The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Tuesday features a six-game slate starting at 6:35 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Jordan Montgomery ($8,500) St. Louis Cardinals (-260) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Montgomery has the best Vegas Data on the slate, with the lowest opponent implied total and the best moneyline odds of any pitcher available. That makes his $8,500 price tag more than reasonable, both in a macro sense and in the context of a small slate with limited options.
That price tag is a reflection of his somewhat-limited strikeout upside, with just a 22% rate since the start of 2022. On the flip side, his 13% swinging strike rate suggests room for improvement. That should equate to a strikeout rate in the mid-to-high 20s, which would be a solid bump.
Today is a good day for that regression to start against a Pirates team that ranks bottom-10 in wRC+ against lefties with an above-average strikeout rate. It’s a bit early to put too much stock in splits like that (due to the small sample sizes at play), but it’s an encouraging sign.
Montgomery is a better cash game play than GPP option, thanks to his slightly limited upside and high projected ownership. Still, he’s not a bad GPP option if you can get contrarian elsewhere in the lineup.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Chris Bassitt ($8,200) Toronto Blue Jays (-240) vs. Detroit Tigers
Over the past few seasons, picking on the Tigers may have replaced baseball as the national pastime, at least for DFS players and gamblers. They approached historical levels of offensive ineptitude last season and have somehow been worse to start 2023.
That’s good news for Bassitt, especially at his reasonable price point. He has similar Vegas numbers to Montgomery, but with a $300 savings and slightly lower projected ownership. Like Montgomery, his 22% strikeout rate is less than ideal, making him more “safe” than “high upside.”
Detroit has the higher strikeout rate of their opponents, though, which boosts his upside a bit. Our K Prediction in the FantasyLabs Models has Bassitt with a +1.27 strikeout edge over Montgomery. That’s enough to make him preferable for GPPs while saving a bit of salary. He leads the FantasyLabs median projections for pitchers today.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Nick Lodolo ($9,400) Cincinnati Reds (-135) at Philadelphia Phillies
Unlike the pitchers mentioned above, Lodolo ranks poorly in the “safety” category but has an enormous ceiling. The second-year lefty has a career strikeout rate of over 30% and has been even better to start this season than he was as a rookie.
While the Phillies’ offense is formidable, they tend to strike out at a high rate — especially against southpaws. Their 25.3% team rate against lefties is top ten in the league, with a wRC+ 16 points lower than against right-handed pitchers. They’re still implied for a solid 4.4 runs, but it’s safe to assume a disproportionate amount of that will likely come off bullpen arms.
Lodolo is undoubtedly overpriced relative to his Vegas odds, but his upside makes up for it. That salary makes him likely to be less popular as well, making this a “pay up to be contrarian” option for tournaments. He’s projecting behind both Montgomery and Bassitt for ownership in the FantasyLabs models.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Cincinnati Reds:
The Reds have an unusually high (for them) 4.9-run implied total as they host the Phillies and lefty starter Bailey Falter ($7,000). Falter has a 2.61 ERA through two starts this season, but he’s been incredibly lucky. All of his leading indicators are over 4.3, nearly two full runs higher than his traditional mark.
The Reds are also incredibly cheap, with this five-man stack coming in well below $4,000 per hitter. That makes them an excellent stack to pair with Lodolo, the slate’s most expensive pitcher. Not only does it alleviate salary pressures, but the Reds’ offense going off correlates with Lodolo picking up the four-point win bonus.
The Reds are fairly righty-heavy at the top of their lineup, which puts them in a good spot against Falter. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Friedl get the day off here as well, so keep an eye on our lineups page closer to lock, as an even better value might present itself.
Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table also like the Reds’ offensive prospects in this matchup:
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Trent Grisham OF ($3,800 DraftKings; $2,700 FanDuel) San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Bryse Wilson)
Grisham is expected to lead off for the Padres, who are implied for five runs on tonight’s slate. At his price point, that makes him hard to pass up. It’s unclear if Milwaukee plans to use Wilson as an opener or a more traditional starter, but the former scenario would further benefit Grisham and the Padres.
Grisham is another player who should benefit from the MLB rule changes this season. He’s a marginal base-stealing threat with 30 steals over the past three seasons but could see a few extra opportunities thanks to the league-wide increase in success rate. He was also heavily shifted against last season, so a few more infield singles are likely this year.
Grisham is the top-rated hitter in our tournament models using an aggregate projection set, which factors in production and ownership.
Daulton Varsho OF ($4,100 DraftKings; $3,200 FanDuel) Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers (Spencer Turnbull)
With the top stack of the day being heavy on infielders, doubling up on outfielders in the other hitters’ section feels appropriate. I’ve been on Varsho all year, who, like Grisham, is a borderline threat on the base paths and faced a ton of shifts in prior seasons.
He (and the rest of the Blue Jays) also have an excellent matchup against Turnbull. He had a magic 2021 season but missed last year with Tommy John surgery and has a 13.50 ERA to start 2023. He won’t continue to be that bad, but he may never return to his pre-injury peak.
Blue Jays stacks are firmly in play, with their slate-leading 5.6-run implied total, especially when pairing with Bassitt for the win-bonus correlation. Varsho is my favorite of the bunch from a salary-considered standpoint, though.
Trea Turner SS ($6,300 DraftKings; $3,500 FanDuel) Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds (Nick Lodolo)
There’s never a bad time to roster Turner, who’s hitting .321 to start the season. He has borderline-elite speed and is currently on pace for over 40 steals. He’s on the better side of his platoon splits against the lefty Lodolo, which is another boost for today.
The biggest factor for Turner is his absurd price point on FanDuel, where he has a slate-leading 99% Bargain Rating. His salary on DraftKings is tough to swallow, but he’s a borderline lock on FanDuel, where the top three hitters by Bargain Rating are all Phillies.
