GOLF

PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks for The Masters

By Landon Silinsky @landonjake24
Apr 5, 2023

The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.

We have finally made it to the best week of the year. It’s Masters week, friends. Iconic Augusta National hosts the 87th edition of the Masters Tournament. Not much needs to be said at this point I think you all know about the course, but if not, here is a quick refresher. AGNC is a 7,545-yard par 72 with Bentgrass greens. The rules are slightly different than most weeks, as only the top 50 and ties will make the cut. We have an 88-man field this week, including 49 of the world’s top 50. Let’s get it on.

I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.

My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green

If you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.

PGA DFS Core Picks

Rory McIlroy ($10,600 DraftKings)

Man, it feels like it’s Rory’s time. I know we say this every year, but I mean, come on. He’s playing basically as well as has in years, and outside of a missed cut at THE PLAYERS, he’s been locked in for quite a while now. The Northern Irishman ranks third in SG: Total over the past 48 rounds and second in both SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Ball-Striking.

His Augusta history really need not be repeated because it’s well documented by now, but just as a refresher, he’s posted seven top 10s over his past 10 trips here and would have won last year if Scottie Scheffler wasn’t born.

No one in the field this week is as close to a lock for a T10 than McIlroy is, and he’s maybe the scariest fade on the week.

Jordan Spieth ($9,700 DraftKings)

As you can see, we are keeping it simple this week and playing guys whose track record at Augusta precedes them. Spieth, who set the golf world on fire during his first three Masters starts — losing to a combined two players in that stretch — took home the green jacket in 2015 as a 21-year-old. Since then, it’s been somewhat of a mixed bag, but he still has two other top-three finishes and a T11 since 2017.

After basically losing his powers for the better part of two years, Spieth is playing some of the best golf of his career right now, with three top-six finishes across his past three stroke-play events. In this stretch, he sits seventh in the field in SG: Total and fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green. No one knows these Augusta bentgrass greens better than Spieth, and I really, really think he’s on the shortlist to win his fourth major and second career Masters this week.

He’s also insanely fun to root for.

Justin Thomas ($9,300 DraftKings)

JT is an enigma. He has two major wins, both at the PGA Championship, but it just always feels like his putter holds him back from contending elsewhere. That seems like an incredibly foolish statement, considering the 29-year-old has 15 career wins on TOUR, but speaking as someone who rosters this guy quite a bit in DFS, I can attest his putting is egregious.

Having said that, let’s be real here, $9,300 for Justin Thomas is a lock in any field, at any event, and at any course on this planet. There’s not much else that needs to be said about it. He’ll be making his eighth career start at Augusta, having never missed a cut, while finishing T22 or better in six of those seven starts. He’s coming off a T8 last year, even after an opening round 76.

A stat that also caught my eye, which was tweeted by Justin Ray, shows that JT ranks No. 1 in greens in regulation percentage at Augusta over the last four years. We know he has the requisite short game to get it done as well. If he comes out of the gate hot on Thursday, watch out.

JT is as close to a lock as there is for me in all formats at this laughable price.

Xander Schauffele ($9,000 DraftKings)

I was basically all in on Schauffele at this egregious $9,000 price tag until I saw the first-round groupings. Our boy is, unfortunately, paired with Tiger Woods. Obviously, this is not the be-all end-all, but we have seen many — including plenty of the game’s elites — struggle when playing with the Big Cat. However, this narrative is basically the only negative thing I could say about the X-Man this week.

His game had seemed to be a bit out of sorts, but then he showed out at the WGC-Dell Match Play, where he made the quarter-finals. We all know about Schauffele’s track record at majors since he joined the TOUR, posting nine top-10s in 22 career majors, good for a ridiculous 40.9%. His Master’s record is also strong, despite last year’s missed cut. Schauffele has a pair of top-three finishes, including a runner-up to Tiger in 2019.

Much like JT, this price for one of the game’s true elites jumps off the page, and you’d be foolish in fading him this week.

PGA DFS Value Picks

Corey Conners ($7,600 DraftKings)

Conners was a lock last week and was instrumental for me in taking down the Beverage Cart on DraftKings for a cool $8,000. We are going right back to the well this week at Augusta, where his record is sterling. Conners has three straight top 10s at The Masters, which is a feat only accomplished by one other golfer on earth — Cameron Smith.

Conners gained a whopping 13.4 strokes ball-striking last week and seems to be dialed in right now. Even if he did not win at Valero, he would still be a lock at this $7,600 price tag, but now it’s cemented. If you show up in cash games without Conners, you’re not playing cash correctly.

Min Woo Lee ($7,600 DraftKings)

I might be on an island this week with this one, but I really like Min Woo’s chances of playing well this week. He made the cut at three of the four majors last year, including a T14 at Augusta in his debut. Most are unaware of this, but the 24-year-old Aussie is currently the 48th-ranked golfer in the world right now.

He finished T26 at the Honda Classic before posting a mighty impressive T6 at THE PLAYERS, even with a final round 76. Lee spends the majority of his time on the DP World Tour, so most casual players are quick to dismiss him. However, you will continue to see him atop leaderboards for years to come. He ranks No. 1 on the DPWT in scoring average and sits second to only Thorbjorn Olesen in SG: Total.

Sharp sportsbooks are aware of his potential, as he’s priced at 70/1 on Pinnacle to win this week, which is shorter than plenty of PGA TOUR veterans, such as Tyrrell Hatton, Shane Lowry, and Justin Rose.

Si Woo Kim ($7,400 DraftKings)

Surprisingly, Kim has been one of the most consistent players on the PGA TOUR this season, making the cut in nine of 10 standard stroke play events. He’s also posted a pair of top 10s, including his win at the Sony Open. Kim also has a pretty nice track record at Augusta, with three top-25 finishes in seven starts and just one missed cut, which came in his debut.

This low $7,000 range is really not littered with many good options, and Kim stands out among the riff-raff. He finished T39 last week, even with making a nine during his second round. I like where his game is at right now, and he should score enough to help fill out our rosters.

$6,000 Range

Instead of highlighting individuals I like, it’s easier to give a quick synopsis of this entire range because there are some viable punts this week. Keep in mind we have 50+ players making the weekend out of 88. If you then take all the lifetime achievement award guys like Fred Couples, Sandy Lyle, Larry Mize, etc., as well as the amateurs, we are left with a field of about 74. That means we’re getting roughly 75% of the field making the cut. There are going to be quite a few of these $6,000 options that sneak through.

The two that stood out immediately were Talor Gooch ($6,800) and Jason Kokrak ($6,500), who both reside on the LIV Tour (League?) now. Gooch was especially impressive last year in his debut at Augusta, posting a T14, while Kokrak has played here three times and posted a career-best T13 finish last year as well.

Both of these guys are basically out of sight, out of mind because nobody watches LIV, but they remain too talented to be this cheap. Kokrak is a bomber who can putt the lights out, while Gooch ranked 13th on TOUR last season in SG: Approach.

Some other guys that are in play are Danny Willett ($6,600) and Harold Varner III ($6,500). Willett is a former Masters champion who’s been playing very well so far this year, while HV3 finished T23 on debut last year and ranked 23rd on TOUR in SG: Approach. Both are viable punts.

Get Your First Deposit Matched Up to $100!

Your deposit will be fully matched

New users only

GET $100 FREE