The PGA TOUR stays in the Sunshine state for a second straight tournament, and almost all the biggest names in golf are back in action after taking last week off. The Honda Classic was caught in between two elevated events that wrapped up the West Coast Swing and two elevated events in Florida. Even with most of the big names taking last week off, it was still a very compelling tournament, with Chris Kirk getting his first win in almost eight years by beating Eric Cole in a playoff after an extremely dramatic finish.
Kirk and Cole are both in the field this week as the attention shifts from Palm Beach Gardens to Orlando for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The API usually draws a good field to Bay Hill Club and Lodge, but this week it also gets the added boost of being an elevated event and helping players ramp up to THE PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass next week.
For more details on the course and what stats to look for, check out the stats preview from Matt Vincenzi.
Since this is an invitational, it makes sense that the invitee list reads like a current “Who’s Who” of golf. The field itself is a little bit smaller than typical on the PGA TOUR, with 120 golfers ready to tee it up. A whopping 44 of the top 50 in the Official World Golf Ranking are in the player pool. Each of the top 30 golfers in the FedExCup standings and all 13 PGA TOUR winners are ready to roll at Arnie’s place. The “Big Three” of Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, and Rory McIlroy will be back in action. Scheffler is defending his title here from last year, while Rory won back in 2018. Other past champions in the field this year include Tyrrell Hatton, Jason Day and Francesco Molinari.
In this post, we try to focus on players who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding these high-leverage plays with low ownership are critical for GPP lineups. In this post, we’re looking for ways to go against the grain and take advantage of golfers who most fantasy players won’t be watching as closely.
Since these are GPP picks, we also can accept a little more risk if it raises the ceiling of the lineup. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownerships create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that usually lead to large-field success.
This weekly post focuses on players who are strong plays in GPP contests. These contests usually have lots of entries and pay out big prizes to the top few percent. One example is the DraftKings $1M Pitch + Putt, which pays out $250K to first place. In large contests like this one, it is critical to try and target players who have a chance to outperform salary expectations and come with low projected ownership.
The players highlighted will be good options if they deliver in all formats, but they come with risk factors that usually keep them from being the safest plays. Safety and reliability should be the focus of lineups in cash and double-up contests, where finishing in the top spot isn’t quite as important. On the other hand, GPPs call for high-risk, high-reward options with high ceilings and low projected ownership. To find specific guidance for all the different kinds of contests, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A couple of key new stats to specifically use for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
Usually, I rely on the Stroked Gained Model, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players that gain shots on approach since week-to-week putting performance can be extremely volatile, even for the best players on the PGA TOUR.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Tony Finau $9,300
The top options in the game will all be here and make strong plays across the entire top of the leaderboard. If you are looking for a second star to pair with your favorite big-name selection or trying to find a player who comes in with less fanfare but still brings upside, check out Finau. He only has a 13% projected ownership, which is the second-lowest of any player with a salary of $9K or more.
Despite the fact that people are passing on him, Finau shows very well in the sims, landing in 19.7% of optimal lineups, which is the fourth-most of any player in the field. The disparity between that Perfect% and his projected ownership gives him the third-highest SimLeverage in the entire field.
He also matches 10 Pro Trends, making him one of eight golfers in the field with double-digit Pro Trends coming into play.
One of the reasons people may be passing on Finau is that he hasn’t played this event much in his career. He has made four trips to Bay Hill and only made the cut twice, finishing outside the top 25. However, most of those appearances were early in his career before he took his game to the next level.
Since his last appearance in 2020, Finau has won four PGA TOUR events, including a FedExCup playoff event at the Northern Trust. He has regularly contended in difficult conditions as well, with four top 10s in majors since then as well.
While staying off the radar, Finau has still been posting good results, making the cut in six straight events dating back to his most recent victory at the Cadence Bank Houston Open last fall. He has finished in the top 20 in each of those six events, including two weeks ago at Riviera, where he finished with a closing 67 after starting the week with a 72 and having to work in Round 2 to get under the cut line.
So far this season, Finau ranks sixth in SG: Approach and 24th in SG: Putting. He also ranks in the top 15 in Bogey Avoidance, Birdies or Better Gained, Scrambling and SG: Par 5 over his past 36 rounds. The lack of recent success on this track makes him a little riskier than some elite options, but his upside, if he gets his putter rolling, is worth a look in GPP.
Using our PrizePicks promo code LABS ($100 sign-up bonus), you could bet Finau to finish under 72.0 strokes in Round 1 if you’re looking for more action.
Patrick Cantlay $9,100
A little like Finau, the thing Cantlay doesn’t have at Bay Hill is past course experience. Somewhat surprisingly, the nine-year PGA TOUR pro who has played 146 events has never teed it up at the API. While that does add an unknown, getting his skill set and upside at barely over $9K is a little ridiculous, even in such an overloaded field.
Cantlay has done very well on similar courses with difficult setups and elite fields. He has won the Memorial Tournament twice and claimed three career victories at FedExCup Playoff events, including two in 2021 when he claimed the FedEx Cup itself. He has the long iron game that should fit the course well and is eighth in this elite field in SG: Tee-To-Green.
Cantlay has a higher Perfect% than any other golfer in the field, meaning he landed in the optimal lineup in our sims more than any other golfer in the field, even including Rahm, Rory, and Scheffler. Part of that is that his salary is lower, for sure, but part of that is also that his game seems to be such a perfect fit.
He is projected to have just a 17.4% ownership which is the third-lowest of players with a salary of $9K or less. He has the highest SimLeverage in the entire field and the fourth-highest ceiling projection in the entire field.
