NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Monday, Apr. 17): Can the Kings Do It Again?

Monday features a two-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Use our PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 sign-up bonus on NBA player pick’ems.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

The two games on this slate were not created equally, at least for fantasy purposes. Nets-76ers has a 10-point spread and a 213.5-point total, while Warriors-Kings has a 1.5-point spread and a 240.0-point total. That means the Warriors and Kings are both implied for at least 119.25 points, while the Nets and 76ers are implied for 101.5 and 111.5, respectively. Unsurprisingly, most of the top fantasy plays come from the game where there is expected to be significantly more scoring.

De’Aaron Fox has had a phenomenal season for the Kings, and he turned in a fantastic playoff-debut in Game 1. He racked up 38 points, which was tied for the second-most by any player in his first playoff contest. Only Luka Doncic’s 42 points were better, and Fox edged out all-time greats like George Mikan (37), Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (36), and Julius Erving (36).

His last performance also doesn’t stand out as an outlier. He’s increased his production to 1.31 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s scored at least 50.25 DraftKings points in three of his past six games. He should continue to rack up big totals in what figures to be a highly fast-paced environment.

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Value

Spencer Dinwiddie isn’t a true “value” in terms of his price tag. He’s going to set you back $7,400 on FanDuel and $7,200 on DraftKings, but he still stands out as the best per-dollar option at the position. He leads all point guards in projected Plus/Minus in our NBA Models.

Dinwiddie turned in an average performance in Game 1 vs. the 76ers, finishing with 30.75 DraftKings points over 36.4 minutes. The 76ers are a brutal matchup, but Dinwiddie has the potential for better production moving forward. He could see a few additional minutes if Monday’s game is more competitive, and he’s averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

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Fast Break

James Harden was fantastic for the 76ers in Game 1, racking up 13 assists and knocking down seven 3-pointers. He’s likely due for a bit of regression from downtown, but he can make up for it with a better shooting performance overall. He was just 1-8 from inside the arc, but he shot 49.5% from that range during the regular season.

Steph Curry scored the ball well in Game 1 vs. the Kings, finishing with 30 points on 11-20 shooting. However, his production in the peripheral categories was lacking. He racked up just six rebounds and two assists, and he added five turnovers. Curry averaged 12.4 rebounds + assists during the regular season, so he should be better in those areas in Game 2.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Klay Thompson got off to a slow start this season, but he ultimately finished the year with another prototypical Thompson stat line. Specifically, he shot 41.2% from 3-point range on more than 10 attempts per game, which is not something that most players are capable of. He averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s scored at least 40.0 DraftKings points in four of his past five games.

That makes Thompson simply too cheap at $6,900. The Kings finished the regular season ranked 25th in defensive efficiency, so the Warriors have plenty of offensive upside in this series. Thompson also played 37 minutes in Game 1, and he figures to see another expanded workload with the team looking to avoid an 0-2 deficit.

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Value

Malik Monk has finally found his role in the NBA. He has transformed into one of the best sixth men in the league, capable of coming off the bench and racking up points like Lou Williams and Jamal Crawford. He did just that in Game 1 vs. the Warriors, finishing with 32 points and 36.6 FanDuel points in 28.9 minutes.

Monk is currently projected for another 26 minutes in Game 2, and he’s averaged 1.05 FanDuel points per minute for the year. He may not be looking at a repeat from Game 1, but he’s still capable of paying off his current salary.

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Fast Break

Tyrese Maxey has SG eligibility on FanDuel, where his 81% Bargain Rating is tied for the top mark at the position. Maxey wasn’t super busy in Game 1, but he made up for it with elite efficiency. He managed 33.7 FanDuel points despite a 13.8% usage rate, and his usage projection is closer to 20.5% on Monday.

Gary Payton II could be a sneaky value target for the Warriors. He played 20.4 minutes in Game 1, and he’s easily the Warriors’ best defensive counter to the Kings’ explosive offense. Payton has historically been an excellent fantasy producer when on the floor, and he’s averaged 1.01 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. If he picks up a few extra minutes, he has the potential to provide excellent value.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

The forward spots are really thin on DraftKings. Draymond Green is the most expensive option at $6,100, and only six forwards are priced at $5,000 or more. That doesn’t leave a ton of options if you’re looking to spend up at the position.

Barnes is one of the safer options in the frontcourt. He’s not particularly exciting, but he’s a good bet to see a bunch of playing time. He played 36.4 minutes vs. his old team on Saturday, and he should see a similar workload in Game 2.

Barnes responded with 31.25 DraftKings points in his last contest, and he’s averaged a respectable 0.77 DraftKings points per minute for the year. He may not provide much ceiling, but no forward on this slate really does.

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Value

Kevin Huerter was quiet in Game 1 of this series, finishing with just 17.25 DraftKings points across 31 minutes. That said, he’s a clear progression candidate in Game 2. Huerter has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s increased his production to 1.05 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Huerter was a dreadful 3-12 from the field and 0-5 from 3-point range on Saturday, so with a better shooting performance, he should be able to return value.

