NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Saturday, Apr. 1): Brandon Ingram is Red-Hot

Saturday features a two-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Use our PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 sign-up bonus on NBA player pick’ems.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

With only four teams to choose from on Saturday, finding as many raw points as possible becomes a bigger priority than usual. That gives a significant boost to Luka Doncic. Doncic hasn’t been at his best recently, scoring 47.0 FanDuel points or fewer in back-to-back games, but he still has the most scoring potential on the slate by a wide margin. His ceiling projection is significantly higher than every other player in our NBA Models, with Brandon Ingram standing out as the only other player within 12 points.

That said, Doncic is very expensive, and his matchup vs. the Heat is far from ideal. They’ve played at the third-slowest pace this season, and they’re ninth in defensive efficiency. Neither of Saturday’s contests is expected to be particularly high scoring, but the Mavs’ implied team total of 111.75 is the second-lowest mark on the slate.

Still, this is Luka we’re talking about. He’s far from a must-play, but he has massive upside every time he takes the floor. That alone makes him worth considering on a two-game slate.

The over on Luka’s fantasy prop also grades out very favorably in our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:

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Value

The Clippers are going to be an important team to monitor on Saturday. Kawhi Leonard is expected to suit up after sitting out the second half of Friday’s loss, but Eric Gordon’s status is TBD. He exited with a hip injury on Friday, and it’s possible he’s out of the lineup Saturday vs. the Pelicans.

His loss would open up plenty of value with the Clippers’ reserves, including Terance Mann. Mann is currently projected for 28 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 0.77 FanDuel points per minute this season. He also stands out as the best pure value at the position on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 92%

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Fast Break

Bones Hyland is the preferred Clippers’ value at point guard on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $5,300, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%, and he’s historically been an elite per-minute producer. Bones has increased his production to 1.31 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s turned in some huge performances in limited minutes of late. He’s scored at least 30.0 DraftKings points in four of his past five games, despite failing to crack 25.8 minutes in any of them.

Kyle Lowry is questionable for the Heat, and if he’s unable to go, Gabe Vincent would likely take over as the team’s starting point guard. Vincent has performed admirably in that role all season, averaging 20.5 DraftKings points and 31 minutes in 22 games without Lowry. We’d take that kind of production at just $3,900 on DraftKings.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

C.J. McCollum is only eligible at point guard on DraftKings, but he’s useable at both guard spots on FanDuel. He’s coming off back-to-back subpar games, finishing with 25.5 FanDuel points Thursday vs. the Nuggets and 17.7 FanDuel points Tuesday vs. the Warriors. With Ingram scoring at will for the Pelicans, it simply hasn’t left much for McCollum.

However, McCollum has played at least 37.6 minutes in both of those contests, and he should continue to log big minutes with the Pelicans fighting for a playoff spot. That’s good news for his fantasy prospects moving forward. McCollum has averaged 1.05 FanDuel points per minute for the year, so he has plenty of room for improvement Saturday vs. the Clippers. The Pelicans are also implied for the most points on this slate, even though their mark of 115.0 is nothing to write home about.

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Value

Norman Powell has been slightly limited since returning to the Clippers lineup, racking up 24.2 and 25.1 minutes in his past two games. He could see a slight step forward if Gordon is ruled out on Saturday. Powell is currently projected for just under 26 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute for the year. With Paul George out of the picture, Powell should serve as the Clippers No. 2 option offensively whenever he’s on the floor.

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Fast Break

Kyrie Irving is an interesting tournament option on FanDuel, where his $9,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%. His 10 Pro Trends are the most at the position, and he’s nearly -$3,000 cheaper than Doncic. There hasn’t been that much separating the two players recently, with Irving racking up 42.7 and 43.6 FanDuel points in his past two games.

Josh Richardson hasn’t been quite as effective since joining the Pelicans as he was earlier this season with the Spurs, but his price has come down to a reasonable $3,800 on DraftKings. He’s expected to see around 22 minutes vs. the Clippers, and Richardson has averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute for the year.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Tyler Herro is another player whose eligibility differs by site. He’s a shooting guard and small forward on FanDuel, while he’s eligible at both guard spots on DraftKings. Wherever you use him, he stands out as a strong option on this slate.

Herro is coming off a dismal performance in his last game, finishing with just 19.9 FanDuel points over 35.6 minutes. However, he shot just 2-10 from 3-point range, and he provided virtually no production in the peripheral categories. He should be able to improve in both areas on Saturday, and Herro had at least 35.9 FanDuel points in his two previous contests.

