NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Wednesday, Mar. 29): Mikal Bridges is Breaking Out

Wednesday features a 10-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Use our PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 sign-up bonus on NBA player pick’ems.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander missed Tuesday’s loss vs. the Hornets, and his status for Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Pistons is currently unknown. However, the Thunder currently find themselves in a position they never expected to be in this season: contending for the playoffs. They’re currently holding the final spot in the Western Conference play-in tournament, but their position is precarious. They’re tied with the 11th-place Mavericks, so they’re going to need to keep winning ball games. There’s no guarantee that the Thunder even want to make the play-in tournament, but it would be a nice reward for a young team that has played hard all season.

If SGA is able to return, he should step right back into his usual massive role. He’s blossomed into one of the best fantasy point guards in the league this season, averaging 1.40 DraftKings per minute. He also draws an outstanding matchup vs. the Pistons, who rank merely 28th in defensive efficiency.

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Value

The Spurs are one of many teams limping toward the finish line, and they’ll be without a host of key contributors on Wednesday. Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, and Jeremy Sochan have all been ruled out, opening up plenty of opportunities for the rest of the roster.

Devonte’ Graham should be one of the biggest beneficiaries. He leads the team with a 24.6% usage rate with all three players off the floor, and he’s averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He should provide tremendous value if he moves into the starting lineup, but he still has plenty of appeal even if he comes off the bench. The Spurs should be able to score some points against the Jazz, who rank 24th in defensive efficiency.

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Fast Break

Killian Hayes has played some excellent basketball for the shorthanded Pistons, averaging 0.99 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past eight games on FanDuel, and he’s underpriced for an excellent matchup vs. the Thunder. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.77, while his $6,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%.

T.J. McConnell has historically thrived when given the opportunity to play big minutes, and he’s currently projected for 27 minutes in our NBA Models. That’s enough to make him viable at $6,100 on FanDuel. McConnell has historically had a comparable salary and minute projection in 17 games, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.70 in those contests (per the Trends tool).

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Losing Kevin Durant – and, to a lesser extent, Kyrie Irving – was obviously a huge blow for the Nets. Their “Big Three” was expected to contend for championships, but that never materialized in Brooklyn.

Fortunately, it seems like the Nets got a really good consolation prize in Mikal Bridges. He was limited to being a 3-and-D wing during his tenure with the Suns, but he’s proven there’s a lot more to his game in Brooklyn. He’s thrived as one of the team’s primary scoring threats, averaging 1.14 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Bridges has chipped in at least 27 points in three straight games, and he’s scored at least 41.5 DraftKings points in each.

Two of those contests came in tough matchups against the Heat and Cavaliers, so Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Rockets should be a walk in the park. They play significantly faster than both of those squads, and they’re just 29th in defensive efficiency. The Nets are currently implied for 119.75 points, which represents a significant increase from their season average of 113.4.

Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations are also bullish on Bridges’ fantasy prospects:

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Value

The Blazers are yet another squad that is mailing in the end of the regular season. They’re going to be without Damian Lillard for the rest of the year, and Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant, and Jusuf Nurkic have also been ruled out vs. the Kings. Cam Reddish and Trendon Watford are also doubtful, so they’re going to be extremely shorthanded on Wednesday.

That opens up plenty of opportunities for talented rookie Shaedon Sharpe. The No. 7 pick in the 2022 Draft is still just 19 years old, and his role has been limited for much of the year. However, he’s racked up at least 34.9 minutes in four straight games, and he’s responded with at least 34.5 DraftKings points in three of them. He’s increased his usage rate by +7.9% with all of the currently unavailable members of the Blazers off the floor, resulting in an average of 0.89 DraftKings points per minute. He’s gotten more expensive of late, but he’s still underpriced for his role with the shorthanded Blazers.

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Fast Break

Keon Johnson is another potential option for the Blazers. He’s not expected to see nearly as much playing time as Sharpe, but he makes up for it with superior production. He’s averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s racked up at least 31.0 DraftKings points in two of his past three games.

The Jazz are yet another team with tons of minutes available. They’ve been without their top backcourt options for a while, and Lauri Markkanen will join them on the sidelines on Wednesday. That should open up a few additional minutes for Talen Horton-Tucker, who has averaged 1.06 FanDuel points per minute for the year. He remains underpriced on FanDuel, where his $6,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

The Pacers will be rolling out their B squad for Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Bucks. Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield, and Chris Duarte have already been ruled out, while Myles Turner is currently listed as questionable. Turner has missed the past two games with an ankle injury, and it would be pretty shocking if he returns to the lineup. The team is clearly playing for draft positioning at this point, so there’s no need to risk their talented big man.

