GOLF

PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks for the Mexico Open at Vidanta

By Landon Silinsky @landonjake24
Apr 26, 2023

The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.

We head to Puerto Vallarta, Mexico this week for the Mexico Open at Vidanta. Vidanta Vallarta will is the host course and is a Greg Norman designed resort course measuring as a 7,456-yard par 71. Much like the other resort course events on the schedule, there will be paspalum grass greens in play this week.

I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.

My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green

If you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.

PGA DFS Core Picks

Jon Rahm ($12,000 DraftKings)

Even at $12,000, it’s nearly impossible to get away from Rahm this week. He should probably be priced closer to $13,000, and the $1,300 difference between him and Tony Finau is negligible in the context of this slate. You’re presented with many of the same roster construction issues whether you play Rahm or Finau, so you might as well start with the defending Mexico Open and Masters Champion.

Oh, by the way, Rahm is the No. 1 player in the world and ranks No. 1 in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green, Ball-Striking, and Total over his past 48 rounds. He also ranks third in the field in that stretch in SG: Putting.

He’s basically the best ball-striker and putter in the field and is an absolute death machine.

If you fade him, good luck.

Emiliano Grillo ($8,500 DraftKings)

Grillo has been an arch nemesis of mine for years, but the few times a year I attempt to target him are when we’re presented with these resort course events. He’s had a good bit of success at the Corales Puntacana Championship, which is a very strong corollary course to Vidanta in that it’s really long with wide fairways and has paspalum greens. Grillo’s best putting surface just happens to be paspalum as well, where he gains .69 strokes more per round compared to other surfaces.

The Argentine has been pretty consistent this season, making 10-of-14 cuts with three top-10 finishes. He’s also coming off a T7 his last time out at the Valero, where he gained 3.6 strokes on approach and 2.8 with the flat stick. As it usually does, it seems like a great spot for Grillo this week.

Just fully beware he can absolutely implode at the drop of a hat, so if you think he’s safe on Friday afternoon, absolutely make sure and wait until he finishes the 18th hole to victory lap his made cut.

Stephan Jaeger ($8,200 DraftKings)

I don’t know why I keep running it back with Jaeger, to be quite honest with you. He has one top 10 all season and just one top 20 beyond that. His upside to this point has been capped, but that does not mean he can’t pop, especially at an event like this with the field we have this week. He presents a bit of safety due to his ability to make cuts, a feat he’s accomplished in 12-of-15 events this season.

Based on where he’s priced in the outright market, this $8,200 price tag is way too cheap for Jaeger, and he’s likely going to be on every high stakes roster you find. It does help that he finished T15 here last season and that he ranks eighth in SG: Tee-to-Green in this field over his past 24 rounds.

MJ Daffue ($8,000 DraftKings)

Daffue has been rolling right along, making each of his past six cuts with four top-21 finishes in that stretch. His game sets up quite well for this course, and it’s not a surprise he’s made the cut at all the other resort courses on the PGA circuit (Puntacana, Puerto Rico, Bermuda, Mayakoba). His best finish in that quartet came at Puntacana, where he finished T29. As previously mentioned, that’s one of the best comp courses to use when evaluating players this week.

Daffue sits 26th on TOUR in driving distance which is a big part of his appeal this week. He also sits eighth in the field in SG: Total, dating back to his past three events, where he’s posted a T15 at Valero and T19 at Valspar.

He’s played far better than this $8,000 price tag suggests, and I like him to continue his made cut streak at the very minimum this week.

I want it to be known that all of these plays I am writing are cash optimal type plays. I do sometimes fade some of these plays in the higher stakes contests I play in weekly, but that does not mean I think any less of them. The primary reason for the fade usually comes down to ownership, as these guys I write up are usually on many of the sharp players’ single-entry rosters.

With that said, I will write out a few more plays that I am considering this week in GPPs. I almost wrote up Brandon Wu, who played well last week with Joseph Bramlett at the Zurich and also finished T2 at this very event last season. Wu always seems to play well at coastal tracks/resort course events and has continued that trend this season with a runner-up at Pebble Beach and a pair of top 35s at Mayakoba and Bermuda. He’s a little too hit or miss for cash games, but has a ton of upside in a field like this and is on the GPP radar for sure.

Speaking of Joseph Bramlett, he’s also firmly on the list this week. He could have also been a cash game write-up, but I always feel like I am going to wake up to him four over par on Thursday morning when I play him, so I’m reserving him for GPPs only this week. He’s missed three of his last five cuts and, for some reason, will be popular in high-stakes stuff, but did have some success earlier this year and is an okay option at $7,800.

Alex Smalley is also in play despite not playing well of late. He finished T6 at this event last year and was a former runner-up in Puntacana. He’s an egregious putter and misses too many cuts for my liking, but is absolutely in play this week

Finally, and this is not for the faint of heart, but I believe Chris Stroud is in play this week at $6,700. He’s not a total loser like some of these other guys in the $6K range and has already flashed upside at both Puntacana and Puerto Rico this season.

I usually don’t finalize my rosters until like 4 a.m ET Thursday morning, and things are still subject to change, but it’s very unlikely the majority of my main roster does not come from this list of players. Follow me on Twitter, where I sometimes post my thoughts that are not written up in this article. I always try and be fully transparent.

PGA DFS Value Picks

Will Gordon ($7,900 DraftKings)

Will Gordon falls into the Stephan Jaeger bucket for me in that he makes a bunch of cuts without ever presenting much upside. He has one top 10 to his name this year, which by the way, came at Mayakoba (comp course). The reason he’s so appealing is his length off-the-tee, which based on last season’s leaderboard, is a very nice skill to possess.

Excluding last week’s nonsense team event, Gordon has made 13-of-16 cuts on the season and boasts similar odds to win this week, as some players who are $1,000 more expensive.

He’s a value at $7,900.

Dylan Wu ($7,500 DraftKings)

Yet again, Dylan Wu is getting no respect, and it’s becoming criminal. All he’s done is made seven consecutive cuts and 11-of-14 on the season. He played this event last year and shot even par over his first two rounds to miss the cut by two strokes. However, he’s a far more polished player now. He also is coming off a very strong T16 in Puntcana just three starts ago.

During this seven made cut streak, Wu has been a force in all aspects of the game. He ranks 17th in SG: Ball-Striking, 13th in SG: Putting, and seventh in SG: Total. He’s just $7,500 this week for reasons I do not know and is one of my favorite values of the week.

Andrew Novak ($7,300 DraftKings)

Everything I just said about Wu can be applied to my boy Andrew Novak Djokovic, who’s made nine of 12 cuts this season and is coming off a T9 at Valero in his last start. It must be taken into account that a big reason for Novak’s success thus far this year has been his putting, where he sits No.1 in the field over his past 16 rounds and No. 3 over his past 24 rounds.

Many of his rounds this season also do not have strokes gained data available because he’s played Bermuda, Pebble Beach, Puntacana, and Puerto Rico. All of those events have no Shotlink, but we do know he’s made the cut in all of them, including a T17 in Bermuda. He likely struck the ball pretty well at all those events, and even if he hasn’t, he’s done more than enough to warrant our attention this week at just $7,300.

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