Herro would also see a boost in value if Lowry and Bam Adebayo are unable to play. He’s increased his usage rate by +3.6% and his assist rate by +6.5% with both players off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.02 FanDuel points per minute.

Herro is a particularly appealing option on DraftKings, where his $6,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 79%.

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Value

Like McCollum, Herbert Jones has started to play more meaningful minutes as the games become increasingly important down the stretch. He racked up 32.2 FanDuel points across 35.4 minutes two games ago before stumbling to 12.9 FanDuel points over 33.9 minutes on Thursday. Jones has averaged 0.79 FanDuel points per minute for the year and is projected for another 34 minutes on Saturday, giving him plenty of room for improvement vs. the Clippers. He stands out as one of the best values of the day on FanDuel, where his $5,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 78%.

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Fast Break

Brandon Ingram has been lighting it up for the Pelicans of late. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.02 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in nine straight games. He’s increased his production to 1.24 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s provided an elite combination of scoring and peripherals. Overall, Ingram has scored at least 26 points in eight straight games, and he has two triple-doubles in his past five. Expect him to continue to produce at an elevated level as the team fights for a playoff spot.

Tim Hardaway Jr. is also priced at $5,100 on FanDuel, and his salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. He hasn’t needed to quite as much recently with Doncic and Irving back in the lineup, but he’s coming off 36.4 minutes in his last outing. If he sees that much playing time again on Saturday, he’ll have a strong chance to return value, albeit with minimal upside.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

It’s a tough call between Jimmy Butler and Kawhi Leonard for the top spot at power forward, but Butler gets a slight edge in our projections. He’s projected for slightly more points than Leonard, and he comes with a cheaper price tag. Like Ingram, Butler has elevated his play with the Heat trying to secure a guaranteed playoff spot, averaging 1.32 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s coming off back-to-back subpar outings, but he posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his previous nine games.

Butler would also be one of the biggest beneficiaries if Lowry and Adebayo are unable to go. He’s increased his usage rate by +2.4% and his assist rate by +3.7% with both players off the floor, resulting in an average of 1.33 DraftKings points per minute.

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Value

Sticking with the Heat, Kevin Love stands out as a viable value play on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $4,200, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 93%, and he remains a capable per-minute contributor. He hasn’t been quite as effective since joining the Heat, but he’s still averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s currently projected for 20 minutes in our NBA Models, but that figure could increase if Adebayo is ruled out.

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Fast Break

If you are looking to play Kawhi, you’re best off doing so on FanDuel. His $10,000 price tag comes with a position-high 85% Bargain Rating, and he leads all power forwards with 10 Pro Trends. Leonard rested during the second half on Friday, so he should be fully ready to go on the second leg of a back-to-back. He’s increased his production to 1.27 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s going to have to carry the load with George and possibly Gordon sidelined.

Caleb Martin is another potential value option for the Heat. There’s nothing particularly exciting about him, but he’s cheap, he’s expected to get minutes, and he’s not awful on a per-minute basis. That’s enough to warrant consideration on a two-game slate.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Jonas Valanciunas has been limited in back-to-back games, one against the Warriors and the other against the Nuggets. He was at least 30 minutes a night previously, so hopefully, he can get back to that level of playing time vs. the Clippers. If he does, Valanciunas has a monster ceiling. He’s one of the best per-minute producers in his price range, and he’s increased his output to 1.40 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. The Clippers also represent a solid matchup for him, resulting in a position-high Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.24. Jonas is particularly useful on FanDuel, where his $7,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 78%.

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Value

On the other side of that matchup, Ivica Zubac fits a similar profile as Valanciunas. His playing time is volatile from night to night, but he’s one of the best producers in fantasy in his price range. He’s not quite as productive as Valanciunas, averaging 1.14 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, but he’s significantly cheaper across the industry. The gap is particularly wide on DraftKings, where Zubac is a full -$2,500 cheaper. He went off for 40.25 DraftKings points in 25.6 minutes on Friday, and he has that kind of ceiling vs. the Pelicans.

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Fast Break

If Adebayo suits up, he stands out as arguably the best per-dollar option at the position. He’s capable of contributing in every category, and he’s averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute for the year. It’s also possible that he garners less ownership than he should in that scenario.

If Adebayo can’t go, Cody Zeller would become super intriguing at $3,100 on DraftKings. His price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%, and Zeller would potentially replace Bam in the starting lineup. He’d likely have to split the minutes with a few other players, but Zeller wouldn’t need to do much to pay off his minimal salary.