GOLF

PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks for THE PLAYERS Championship

By Landon Silinsky @landonjake24
Mar 8, 2023

The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.

The PGA TOUR continues its Florida this week for THE PLAYERS Championship. TPC Sawgrass will be the host course and is a 7,256-yard par 72 with Bermuda grass greens. We have another loaded field this week, as 43 of the top 50 players in the world will be in attendance. This is always one of the most volatile events of the year due to all the water hazards, so make sure to be mindful of that when selecting your golfers.

I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.

My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green

If you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.

PGA DFS Core Picks

Rory McIlroy ($11,000 DraftKings)

The obvious pay-up option this week is McIlroy. Rahm is $800 more expensive and coming off a bad showing at the API, while McIlroy was a missed Kitayama putt on 17 from going to a playoff, where he likely would have won. The putter let him down last week because he gained over six strokes ball-striking. He’ll now come back to Sawgrass, where he’s been historically strong, having posted a win in 2019 and three additional top 10s.

I don’t think much more needs to be said about McIlroy at this point. He’s the odds-on favorite to take down the event, and you can easily afford his $11,000 salary with all the value this week. Just depends on how you want to construct your rosters.

Rory is available on PrizePicks to finish more/less 70.1 in Round 1. You can claim a $100 sign-up bonus using promo code LABS.

Scottie Scheffler ($10,600 DraftKings)

Checking in at $400 less than McIlroy is Scheffler, who is simply a machine. The last time Scheffler finished worse than T12 was at the CJ CUP back in October. Since then, he’s posted a win at the WMPO, and three additional top-four finishes, which include his T4 last week at the API. Scheffler ranks No. 1 in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green over his past 24 rounds and No. 2 in SG: Ball-Striking. He also ranks No. 1 on TOUR in bogey avoidance, which is quite important this week.

He doesn’t have the history at Sawgrass that some others do, but he was caught on the brutal end of the weather draw last year and was actually T7 after his first round here in 2020 before the event was canceled. I go back and forth weekly about who the best golfer in the world is, but the truth is, Scheffler has many of the same traits that Rahm has, but he’s also elite with a wedge in his hand.

I’ve waxed poetic on the reigning Master’s champion long enough, you can easily go to him over McIlroy this week and feel just as good about it.

His floor is so ridiculously high right now, and we obviously know what his ceiling is.

Patrick Cantlay ($9,700 DraftKings)

Cantlay has missed three consecutive cuts at TPC Sawgrass, which is a bit strange. However, due to the designated events, he’s played in Florida more times this year already than he’s ever have, which only bodes well for his prospects this week. He did start his career with back-to-back top-25s here and shot an opening round 67 in 2020 before COVID took over. Cantlay is on fire at the moment, finishing T4 last week at the API and T3 the week prior at Genesis.

In this stretch, he ranks No. 1 in this field in SG:Tee-to-Green, SG: Ball-Striking, and SG: Total. He also ranks No. 1 on TOUR in par 4 scoring average, par 5 scoring average, and sits second behind Scottie Scheffler in bogey avoidance.

I don’t think people quite grasp how good Cantlay is at golf, but they might this week if he’s hoisting the trophy Sunday evening.

Justin Thomas ($9,400 DraftKings)

JT has not had his best stuff this season but has actually been pretty consistent, having finished no worse than T25 since the start of 2023. This is a price play more than anything, as a $9,400 JT is almost an auto-play regardless of venue. It does help, however, that he boasts probably the best course history in the field. Thomas has yet to miss a cut at TPC Sawgrass in seven career starts while winning this event back in 2021 and posting a T11 and T3 as well.

It’s really been the irons that have held him back, which is normally his biggest weapon. He sits just 67th in SG: Approach over his past 24 rounds. We know he still boasts arguably the best around-the-green game on TOUR, which is almost paramount if you want to win this event.

Hopefully, being back at the friendly confines of Sawgrass wakes JT up a bit, but even the version we’ve been seeing lately is good enough to justify his price tag.

He’s going to be one of the chalkiest players on the slate.

Will Zalatoris ($8,800 DraftKings)

I am not sure where the rest of the community will land on Zalatoris this week. He let a lot of people down last week with a T53 at Bay Hill after barely sneaking through the cut on Friday. His price has since been slashed by $600, which is a pretty significant discount for this elite of a ball-striker. In two career starts at this event, Zalatoris has yet to miss a cut while finishing T26 and T21, respectively.