Could he bomb out in his first try at this venue–sure. However, the potential upside he brings at this salary is too good to pass up in GPP lineups, which can afford a little more boom-or-bust. He’s a swing for the fences but one that leaves you plenty of salary to spend in other spots.
Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Sungjae Im $8,900
While Jason Day, Tyrell Hatton and Viktor Hovland are all excellent plays in this price range and some of my personal favorites, they are all expected to be very highly owned. Public sentiment on Im, on the other hand, may be down a little bit after he didn’t win last week at The Honda Classic when he was the prohibitive favorite in a lighter field.
Im has the highest ceiling projection of any player with a salary $9K or lower, though, including Hatton, Day and Hovland. He also has a significantly lower ownership projection at only 13.2%, which is enough to give him a positive SimLeverage, since he has the second-highest Perfect% of all players $9K and under.
This season, Im has continued to his routine of playing just about every tournament and has made the cut in five straight appearances since missing the cut at The Sony Open in Hawaii. While he hasn’t won yet, he did place in the top six at both the WM Phoenix Open and the Farmers Insurance Open in elite fields.
Bay Hill has always been a course that plays to Im’s strengths as a shotmaker and balanced performer throughout the bag. He has made the cut and finished in the top 25 in each of his four career events on this track, including third-place finishes in 2019 and 2020.
Keith Mitchell $8,000
Mitchell has the length off the tee needed to contend at Bay Hill and is the kind of long, straight hitter that can find plenty of success here. He had a pair of near misses on the West Coast swing, finishing T4 at Pebble Beach and T5 at The Genesis Open two weeks ago when he played in the final group with Max Homa and Jon Rahm. With those strong finishes, he has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his past seven tournaments dating back to last fall.
He also matches 11 Pro Trends, joining Scheffler, Rahm and Rory as the only players in the entire field with more than 10 Pro Trends.
Mitchell passed on last week’s trip to PGA National, where he won his only PGA TOUR career victory, but he’s back in the field this week. He has a very strong track record at this event, finishing in the top six in 2019 and 2020 and making the cut in each of the past two years. He has been able to put himself into contention in the last few events with a dramatically improved short game. If he can showcase that at Bay Hill, he could be right in the mix again on Sunday.
Around this salary, there are lots of good options, but with just a 12% projected ownership, Mitchell brings a high ceiling and lots of potential leverage. He has the 17th-highest ceiling projection in the entire field, and no one $8K or cheaper ranks above him. His ownership percentage is also lower than any of the players with higher ceiling projections, again setting up nice potential leverage if he has another strong showing.
Value PGA DFS Picks
Adrian Meronk $7,200
International players and specifically DP World Tour (European Tour) players, have a good history at this event, and they typically shine when the winds kick up like they’re expected to do this week. On that tour, players face similar challenges with fast greens and thick rough and gusty winds. There are some nice international plays under $8K, and two of them are my favorite value picks for this week.
I’m back to Meronk for a second straight week after he finished strong on Sunday to earn a top-15 finish at the Honda Classic. He also made the cut and exceeded salary-based expectations at the Genesis Invitational, finding success as he brings his game stateside to the PGA TOUR. The lanky 29-year-old from Poland won the Irish Open last July to become Poland’s first DP World Tour winner and added another win in December at the Australian Open.
Meronk has the fourth-highest SimLeverage of players under $7K with an ownership projection barely over 3%.
There are several other strong plays to consider in this price range like Rickie Fowler, Seamus Power, Tommy Fleetwood and Min Woo Lee, but they all come in with more than double Meronk’s ownership projection.
Ryan Fox $7,000
Fox finished second behind Meronk at the Irish Open as part of his impressive 2022 on the DP World Tour that included two wins at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship and the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, in addition to eight other top-10 finishes. This year he has continued his strong form with top-20 finishes in each of his three most recent events, including his title defense at the Ras Al Khaimah.
The 36-year-old from New Zealand has eight international wins in his career but has not been able to translate that into much stateside success yet. This will also be his first appearance at the Arnold Palmer, so there is some risk involved in rolling with Fox.
However, our projections and our sims indicate that his game should translate very well to the course and the conditions. Fox has the fourth-highest SimLeverage in the entire field. He is in 9.3% of Optimal lineups in the sims, which is the second-highest mark for any player under $8K. His ownership projection is only 3.6% which is how his SimLeverage rises to elite levels.
He also matches seven Pro Trends tying Min Woo Lee and several others for the second-most of any player under $8K. At just $7K, he’s a very attractive off-the-radar play who makes a nice sleeper selection.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Justin Suh $6,900
Suh has exceeded salary-based expectations in nine straight events dating back to last fall’s edition of The CJ Cup, where he finished T29 in a very strong field. He has made the cut in each of his eight tournaments since then, culminating in last week’s T5 finish, which was his best career PGA TOUR result.
The reigning Korn Ferry Tour Player of the Year had the lead after two rounds last week but settled for a fifth-place tie. His shotmaking was on full display, though, and if he gets his putter to cooperate, he brings a very high ceiling. He has the length and SG: Approach to be a solid sleeper play, even though he’s teeing it up on a sponsors exemption at Bay Hill.
Emiliano Grillo $6,600
Another flier to check out his week is Grillo, who made the cut at the Genesis two weeks ago in his most recent tournament after missing the cut in Phoenix. He’s had an uneven start to 2023 after posting a pair of top-five finishes last fall. Coming back to Bay Hill should help him find his groove, though, since he has finished in the top 26 in four of his five career appearances, although he did not play this event last year.
Grillo brings the distance needed to find success here and has plenty of experience playing in the wind. He is projected for under 2% ownership and makes sense given his course history and form from last fall. He’s a long shot, to be sure, but of the available options in this salary section, he brings enough potential to produce above expectations to be one of my favorite fliers of the week.
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