UFC 285 features the heavily anticipated return of Jon Jones. Jones is one of — if not the — best ever mixed martial artists, and after a three-year layoff, he returns to challenge for heavyweight gold. It’s a stacked card top to bottom, with a co-main event featuring women’s flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko and 12 more fights. Lineups lock at 5:30 p.m. eastern time.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly, to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
As always, multiple five-round fights are an interesting strategic decision for UFC DFS. Particularly in cash games, where stacking both five-round fighters (when there’s only one) is the dominant strategy. For UFC 285, the main event is roughly even money to end inside the distance, while the co-main is -175.
In theory, at least, that makes stacking the main event while picking one fighter in the co-main (Shevchenko, the prohibitive favorite) the logical strategy. However, That makes things difficult from a salary standpoint at her price. Additionally, her fight should have a higher overall activity rate than the heavyweights. Grasso could outscore the main event loser even with a late stoppage.
Thus, I’ll likely be stacking both fights this time out, but I’m considering trying to pick a winner in the main event.
Jon Jones ($8,400) vs. Cyril Gane ($7,800)
The story of this fight from a gambling perspective is the line movement. When the fight was announced, Gane was a moderate favorite. Since then, money has poured in on Jones, taking him from +140 or so to -170. That’s a reasonable adjustment for a lot of reasons.
Jones is the overall more skilled fighter here. Truthfully, he’s probably the most skilled fighter ever. He’s a dynamic striker who uses his extreme length to attack from all angles and utilizes standing elbows better than any MMA fighter I’ve ever seen. He also has high-level grappling skills, utilizing a variety of foot sweeps and low-risk takedowns mixed in with more traditional wrestling.
Gane may be the better pure striker, though. The former kickboxer is so good on his feet that even former champion Francis Ngannou turned into a wrestler when fighting him. Ngannou attempted five takedowns against Gane (landing four). In his other 13 UFC fights, he attempted just three.
Ngannou’s success at wrestling Gane is a big reason why Jones is favored. While Gane has had time to improve on his wrestling since then, Jones is by far the best wrestler he’s fought. A camp dedicated to stopping takedowns is great — but it’s no match for a lifetime spent wrestling.
Gane has a big power edge, though, which gives him a clear path to upside. With Jones moving up a weight class, that power could be too much for him to handle. Both men have a fairly clear path to a big score here — a quick knockout from Gane or a wrestling clinic from Jones.
Ultimately, I expect a fully motivated Jon Jones to show up Saturday, which is a problem for Gane. Jones has, by and large, had excellent striking defense in his career, so landing that big shot would be hard. With salaries as close as they are, he’s my preferred side here — though I’ll want some of both fighters in my GPP lineups.
For cash games, this one is volatile enough that I’ll likely include both fighters, though fading Gane is tempting.
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Co-Main Event
Valentina Shevchenko ($9,400) vs. Alexa Grasso ($6,800)
After a close call in her last title defense (a split decision win), Valentina Shevchenko is back as a massive favorite. She’s -750 or better throughout the industry — and that feels like a pretty fair line. Shevchenko’s weakness is her wrestling defense and bottom game, while Grasso is a pure striker.
Shevchenko is also a deadly counterpuncher, while Grasso is aggressive and throws a ton of volume. It’s an awful stylistic matchup for Grasso. Shevchenko is a must-play for cash games due to the five-round nature of her fight. She either gets a finish or extra rounds to work with.
The more interesting question is how she fares as a GPP option. She’s priced between the other big favorites on the card and has the worst stoppage odds (though it’s close) of the bunch. She’ll need a few different things to go right in order to top their scores.
I’m anticipating a slower pace in this bout, which should lead to a good-not-great score for the champion. For Grasso, the big appeal is cost-savings, as well as her high volume of strikes. If this one goes into the championship rounds, she could post a reasonable score even in a loss.
Both Sean Zerillo and I are anticipating just that in this fight — as we discussed on the latest episode of our Action Network UFC Betting Preview:
The Easy Chalk
Bo Nickal ($9,600)
We probably don’t need to spend a ton of time on Nickal. The three-time D1 national champion wrestler is making his UFC debut against journeyman Jamie Pickett ($6,600) on Saturday, with plenty of hype behind him. There’s a decent shot he closes as the biggest favorite in a UFC fight of all time.
He’s as high as -2000 overall, with -240 odds to end things inside of the first round. The key for Nickal’s DFS prospects will be picking up a first-minute finish bonus. If he doesn’t, there’s a good chance that Shevchenko of Rakhmonov can end up with a higher score in more drawn-out fights.
The biggest problem for Nickal is his grappling is so good he’s unlikely to need more than one takedown before getting a finish. Based on his odds, he’s almost certain to top the 100-point mark, but he could miss the optimal of Shevchenko or Rakhmonov eclipse him at lower salaries.
