdan Bogdanovic started Game 5 without Murray and stuffed the stat sheet with 18 points, six rebounds, five assists, two blocks, and one steal, finishing with over 40 DraftKings points. He shot 6-9 from the field and 3-6 from downtown. Bogdanovic is significantly overpriced at $10,500 on FanDuel, but his $5,400 salary on DraftKings comes with a 96% Bargain Rating.
Al Horford hasn’t provided much offensively, failing to score double-digit points in the first five games. However, his peripherals have been encouraging, as he had six rebounds, five rebounds, and five blocks last game. Horford is best used as a cash-game option, as the 36-year-old is starting to slow down. He averaged a career-low 9.8 points on only 7.6 field goal attempts per game.
De’Andre Hunter is the perfect tournament play, as he has two games of more than 40 DraftKings points and less than 20 in the other three. Hunter played 40 and 42 minutes in back-to-back games, as his defense is essential when guarding Tatum and Brown. He will be playing 40+ minutes again tonight if he can stay out of foul trouble and will likely continue to remain aggressive on the offensive end of the floor.
Robert Williams has yet to top 30 minutes in any game but has displayed massive upside in this matchup. In Game 4, Williams had a monstrous game with 13 points, 15 rebounds, three assists, two blocks, and two steals for 44.75 DraftKings points. The Hawks have been one of the best matchups for opposing centers, allowing 54.6 points per game in the paint, which ranks second only to the Spurs in the entire league.
Sixth Man of the Year Malcolm Brogdon has been steady but hasn’t displayed much of a ceiling in this series. He may best be utilized as a cash-game play, as he has topped 27 DraftKings points only once in five games. Brogdon has scored 13+ points in four-straight games, but his peripherals have been lacking. His salary is very inviting on both DraftKings and FanDuel, which is expected to make him one of the highest-owned players on the slate.
NBA DFS Values & Punts
- Clint Capela ($5,200 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel): Capela has a difficult test against the Celtics frontcourt, which has caused him troubles. His salary suggests he is still a strong value play, but Capela’s inconsistent minutes keep him in “tournament-play-only territory,” despite having double-double upside.
- John Collins ($5,000 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel): Collins finally erupted in Game 5 with 22 points on 9-18 shooting from the field and 4-9 from downtown. With Murray back in the mix, Collins could easily become irrelevant like he was in Games 2, 3, and 4. He looks like a great value on paper, but Collins has declined considerably.
- Onyeka Okongwu ($4,600 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): In his third year in the league, Okongwu averaged nearly a double-double off the bench this season and has been valuable throughout this series. He is the best Hawks big to target based on his price and the fact that he has the highest projected Plus/Minus on both sites.
- Saddiq Bey ($4,400 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Bey has been a key asset for the Hawks since joining the team at the trade deadline. He is shooting a career-high from the field and behind the arc while scoring double-digit points in two of his last three games. Bey may be inconsistent, but he is worth a flier in tournaments.
- Sam Hauser ($3,200 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Hauser is coming off his best game in the series, scoring a playoff-high 16.5 DraftKings points in 14 minutes. He made at least one three-pointer in over half of the games, and his perimeter shot keeps Hauser in play as a low-priced value play in a stars-and-scrubs lineup build.
- Jalen Johnson ($2,600 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Johnson has been in and out of the Hawks playoff rotation but is averaging 1.11 DraftKings points per minute while playing double-digit minutes in three of the five games. On DraftKings, he is the lowest-priced viable player on the slate.
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