The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Edouard Julien ($2,000): Second Baseman, Minnesota Twins
With Jorge Polanco and Kyle Farmer on the injured list, rookie and one of the top Twins’ prospects Edouard Julien has started each of the last two games at second base. Last night, Julien batted leadoff and had a single and home run in the Twins’ nine-run first inning. Those were his only two hits of the game, but he easily paid off his $2,000 salary.
Despite being projected to bat in the seventh spot tonight, Julien is still $2,000 on DraftKings, which is resulting in a 99% Bargain Rating. He has stolen base upside and fills a second-base position that can be a little tricky with all of the current injuries. At $2,000, Julien is a great salary saver when looking to get expensive outfielder bats.
The Twins are projected for only 3.8 runs against Yankees southpaw Nestor Cortes who has had a relatively slow start despite winning each of his first two games. Cortes, in his two starts, has a 19% strikeout rate and a 5.28 xFIP. He has been able to carve up left-handed batters, but Julien is an elite value option with home run and stolen base upside.
Rob Refsnyder ($2,400): Outfielder, Boston Red Sox
The only player who has a top three projected Plus/Minus in the FantasyLabs and THE Bat X projections is outfielder Rob Refsnyder. He is projected to bat third for a Red Sox lineup that has a 4.8 implied run total. The Red Sox as a team are one of the best stacks from a value perspective, with a Team Value Rating of 88 against Angels southpaw Patrick Sandoval.
Through nine games, Refsnyder only has four hits in 22 plate appearances but is coming off of a home run in his last game against the Rays. Refsnyder will get the platoon advantage against Sandoval, who has a 1.42 WHIP against right-handed batters compared to 0.95 WHIP against lefties. At $2,400, Refsnyder is another strong salary saver tonight.
In his first season with the Red Sox last year, Refsnyder had a career-high .381 wOBA and a 146 wRC+. His 46.7% hard-hit rate was also a career-best, as he drove in 21 RBIs in only 57 games. Batting in the heart of the Red Sox lineup, Refsnyder will get plenty of RBI opportunities.
Don’t be intimidated by his slow start. Refsnyder is a great value play.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Nestor Cortes ($9,500 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel) vs. Minnesota Twins
Speaking of Nestor Cortes, he has the highest projected ceiling in our blended projections with FantasyLabs, and THE BAT X. Cortes has the highest strikeout projection despite his strikeout rate being down in his first two starts. It helps the Twins rank seventh in strikeout rate at 24.6% this season. Their 3.8 implied run total also provides an elite ceiling for Cortes.
Cortes was fantastic last season with a 12-4 record and a 2.44 ERA. He held opponents to a 34.5% hard-hit rate and a 0.91 HR/9. His Statcast numbers look even better this season, allowing a 31.3% hard-hit rate, and he has yet to allow a long ball. Cortes has an elite 4.8% walk rate, and we can expect his strikeout rate to rise throughout the season starting tonight.
Cortes and the Yankees are a -185 favorite, which is the second-highest on the slate. They need to keep pace with the Rays, who are a ridiculous 13-0 to start the season. The Twins are swinging a hot bat, but Cortes can cool anyone off very quickly. Playing Cortes and value hitter Julien in the same lineup is not that big of a deal either, given Julien’s incredible price tag.
Hitter
Shohei Ohtani ($6,100 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel) at Boston Red Sox
THE BAT X projects Shohei Ohtani head and shoulders above any other hitter on this slate, with a projected ceiling over two points higher than the next closest batter. His $3,800 salary on FanDuel is way too low, as he has a 98% Bargain Rating. Ohtani’s dual eligibility on DraftKings as a first baseman and outfielder also makes him an intriguing play.
Ohtani is already off to a great start with a career-high .414 wOBA and a .275 ISO. He has three home runs in only 47 plate appearances. His strikeout rate, unfortunately, continues to rise to 29.8%, but Ohtani has an incredibly high ceiling, especially in this matchup, getting the platoon advantage against Red Sox young right-hander Tanner Houck.
Houck is 2-0 to start the season but has allowed five runs in his 10 innings pitched, including two home runs. He is also allowing a career-high 44.4% hard-hit rate, which bodes well for Ohtani, who notoriously hits the cover off the ball. It’s a great matchup for Ohtani, who looks like one of the best pay-up hitters on the entire 12-game slate.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Kodai Senga ($10,400 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel) at Oakland Athletics
The most expensive pitcher on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel is Mets right-hander Kodai Senga. After averaging 25.2 DraftKings points per game in his first two starts, Senga’s salary has increased rapidly to well over $10,000. The 30-year-old rookie from Japan has incredible strikeout upside, which he has displayed already with a 31.1% strikeout rate.
What separates Senga from the rest of the pitchers on this large slate is the elite matchup against the Athletics. They have scored the fifth-fewest runs and have the third-worst wOBA in the league thus far. Their strikeout rate is 24.2%, and their batting average is .231. With a 3.3-implied run total, there is a lot to like about the upside with Senga in this spot.
Senga is right behind Cortes in strikeout predictions but is pitching in a much better environment that has a park factor of 77, which is by far the highest on the slate. His ownership is much higher than Cortes, given the park and matchup.
Hitters
Jose Ramirez ($5,700 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) at Washington Nationals
Our in-house projections always love Jose Ramirez, but they especially love him tonight in this spot against a weak right-hander. Ramirez has teed off against right-handed pitching throughout his career with a .233 ISO and a .509% slugging percentage. Over 70% of his home runs and RBIs in his career have come against right-handed pitching.
In 51 plate appearances, Ramirez has yet to hit a home run but has six doubles and one triple and is batting .294 thus far. He is due for a long ball, as his hard-hit rate is still very respectable at 34%. One of the best features when selecting Ramirez is he will almost always put the ball in play. This season, Ramirez has a career-low 8.2% strikeout rate.
Ramirez will get the luxury of going against Trevor Williams, who, in his first season with the Nationals, is 1-1 with a 4.35 ERA. He allowed two home runs in his opening start against the Rays and has a career-low 16.3% strikeout rate. There will be plenty of opportunities for Ramirez in this matchup, as the Guardians have a 5.4 implied run total.
Will Smith ($5,800 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Cubs
It may feel wrong to take a catcher this expensive, but Will Smith has been incredible to start the season and is deserving of this expensive price tag. He looks much better on DraftKings, where a catcher must be rostered. Through 11 games, Smith already has three home runs with a .308 ISO, .437 wOBA, and a very low 8.3% strikeout rate.
Smith’s hard-hit rate has been 43% or higher in three consecutive seasons. He ranks second in nearly every hitting statistic as the Dodgers offense continues to be one of the most feared in baseball. The Dodgers are second only to the undefeated Rays in runs scored, home runs, wRC+, etc. They have a very impressive .250 ISO through 13 games as well.
Left-hander Justin Steele will take the mound for the Cubs in hopes of building off of his impressive start to the season. He has a 0.75 ERA through 12.1 innings pitched. His left-on-base percentage is 91.4%, which is incredibly lucky thus far. His luck may run out against this potent Dodgers lineup. Smith is projected to bat third and has a very high ceiling despite the salary.