With all those options on the bench, Mathurin is going to have to pick up the slack. He’s been extremely active offensively with Haliburton, Hield, Duarte, and Turner off the floor this season, increasing his usage rate to 33.0%. He’s averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute in that scenario, and he played more than 38 minutes in their last contest. The Pacers lost that game by 23 points, so his minutes should be pretty safe even in a blowout.

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Value

Nassir Little was the Blazers’ first-round pick in 2019, and he’s been given an opportunity to spread his wings a bit recently. He was phenomenal Sunday vs. the Thunder, racking up 36.0 DraftKings points across 31.4 minutes off the bench, and he moved into the starting lineup in their last game. He wasn’t nearly as impressive in that contest, but he still posted a respectable 24.2% usage rate. The Kings have been defensively challenged all season despite their great record, so this is an excellent bounce-back spot for Little.

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Fast Break

Jalen Williams is another rookie who has been balling recently, increasing his production to 1.12 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He has at least 40.0 FanDuel points in back-to-back games, including 51.6 FanDuel points Tuesday vs. the Hornets. He would be an outstanding option if SGA is ruled out for the second straight game, and he has some appeal on FanDuel even if SGA is active.

Jordan Nwora has always been able to score the ball, and he’s gotten the chance to play consistent minutes for the Pacers recently. He’s averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s played at least 30.8 minutes in back-to-back games.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Giannis Antetokounmpo missed the Bucks’ last contest, and they were able to cruise to an easy victory without him. Giannis is probable to return to the lineup for Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Pacers, and it seems like it could be Khris Middleton’s turn to rest. He’s been downgraded to questionable after carrying the team’s offense sans Giannis and Jrue Holiday on Monday.

Giannis has played limited minutes for much of the past month, but he has been as dominant as ever when on the floor. He’s averaged 1.85 DraftKings points per minute, which is the top mark among Wednesday’s players. There’s no guarantee that he sees significant minutes vs. the Pacers, but he should do massive damage when he’s on the floor. The Bucks rank second on the slate with an implied team total of 124.25 points, and he should be even more productive than usual if Middleton is ruled out.

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Value

Kevin Knox was a massive disappointment during his tenure with the Knicks, but he’s gotten another opportunity with the Blazers. He’s played well recently, averaging 0.91 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for just under 26 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s coming off 27.75 DraftKings points in his last outing, giving him upside at just $4,200.

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Fast Break

Zach Collins has dual PF/C eligibility on FanDuel, giving him a bit more flexibility to fit in your lineups. Collins has been crushing of late, averaging a Plus/Minus of +5.40 over his past 10 games, and he’s increased his production to 1.26 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s projected for around 30 minutes for the shorthanded Spurs on Wednesday, and the Jazz are an excellent matchup for big men.

Domantas Sabonis is another player with dual eligibility, and he draws arguably the best matchup of the day vs. the Blazers. They’ve been a disaster defensively over the second half of the year, and the Kings own the top implied team total on the slate. Sabonis is also projected for reasonable ownership on this slate, making him a strong tournament pivot.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Joel Embiid’s status for Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Mavericks is currently unknown. He was unable to suit up for Monday’s matchup vs. Nikola Jokic, and given everything we know about Embiid, you have to imagine that was tough for him. The only way he’d miss a matchup vs. the back-to-back MVP is if he was actually hurt, so there’s no guarantee he returns to the lineup on Wednesday.

That said, Embiid is clearly worth considering if he’s back in the lineup. He’s the only player in the league who has rivaled Giannis on a per-minute basis recently, averaging 1.78 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

There’s also a chance that Embiid suits up without James Harden, who also missed Monday’s matchup vs. the Nuggets. That would make Embiid an even stronger option. He’s been phenomenal in 15 games without Harden this season, averaging 57.22 DraftKings points in 33 minutes per game.

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Value

Drew Eubanks is probably the strongest option for the Blazers on Wednesday. He’s been an excellent fantasy producer when given the chance to play big minutes, and he’s increased his production to 0.97 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He should see around 30 minutes if Wednesday’s contest is competitive, and the Kings represent an outstanding matchup. They rank 11th in pace and 25th in defensive efficiency, so Eubanks stands out as one of the best values of the day.

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Fast Break

Nic Claxton has blossomed into a very capable fantasy center this season. He’s averaged 1.18 FanDuel points per minute despite averaging nearly 10 additional minutes per game this season. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in nine of his past 11 contests on FanDuel, and he’s in another great spot for production Wednesday vs. the Rockets.

Jalen Duren has been coming off the bench for the Pistons recently, but that hasn’t stopped him from producing. He’s averaged a stout 1.32 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he has two games of at least 38.0 DraftKings points in his past four. He’s priced at a massive discount at $5,100 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%.