The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at Toronto Raptors – $9,600 DraftKings, $10,600 FanDuel
The Canadian superstar point guard heads home to visit the Raptors on Thursday’s slate and has the highest ceiling projection of all point guards on FanDuel and the second-highest ceiling projection of all point guards on DraftKings, behind only Devin Booker. Since he has played his whole career in the Western Conference, this will be just his fourth career game in Toronto.
SGA has been excellent lately when he has been on the floor, although he has sat out seven of OKC’s last 12 games. He has at least 33 points in all five games he has played in that span, averaging 1.46 DraftKings points and 1.43 FanDuel points per minute and dropping over 50 DraftKings points in four of those five contests.
If the Thunder win this contest, they’ll reach .500 and stay in one of the spots for the Play-In Tournament. While the team has been very cautious with SGA’s minutes, they could give him some extra run since it is a homecoming game, making him a solid option to build around in what should be a good matchup.
Top Value: Killian Hayes vs. Denver Nuggets – $6,700 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel
Hayes’ salary has been on the rise, but he’s still a solid value as he continues to carry the workload in the Pistons’ backcourt. Alec Burks (foot), Bogdan Bogdanovic (Achilles), Marvin Bagley (ankle), Hamidou Diallo (ankle), and Isaiah Livers (hip) are all sidelined, which should leave plenty of usage for Hayes to continue to take advantage of even with Jaden Ivey expected to return.
Hayes has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus at point guard on FanDuel and the fifth-highest at the position on DraftKings.
He has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his past nine games, including each of his past three. His usage rate is 20.3% for the season but has spiked to 27.1% in his three most recent contests. He had back-to-back double-doubles against the Pacers on Saturday and Monday and followed that up with 20 points and seven assists in Tuesday’s loss to the Wizards.
While the Pistons continue to limp to the finish line, Hayes is projected for a 25.5% usage rate in 31.9 minutes on Thursday, giving him the potential to outproduce his price point once again.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker vs. Orlando Magic – $9,900 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
Booker has a top-five ceiling projection of all players on the slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He is only eligible at shooting guard on FanDuel, where he has the second-highest ceiling projection, just behind SGA. On DraftKings, he can slot in at either guard spot and brings the highest ceiling projection at both.
With Kevin Durant (ankle) sidelined, Booker has been carrying the load for the Suns lately. He has scored at least 30 points in six of his past seven games, exceeding salary-based expectations in five. He has produced 1.31 DraftKings points and 1.24 FanDuel points per minute for the year, but he has increased his rate to 1.41 DraftKings points and 1.38 FanDuel points per minute since the calendar flipped to March.
The Magic beat the Suns in Orlando earlier this season, so Phoenix should be looking for some revenge in the late game on this slate, making Booker a strong scoring guard to build around.
Top Value: Gary Trent Jr. vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $4,300 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
Trent has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on DraftKings and the fourth-highest at the position on FanDuel.
His salary has dropped precipitously since moving to a reserve role, but he has stayed very involved, averaging 10.9 field goal attempts per game in 24.9 minutes off the bench. He had a brutal shooting day last Friday against the Lakers, going 0-for-9 and failing to score a single point, but he bounced back with 11 points on Tuesday in his most recent contest.
Trent showed he can still put up big numbers off the bench with 26 points, 44 FanDuel points, and 44.25 DraftKings points in a matchup just over a week again against Washington. He could get extra work depending on how this game plays out in what should be a favorable matchup.
Since his salary has dropped so much, this seems like a good spot to buy low on Trent.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Scottie Barnes vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $7,300 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
Barnes can fill up the stat sheet in multiple categories when he’s at his best and seems to be shaking off the shooting slump that plagued him since the All-Star break. In this favorable spot against the Thunder, he has the third-highest ceiling projection of all small forwards on FanDuel and the second-highest at the position on DraftKings.
In his first eight games coming out of the All-Star break, Barnes shot just 37.7% from the field and only reached 50% one time, but he has flipped that script with back-to-back games with at least a 50% shooting percentage in his two most recent contests. He had 32 points, 55.3 FanDuel points, and 55.75 DraftKings points against the Lakers last Friday and followed that up with 18 points in the Raptors’ comfortable home win over the Nuggets on Tuesday.
