The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Sam Hilliard ($2,500): Outfielder, Atlanta Braves
Coming off his best game of the season, Hilliard will look to notch a second 30-point DraftKings game in a row tonight against the Marlins.
Hilliard went 2-4 with two home runs, three RBI, and a stolen base yesterday in the opening game of the series. A career .221 hitter, he has earned more plate appearances through the month of April due to his .333 batting average and 1.034 OPS in 45 at-bats this season.
With a $400 overnight drop in DraftKings pricing, Hilliard is a strong bargain play against Miami’s Bryan Hoeing. The 26-year-old right-hander is making his first start of the season after logging a 12.08 ERA in 12.2 innings pitched at the big league level in 2022.
Griffin Canning ($6,400): Pitcher, Los Angeles Angels
If you are fishing near the bottom of the pitcher salary chart, maybe to make room for extra juice in your batting lineup, Canning is an excellent option.
In his fourth big-league stint with the Angels, Canning has a 3.48 ERA through his first two starts without recording a decision. He has scored a consistent 11 DraftKings points in each outing, and there may be room to go up.
So far this season, Canning is underperforming his career average in K% with eight strikeouts in 10.1 innings. Oakland hitters rank in the bottom half of team strikeout rate this season and have double-digit strikeouts in each of their last two games.
If Canning can add a few more strikeouts to the mix tonight against the Athletics, he should be able to outperform his projection and contribute to a winning fantasy lineup as a bargain piece.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Joe Ryan ($10,500 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel) vs. New York Yankees
FantasyLabs projections have the matchup of Ryan and the Yankees’ Nestor Cortes as both high ceiling plays on today’s slate. Vegas agrees as the Yankees and Twins have two of the lowest implied run totals.
Ryan remains undefeated in 2023 at 4-0 with a 3.24 ERA and 0.76 WHIP in 25 innings. His ceiling largely comes from strikeout potential. He already has two 10-strikeout games in his first four starts this season against just four total walks. He does have a tendency to give up the long ball, with one home run allowed in each of his first four starts this year.
Pitching at least six innings in every start, Ryan should provide a solid fantasy floor with lots of upside against a Yankees batting order that has managed just six runs over its last four games.
Hitter
Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6,600 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) vs. Miami Marlins
The talented Acuna Jr. has kicked his game up another level so far in 2023. He leads the majors with 34 hits and 12 stolen bases to go with his impressive .358 batting average and .437 xwOBA.
Without massive power potential, Acuna Jr. needs to score fantasy points in a variety of inside-the-park methods. Over the last 11 games, he has come through with eight double-digit DraftKings point performances, with only one home run in that span. Putting the ball in play consistently has led to the lowest K% of his career, and those balls are finding holes in the defense, despite a much lower launch angle than his career average.
The Braves have one of the highest implied run totals on the slate as they take on the Marlins, who are bringing up right-hander Bryan Hoeing to make a spot start. Hoeing may be a promising prospect on the mound, but his career .467 xwOBA allowed in his short major league career spells excitement for Acuna Jr. and the rest of the Braves lineup.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Nestor Cortes ($9,900 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel) at Minnesota Twins
The models love the matchup in Minnesota tonight for the hurlers. Cortes is off to a great start in 2023 with a 3-0 record and 3.09 ERA to follow up his all-star-worthy season in 2022 that placed him in the Cy Young Award conversation.
Cortes does not allow free base runners with his low 4.3 BB% and currently has the lowest XBA (1.99) of his six-year career so far in 2023.
For fantasy owners, he has produced two straight 20-point DraftKings games and has surpassed 15 points in all four starts. He has seven strikeouts in each of his last two outings.
With his DraftKings salary dipping below the $10,000 mark and the low implied run totals in this game, Cortes is a strong play as a high-end pitching option tonight.
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Hitters
George Springer ($5,000 DraftKings, $3,100 FanDuel) vs. Chicago White Sox
Springer is working to break out of a terrible April slump where he has managed just a .196 average and .564 OPS. He has just two hits in his last 32 at-bats.
Those numbers are well below the career averages of the 33-year-old veteran, who is routinely near the top of the league in max exit velocity. He was granted a routine rest day yesterday and logged a lone plate appearance late in the game. Maybe that day off can jump-start him toward better results.
Both FantasyLabs and THE BAT X models like Springer to emerge from his batting slumber tonight against Mike Clevinger and the White Sox. The righty is 2-1 with a 3.26 ERA in four starts this season.
The Blue Jays have the highest implied run total on the slate. Look at Springer as a wild card option for tournament formats.
Bobby Witt Jr. ($5,000 DraftKings, $3,300 FanDuel) at Arizona Diamondbacks
The second-year Kansas City star has cooled a bit over his last eight games after a four-game stretch on April 11-15 with multiple hits in each contest.
A speedster on the base paths, Witt Jr. swiped 30 bags last season as a rookie and has added five already this season with the new larger major league bases. A recent cold snap has lowered his batting totals to a .244 average and .736 OPS, but the models like his potential to score fantasy points in multiple ways. Witt Jr. ranks above the league average in xwOBA, hard hit %, and K%.
The Royals take on the inexperienced Ryne Nelson for the Diamondbacks, who is making his eighth major league start.
The right-hander is 2-1 with a 3.35 ERA in 40.1 total big-league innings.
