NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Monday, Feb. 27): Value Available in Detroit

Monday features a four-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Use our PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 sign-up bonus on NBA player props.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

If the Hornets aren’t careful, LaMelo Ball is going to play them out of the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes. They’ve won four straight games, which has put them significantly behind the Rockets, Spurs, and Pistons for one of the three worst records in the league. That would drop their shot at the No. 1 pick by -1.5%, and while that’s not a huge number, every little bit matters when chasing a potential franchise-altering player like Wembanyama.

Ball has been the biggest reason for the team’s recent success. He’s scored at least 62.5 DraftKings points in three of their past four wins, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of their past six games. Overall, he’s increased his production to 1.43 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s playing around 38 minutes on most nights.

Ball stands out as one of the best plays of the day in an outstanding matchup vs. Detroit. They rank 28th in defensive efficiency, and the Hornets’ implied team total of 121.0 is the top mark on the slate by more than five points.

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Value

Killian Hayes was demoted to the bench at the beginning of the month, but he has moved back into the Pistons’ starting lineup of late. He’s started each of the team’s past six contests, and he’s averaged just over 30 minutes per game in those contests. Hayes doesn’t bring much to the table as a scorer, but he’s capable of stuffing the stat sheet in the peripheral categories. He’s averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute this season, so 30 minutes should be enough for him to pay off his current salary.

Additionally, the Pistons have the potential to be pretty shorthanded vs. the Hornets. Jaden Ivey has already been ruled out for personal reasons, while Bogdan Bogdanovic is questionable. Hayes has increased his usage rate by +1.9% and his assist rate by +4.7% with Ivey and Cade Cunningham off the floor this season, so he should be asked to take on a more prominent role in the offense.

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Fast Break

C.J. McCollum stands out as a solid tournament option on FanDuel. He isn’t expected to carry much ownership, and his $7,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 71%. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.09 vs. the Magic is also the top mark at the point guard position.

Jalen Suggs is an interesting value option on DraftKings, where his $4,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He’s been a solid source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.22 over his past 10 games, and he’s scored at least 32.5 DraftKings points in two of his past five contests. He has a low floor, but he has a much higher ceiling than his current price tag suggests.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Derrick White isn’t exactly priced like a stud vs. the Knicks, but he has the potential for stud-like production. The Celtics are going to be without Jaylen Brown for personal reasons, and White should enter the starting lineup in his absence. White has also been one of the biggest beneficiaries in games without Brown this season, increasing his usage rate by a team-high +6.8%. He’s averaged 35.27 DraftKings points in those contests, representing tremendous value upside at just $5,500. The Knicks aren’t an ideal matchup, but this is simply too cheap of a price tag to ignore.

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Value

Alec Burks is another outstanding value target for the Pistons. He’s priced at just $3,500 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%, and he should see a big uptick in playing time with Ivey sidelined. He’s currently projected for just under 30 minutes in our NBA Models, and Burks has averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute this season. Players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.58, and Burks has personally averaged 27.65 DraftKings points when projected for 28-32 minutes (per the Trends tool). Ultimately, Burks stands out as one of the best values on the DraftKings slate.

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Fast Break

Josh Richardson is another player who has provided tremendous value of late. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.30 over his past 10 games, and his role with the Pelicans is only growing. He was acquired from the Spurs before the trade deadline, and Richardson has started the past two games for his new squad. He racked up more than 33.7 minutes in their last contest, despite that game turning into a blowout. Richardson has averaged 1.00 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he can do plenty of damage with that much playing time.

Terry Rozier is a potential bounce-back candidate on Monday. He has been a massive disappointment over his past two games, but he’s shot a combined 5-25 from the field and 2-13 from 3-point range. Rozier is never going to be confused with a sharpshooter, but he’s due for some positive regression.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Gordon Hayward is another potential option for the Hornets in this juicy matchup vs. the Pistons. Hayward has provided positive value in six of his past seven games, and he’s displayed an elite ceiling over that stretch. He has two performances with at least 49.75 DraftKings points, including 58.25 DraftKings points Friday vs. the Timberwolves.

Hayward will likely be asked to do a bit more than usual if P.J. Washington is unable to suit up. He’s currently considered doubtful after missing the last game, and J.T. Thor started in his absence on Saturday. Thor posted a usage rate of just 6.5% across 25.5 minutes, so there is more work available for all the starters if he replaces Washington once again. Hayward has increased his usage rate by +3.4% with Washington off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.02 DraftKings points per minute.

Hayward’s appeal would be slightly diminished if Kelly Oubre starts instead of Thor on Monday, but he would still be an excellent midrange option.

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Value

If Bogdanovic is ruled out for the Pistons, Hamidou Diallo has the potential to see a nice uptick in playing time. Diallo has always been a capable per-minute producer, and he’s averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s dirt-cheap at $3,600 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%, so he doesn’t need a ton of minutes to potentially return value.

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Fast Break

Grant Williams is another strong value option on DraftKings, where his $3,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He isn’t nearly the same per-minute producer as Diallo – he’s averaged just 0.71 DraftKings points per minute this season – but his workload is a bit more secure. He’s currently projected for around 23 minutes with Brown out of the lineup, so he’s a solid inclusion in stars-and-scrubs builds.