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Fast Break

Cameron Johnson is underpriced on FanDuel, where he leads all small forwards with an 88% Bargain Rating. He was one of the few members of the Nets who didn’t struggle in Game 1 vs. the 76ers, knocking down 7-11 shots from the field, but he was limited to just 27.4 minutes. He’s projected for closer to 31 minutes on Monday, and he’s averaged 0.96 FanDuel points per minute for the year.

Andrew Wiggins showed minimal signs of rust in his return to the lineup on Saturday. He averaged 1.21 FanDuel points per minute in that contest, and he was extremely aggressive offensively. He racked up 16 shots in 28.2 minutes, and his playing time should only increase as the series progresses.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Draymond is arguably the strongest option at forward on Monday. He’s no longer the nightly triple-double threat that he was in his prime, but he’s still a very capable fantasy producer. He’s averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s capable of doing a little bit of everything for fantasy purposes. He had nine boards and 11 assists in his first playoff contest vs. the Kings, but he supplemented it with just four points. He averaged 8.5 points per game during the regular season, so he could give us a bit more in that department on Monday. If he can crack double-digits – gasp – a double-double is well within reach.

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Value

Royce O’Neale and the Nets were pretty thoroughly dominated by the 76ers in Game 1, so there wasn’t much value to be had by anyone on the squad. However, O’Neale stands out as a nice target at this price point. He’s averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he should play around 28 minutes in this contest. O’Neale was priced in a comparable range on just 29 previous occasions this season, and he averaged 22.18 DraftKings points in nine games with between 24 and 32 minutes (per the Trends tool). That’s basically all we’re looking for at his current salary.

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Fast Break

Power forward is a bit stronger on FanDuel, where Domantas Sabonis has dual PF/C eligibility. Sabonis wasn’t great in his first playoff game this season, but he still managed 39.2 FanDuel points thanks to 12 points, 16 boards, two assists, and three steals. He should be looking at a better shooting performance after making just five of 17 shots on Saturday.

Trey Lyles is another interesting punt play. He shouldn’t carry much ownership, and he’s projected for less than 18 minutes in our NBA Models. That said, he’s averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute for the year. He racked up 27.0 DraftKings points in less than 18 minutes in Game 1 vs. the Warriors, and he had 30.0 DraftKings points in 22.2 minutes in the penultimate game of the regular season. In other words, he’s capable of doing damage quickly, and he doesn’t need to do much to pay off his $3,900 salary.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Even though the Nets-76ers game is clearly the lesser of Monday’s two contests, Joel Embiid stands out as the top stud on the slate. He averaged 1.65 DraftKings points per minute during the regular season, and Curry ranked second among Monday’s options at 1.44. Over the course of 38 minutes, that’s nearly eight additional fantasy points for Embiid. Sure enough, Embiid leads Curry by roughly eight points in terms of median and ceiling projection in our NBA Models.

The Nets made stopping Embiid their primary focus in the first half of Game 1, but he proved to be a willing passer and the 76ers’ role players buried them from behind the arc. They moved away from aggressively double-teaming Embiid during the second half, and he torched them for 16 points in 16 minutes. That’s the dilemma that the Nets are going to face for the entire series.

Regardless of the Nets’ defensive philosophy in Game 2, $10,600 is simply too cheap for the kind of production Embiid has provided all season. He averaged 57.85 DraftKings points per game, so he should be priced above $11,000.

Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table also likes Embiid’s fantasy prospects in this spot:

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Value

Kevon Looney can play for my team any day of the week. He may not be the most imposing center, but the guy just gets the job done. The Warriors don’t win the title last year without his production, and they’re going to need him again if they’re going to go back-to-back.

Looney was merely average in Game 1 vs. the Kings, finishing with 26.25 DraftKings points across 32.2 minutes. That said, the playing time was encouraging. Looney has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute for the year, so he should be able to improve if he continues to play that much moving forward. He will likely lose a few minutes to Wiggins, but Wiggins could also siphon minutes away from guys like Payton and Donte DiVincenzo.

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Fast Break

Nic Claxton blossomed into an excellent fantasy center this season, averaging 1.13 DraftKings points per minute over an average of 29.9 minutes per game. He managed just 25.0 DraftKings points in Game 1, and dealing with Embiid is going to be a massive undertaking. Still, Claxton scored at least 40.25 DraftKings points in two of his final three regular season contests, and his $6,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.

Of course, Claxton could also find himself riding the pine in foul trouble, which makes Day’Ron Sharpe an interesting contrarian pivot for tournaments. Sharpe has averaged a stout 1.38 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and there’s a scenario where he sees more than 20 minutes in this contest. He also stands out as a nice value on DraftKings, where his $3,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.