When elite players struggle one week, I love immediately going back to them the following week because it’s so unlikely they repeat that performance the following week. I know that’s incredibly narrative-based, but that’s just how I feel about Willy Z this week. Oh, by the way, he ranks fourth in the field behind only Max Homa, Rory McIlroy, and Doug Ghim (?) in SG: Tee-to-Green per round at TPC Sawgrass.

Last week we may have been a bit hasty in rostering him, considering he was $200 more than Xander Schauffele and $200 more than Cantlay, but we don’t have that problem this week. His $8,800 tag is more than justifiable, and I expect a huge bounce-back performance this week.

Jason Day (8,000 DraftKings)

It took me a really long time to get here but finally made it. Day’s recent form has been undeniable, and I am ready to declare that he’s back. So far in 2023, he’s finished T18, T7, fifth, T9, and T10. During this stretch, he ranks No. 2 in SG: Total in this field, behind only Max Homa.

When he was the No. 1 player in the world back in 2016, he was arguably the best putter and around-the-green player on earth, which is exactly where he’s been dominating so far this season. He ranks No. 1 SG: Putting over his past 16 rounds, and he’s averaging over .2 strokes per round more than Sam Ryder, who ranks second. Day won THE PLAYERS in 2016 and has had two additional top-10 finishes since then. He’s priced around 27-1 at most sportsbooks, which makes his $8,000 salary look borderline silly.

It’s scary to say, but Day is basically a cash game lock this week.

PGA DFS Value Picks

Adam Scott ($7,700 DraftKings)

Another course history play that I can’t quit is Scott. The Aussie is a grizzled veteran who routinely makes the cut at the toughest of events, and THE PLAYERS is no different. He won this event all the way back in 2004 and has played Sawgrass each of the past 10 years. Last year he missed his first cut here this decade, and before that, he had posted six top-19 finishes across his previous nine starts.

Scott has played well this season with a T21 at the Sony Open and a T31 last week at the API, where he gained strokes from tee-to-green in three of his four rounds. I highly doubt Scott is going to show up in any optimals this week, but just knowing he’s played this event almost 20 times is more than enough for me at his quite reasonable $7,700 price tag.

Keegan Bradley ($7,500 DraftKings)

Last week was a roller coaster for Bradley at the API, who opened with a 68 before going full Keegan and almost missing the cut on Friday after a second-round 77. Thankfully he played great over the weekend and worked his way up to a T10 finish. So far in 2023, Bradley has played well at the courses he’s always played well at and struggled at the courses he’s always struggled at.

TPC Sawgrass, thankfully, is one of his good courses. Bradley’s played here each of the past 10 years and has two top-10 finishes across his past four starts. It’s hard to ever fully trust a guy that could completely lose it at a moment’s notice, but he’s been putting well, and his history here speaks for itself.

At $7,500, you can certainly do worse.

Rickie Fowler ($7,500 DraftKings)

Fowler, much like Jason Day, has been redacted by me for a long time now, but he’s been trending up, and I’m ready to declare that he’s back as well. Dating back to the Fall, Fowler has five top-20 finishes in nine starts and has missed just one cut in that stretch. He ranks fifth in SG: Approach, 23rd in SG: Tee-to-Green, and 17th in SG: Total over his past 24 rounds and has very much looked like vintage Rickie of late.

People may have forgotten, but Fowler won this event all the way back in 2015, which basically put him on the map. He’s since struggled mightily, but his form of late is hard to ignore, and at $7,500, he presents quite a bit of value.

Corey Conners ($7,400 DraftKings)

Conners is usually a plug-and-play at prices like this when the fields get tough, and this week is no different. After a couple of underwhelming performances at the WMPO and Genesis, he bounced back nicely last week at the API with a T21. He gained just under seven strokes ball-striking, but the encouraging sign was that he also gained strokes putting as well.

So far, in three starts at TPC Sawgrass, Conners has failed to miss a cut while finishing seventh in 2021 and T26 last year. He’s too good of a ball-striker to be priced at $7,400, even in these fields. When you factor in his course history, Conners becomes one of the best points-per-dollar plays on the slate.

Keith Mitchell ($7,400 DraftKings)

Mitchell keeps chugging right along and is another player we’re getting a massive discount on this week. He finished T24 last week at Bay Hill, which marked his fifth straight made cut. Mitchell already has two top-five finishes on the season at Pebble Beach and Genesis and has played pretty well at Sawgrass over the years, making three of four cuts with a T13 last year.

He ranks No. 1 in SG: Off-the-Tee and No. 5 in SG: Ball-Striking over his past 24 rounds in this field, and we know he’s a much better putter historically on Bermuda compared to other surfaces. There are some guys below $7,400 that could be in play this week, but I really don’t think there’s much of a need to drop below Mitchell in cash games.

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