He’s, without hyperbole, the safest DFS pick ever, with very strong upside based on his quick-win bonus potential. For more on how I’m investing in Nickal long-term, head here.
Shavkat Rakhmonov ($9,200)
While he’s not getting the hype that Nickal is, the hardcore UFC fans are just as high on Rakhmonov. Rakhmonov is 16-0 as a professional and 4-0 in the UFC and has never heard a judge’s decision in his career. The Combat Sambo stylist is cut from the same cloth as the Nurmagomedovs and Makhachevs of the world — with the addition of even more dangerous striking.
He faces his toughest test to date on Saturday in UFC veteran Geoff Neal ($7,000). Neal is a top 10 welterweight, with wins over Vicente Luque and Belal Muhammed. Still, similar things were said about Rakhmonov’s last opponent, Neil Magny. Magny has a win over Neal — and Rakhmonov coasted to a second-round victory.
Rakhmonov might have a higher ceiling than Nickal here, as Neal could put up enough of a fight to allow Rakhmonov to pile up takedowns. It’s tough to fit both, but I want to be overweight on the field on Rakhmonov for GPPs.
The Value Play
Viviane Araujo ($7,900)
Araujo is a slight underdog in a fight that’s +180 to go to a decision. She’s also seen a bit of line movement in her favor this week and would probably be an extra $100 if salaries were released today.
That’s all we need to know when targeting salary-saving options for cash games. She should put up a serviceable score against Amanda Ribas ($8,300) even in a loss, with a better 45% chance of capping it off with a win bonus at the current odds.
If looking to save even more salary, Jessica Penne ($7,300) has a similar thesis, with even better odds of making it to the judges. Either or both make sense in lineups trying to fit all of the heavy favorites on Saturday.
The Upside Plays
Cody Garbrandt ($8,500)
Cody “No Love” Garbrandt is occasionally referred to as “no chin” due to his inability to take a punch. While that’s certainly concerning, he’s pretty clearly the better overall fighter than his opponent, Trevin Jones ($7,700). Garbrandt is a former champion who’s fought the best at 125 and 135, while Jones is 1-3 in the UFC.
While Garbrandt’s chin is suspect, his power is not. He’s finished all but two of his twelve professional wins, all of them by knockout. If he’s able to find Jones’ chin, it could be a short night of work for Cody.
At just $8,500 in salary, a knockout win should put him reasonably close in fantasy points to the fighters priced at or more than $1,000 ahead of him. That could be the key to unlocking some salary while making a somewhat unique lineup.
The Contrarian Pick
Jalin Turner ($7,600)
I did a deep dive into Turner’s fight with Mateusz Gamrot ($8,600) this week for the Action Network. This is an awesome fight between two surging lightweight competitors with vastly different styles. Gamrot is the more established competitor against high-level opponents, but Turner is riding a five-fight win streak over the increasingly difficult competition.
The biggest factor at play (outside of Turner’s abilities) is that Gamrot took this one on short notice. I don’t have any concerns about the favorite’s cardio — but this is a tough matchup to take without a full camp. Turner is the UFC’s tallest lightweight and also fights from a southpaw stance.
Both of those attributes are hard to adjust for and need extensive training to work around. As an example, Gamrot frequently uses a “tree top” single-leg takedown finish. Those won’t work on the much taller Turner — and it’s hard to train that habit out in just a week or two.
The line movement towards Gamrot suggests Turner won’t garner much ownership, but his ceiling is sky-high here. He’s a dangerous striker with sneaky submissions, and any win likely vaults him into the optimal lineup, assuming the heavy favorites handle their business.
The Swing Fights
Marc-Andre Barriault ($8,200) vs. Julian Marquez ($8,000)
One of the keys to many UFC slates is getting the obligatory $8,200/$8,000 fight right. Due to their price points, it’s fairly likely that whoever wins also features in the winning DFS lineup. I don’t see that being much different here, with dangerous middleweights squaring off in a fight that’s -200 to end with a finish.
I truly don’t have a strong read on this fight. Both men have looked great against lower-level competition but have lost when stepping up a level. Barriault has the line movement this time, moving from -125 to -150 on DraftKings this week.
That makes him the better cash game play, based on being a solid odds-based value for his price. However, I prefer Marquez for GPPs. The money coming in on his opponent is an indication he’ll be under-owned, and they have virtually identical inside-the-distance props. That means a greater percentage of Marquez’s win condition is a stoppage.
This doesn’t quite rise to the level of “include one or the other in every lineup,” though. There are certainly scenarios where this is a slower-paced fight, and cheaper fighters post better scores.
Still, I’ll have exposure to both.
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