Barnes has over 34 DraftKings points in three straight games and has averaged 1.09 DraftKings points and 1.07 FanDuel points per minute over that span.
If this game stays competitive, Barnes will have a chance to carry the Raptors late, just like he did Friday vs. the Lakers (per Game Flow.)
Top Value: Josh Okogie vs. Orlando Magic – $5,100 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
Okogie has remained very involved in the Suns’ rotation without Durant, logging over 32 minutes in three straight games. His consistent production and good matchup propel him to the highest projected Plus/Minus at both shooting guard and small forward on FanDuel and put him in the top five at both positions on DraftKings as well.
Since joining the lineup, Okogie has produced 0.7 FanDuel points and 0.75 DraftKings points per minute with a 17.5% usage rate, but he has been playing enough minutes to average 24.5 DraftKings points and 22.8 FanDuel points per game over that span.
With that much volume coming his way, Okogie is one of the most solid value plays to consider and provides positional flexibility for multiple roster constructions.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Indiana Pacers – $12,000 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel
As usual, when the Bucks are in action, Giannis has the highest ceiling projection on the board at any position on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He gets an extra boost on this slate since Milwaukee is facing the Pacers, who play fast and sometimes without much attention to defense. As a result, the Bucks have the highest Implied Team Total on the slate.
Giannis missed three games last week but played in both games of the Bucks’ back-to-back on Monday and Tuesday. He didn’t show any signs of rust, going off with a double-double of 46 points and 12 rebounds for 64.4 FanDuel points and 69 DraftKings points in his return and following that up with 36 points, 11 rebounds, 64.2 FanDuel points, and 65.75 DraftKings points the next night in Phoenix.
He topped 70 DraftKings points in his first matchup this season with the Pacers, and as long as Indiana puts a competitive enough team on the floor to keep things close, Giannis should be in another smash spot on Thursday.
Top Value: Cameron Johnson vs. Sacramento Kings – $6,300 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
Johnson has been an excellent fit with the Nets and can be a good fit in your lineups Thursday since he has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus at both small forward and power forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
He has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his past nine games, including his most recent contest when he had 23 points, nine rebounds, 41.25 DraftKings points, and 39.3 FanDuel points against the Thunder. Over his past nine games, he has averaged 31.7 DraftKings points and 29.8 FanDuel points per game.
The Nets-Kings contest in Brooklyn has the highest over/under on the board, and Johnson is a great way to get some exposure to what should be a high-scoring and highly entertaining matchup.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Detroit Pistons – $11,600 DraftKings, $12,200 FanDuel
The Pistons are extremely short-handed up front, and now they get a visit from the Joker, who has the highest ceiling projection of all centers on FanDuel and the second-highest on DraftKings. He ranks second in ceiling projection overall, trailing only Giannis across the industry.
The two-time MVP is coming off a down game in Toronto, but before that had a run of five triple-doubles in seven games. That includes back-to-back games with over 75 DraftKings points against the Spurs and Nets. On Sunday against Brooklyn, he had a ridiculous 35 points, 20 rebounds, 11 assists, and 87.5 DraftKings points, reminding everyone just how high his ceiling can be.
Before you stay away thinking this game will be too one-sided, it’s worth noting that the Nuggets have dropped four straight games and are only favored by one point. They’ll hope this is a “get right” spot and lean heavily on Jokic to get them headed back in the right direction.
Top Value: Bol Bol at Phoenix Suns – $3,100 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel
Many of my picks on this slate have been on the expensive side, so let’s wrap up with an ultra-cheap play that can help counterbalance the hefty salaries in your lineup if needed. Bol has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus of all centers under $6.5K on DraftKings and the highest projected Plus/Minus of all centers under $7.5K on FanDuel.
He is typically playing 14 to 20 minutes off the Orlando bench and accumulating enough counting stats to be an option at this cheap price point. For example, he had six points and six boards in 16 minutes against the Spurs on Tuesday for 18.2 FanDuel points and 18 DraftKings points.
Even though his minutes aren’t high enough to give him a high ceiling (barring injury), he has been doing enough to be worth a look as a punt play at this bargain salary in a matchup where the Magic will have to keep a big man on the floor against the Suns.
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