Brandon Ingram is coming off a poor performance vs. the Knicks on Saturday, but everyone on the Pelicans struggled in that spot. Prior to that outing, he had posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his previous eight games on FanDuel. He remains slightly underpriced on FanDuel, where his $8,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Jayson Tatum has had a phenomenal season. His MVP candidacy has taken a hit through no fault of his own – Nikola Jokic has simply been that good – but he continues to put together excellent fantasy performances. He’s scored at least 60.75 DraftKings points in two of his past three games, with Saturday’s matchup vs. the 76ers serving as the lone exception. Philly ranks fifth in defensive efficiency and 26th in pace, so it’s not surprising that he struggled a bit in that contest.

The Knicks are another subpar matchup, but the absence of Brown should make up for it. Tatum has increased his usage rate by +2.6% in 10 games without Brown this season, resulting in an average of 54.85 DraftKings points per game.

Finally, Tatum’s price tag is down to just $10,200, which represents a significant discount. He was priced as high as $11,300 before the All-Star break, so this is a phenomenal opportunity to buy low on one of the best players in the league.

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Value

The Warriors decision to draft James Wiseman with the No. 2 pick in the 2020 NBA Draft has the potential to be a franchise-altering mistake. The Warriors are obviously still very good when healthy, but health is becoming increasingly problematic for their aging core. Wiseman was supposed to be the guy to bridge the gap from Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green to the next era, but he was a massive disappointment. The fact that guys like Ball and Tyrese Haliburton are All-Star-caliber players drafted after Wiseman only makes things worse.

However, Wiseman has a chance to revitalize his career in Detroit. Scoring the ball has never been an issue, and he’s unsurprisingly averaged 1.00 DraftKings points per minute this season. His playing time has been limited, but he has the potential for a monster workload on Tuesday. In addition to Ivey and Bogdanovic, Jalen Duren has also been ruled out, while Isaiah Stewart is listed as questionable. If Stewart is unable to go, Wiseman and Marvin Bagley should see all the minutes they can handle in the Pistons’ frontcourt.

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Fast Break

Bol Bol’s role with the Magic has decreased over the past month, and his price tag has dipped to $3,100 on DraftKings as a result. However, with Jonathan Isaac out of the lineup, Bol could eclipse 20 minutes Monday vs. the Pelicans. That’s not a ton, but Bol has averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute this season. That would give him a chance to return value.

Willy Hernangomez has PF eligibility on FanDuel, while he’s only center eligible on DraftKings. Regardless of what position you play him at, he has some appeal on this slate. Hernangomez is one of the best per-minute producers in fantasy, and he’s averaged 1.56 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He doesn’t typically see much playing time, but that hasn’t stopped him from posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.17 over his past 10 games. Larry Nance Jr. has also been ruled out, so it’s possible Hernangomez picks up a few additional minutes.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Joel Embiid is a lower-priority stud on this slate. He has been absolutely fantastic this season, and he’s averaged 1.66 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s gone off for at least 60.5 DraftKings points in three straight games, and that doesn’t even include the crazy 3-pointer that didn’t count against the Celtics on Saturday.

However, center has plenty of strong value options, and Embiid draws a difficult matchup against the Heat. They’ve played at the third-slowest pace this season, and they rank fourth in defensive efficiency. This will be Embiid’s first matchup against the Heat this season, but they have historically done as good a job against him as anyone. They’ve limited him to just 41.13 DraftKings points over their past 10 meetings, which is well-below salary-based expectations.

Ultimately, Embiid provides a similar ceiling to guys like Ball and Tatum, but they check in at reduced price tags. Embiid is more of a tournament pivot than a cash option on this slate.

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Value

Mark Williams has been a per-minute monster in limited playing time this season. He’s averaged 1.21 DKFP per minute, and with Mason Plumlee now in Los Angeles, the coast is clear for Williams to assume a much larger workload. He’s played at least 29 minutes in four of his past six contests, and he’s racked up at least 33.5 DraftKings points in three of them. That includes 48.0 DraftKings points in his last outing, which was against the Heat.

Monday’s contest vs. the Pistons should be significantly friendlier. They allow the fifth-most DKFP per game to opposing centers, and they are going to be significantly undermanned vs. the Hornets. It’s another phenomenal spot for Williams to rack up points and rebounds.

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Fast Break

Marvin Bagley is one of the few value options that stands out as a better target on FanDuel. Not only does he have dual PF/C eligibility, but his $4,900 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 66%. That may not jump off the page, but it’s tied for the third-best mark at center on Monday’s slate. Bagley returned to the lineup in the team’s last game and responded with 44.6 FanDuel points in 27.6 minutes. If Stewart joins Duren on the sidelines, he would be a very tough option to avoid.

Jonas Valanciunas stands out as the clear top value at center on FanDuel, where his 91% Bargain Rating leads the position by a mile. Valanciunas hasn’t been quite as good as usual on a per-minute basis of late, but he could see a nice bump in minutes with Nance out of the lineup. He’s averaged 29.2 minutes in five games without Nance and Zion Williamson, resulting in an average of 31.0 FanDuel points per game.