NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Saturday, Feb. 25): Tons of Options in Spurs-Jazz

Saturday features a six-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Use our PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 sign-up bonus on NBA player props.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

The Jazz draw one of the best matchups in fantasy Saturday vs. the Spurs. San Antonio ranks tied for fourth in pace this season, and they’re dead last in defensive efficiency. The Jazz also play fast, and this game leads the slate with a 241.0-point total. Utah’s implied team total of 125.25 ranks first on the slate by more than six points.

The Jazz are also playing without starting point guard Collin Sexton. He’ll miss his second straight game, leaving Jordan Clarkson to run the show offensively. He’s seen a team-high +4.5% usage bump with Sexton and Mike Conley off the floor this season, and he’s increased his assist rate by +6.7%. Add it all up, and he’s averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute in that scenario.

Clarkson is an excellent target across the industry, but he’s an absolute steal at $6,900 on FanDuel.

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Value

The Magic are another team with a strong matchup on Saturday. They’re taking on the Pacers, who rank eighth in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency. Orlando’s implied team total of 116.75 ranks fourth on the slate and represents a significant increase from their season average of 110.9.

Markelle Fultz has also been a nice source of value recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.40 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past eight games. That includes at least 34.0 DraftKings points in three straight contests. He’s currently projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 1.00 DraftKings points per minute for the year. That gives him a solid shot at returning value at $6,600.

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Fast Break

Tre Jones is currently questionable for the Spurs after missing seven of the team’s past eight games, and he could be worth some consideration if he’s able to suit up. He’s averaged 1.00 DraftKings points per minute this season, and his price tag has dipped to just $5,200. It results in a Bargain Rating of 82%, and his matchup vs. the Jazz gives him an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.02.

Ja Morant is worth some stud consideration on FanDuel, where his $9,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%. That has proven to be too cheap of a price tag for Morant this season. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.27 with a comparable salary (per the Trends tool), and the Grizzlies’ implied team total ranks second on the slate. Overall, he’s a solid buy-low target.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Tyrese Haliburton has dual PG/SG eligibility on FanDuel, and he is an outstanding option at either spot. Haliburton came out of the gates strong following the All-Star break, racking up 58.2 FanDuel points Thursday vs. the Celtics. His price tag has remained very reasonable at $8,800 for Saturday’s matchup vs. the Magic, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96%. He also leads all backcourt options with 12 Pro Trends, and he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.38. There’s plenty to like about him in this spot.

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Value

Josh Richardson has been a fantastic source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.74 over his past 10 games. Most of those contests came with the Spurs, but he’s managed a positive Plus/Minus in all three games since joining the Pelicans.

Richardson moved into the starting lineup in the Pelicans’ last game, and he responded with 25.25 DraftKings points in 28.9 minutes. That bodes well for his fantasy prospects moving forward. Richardson has averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s projected for another 28 minutes in our NBA Models. The Knicks are not an ideal matchup, but Richardson is simply too cheap at $4,200.

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Fast Break

Franz Wagner is a potential buy-low target at $6,000 on FanDuel. He has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.46 with a comparable salary, including a mark of +4.27 this season. He also owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.92 vs. the Pacers, so it’s a good matchup as well.

If you’re looking for a pure punt play on DraftKings, Andrew Nembhard could fit the bill. He’s priced at just $3,300 but is projected for a reasonable 24 minutes in our NBA Models. Nembhard has averaged 0.74 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.23 with a comparable salary and minute projection. He doesn’t possess a ton of upside with Haliburton in the lineup, but he’s a decent bet to return value.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Brandon Ingram is another outstanding buy-low target on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $7,800 for Saturday’s matchup vs. the Knicks, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%.

Ingram has been a steady contributor since returning to the lineup following an injury absence, posting a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past eight games on FanDuel. That includes 42.9 FanDuel points in his first game following the All-Star break. He posted a usage rate of 44.5% in that contest, and he’s had a usage rate at least that high in two of his past three contests. Ingram doesn’t provide a ton in the peripheral categories, but his scoring upside alone is enough to warrant consideration at his current salary.

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Value

With Sexton sidelined, Talen Horton-Tucker becomes one of the strongest value options on the slate. He moved into the starting lineup in the team’s last contest, and he finished with 31.25 DraftKings points in just under 35 minutes. He didn’t even play particularly well in that contest, shooting just 2-11 from the field with four turnovers and five personal fouls, so THT has the potential for an even stronger fantasy outing on Saturday. He’s averaged a stout 1.15 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so the thought of him playing 30+ minutes is tantalizing. THT is underpriced across the industry, especially in a juicy matchup vs. the Spurs.

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Fast Break

On the other side of that matchup, Keldon Johnson is starting to turn things around for the Spurs. He’s served as the team’s top offensive option all season, especially since Devin Vassell went down with an injury. That has had a serious impact on his efficiency, but he’s shot the ball much better of late. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games on DraftKings, yet his price tag has barely budged. He’s another strong option in a matchup that should be loaded with fantasy value.

Jeremy Sochan missed the Spurs’ last contest, but he has started to play a more prominent role in their rotation. He logged 32.1 minutes in his final game before the All-Star break, and he’s increased his production to 0.97 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s probable to return to the lineup vs. the Jazz, and he has plenty of upside if he continues to see that much playing time.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Lauri Markkanen has been one of the biggest surprises of the NBA season. He was a solid rotation player in his first five years in the league, but he has blossomed into a legit star in his first year with the Jazz. He’s averaged 25.2 points per game while shooting 51.3% from the field and 40.7% from 3-point range, and he was rightfully rewarded with a trip to the All-Star game.

Markkanen returned from the All-Star break with a huge performance vs. the Thunder, racking up 59.5 DraftKings points in 40.4 minutes. He should continue to carry a slightly larger workload than usual given the team’s current injury situation, especially if Kelly Olynyk is also ruled out.

Markkanen is an excellent option across the industry, but he’s arguably the top play of the day on FanDuel. His $8,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%, and his 12 Pro Trends are tied for the most at any position.

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Value

Steven Adams remains sidelined for the Grizzlies with a knee injury, which means Brandon Clarke should continue to play a sizable role off the bench. He was limited to 15.4 minutes in his last outing, but he picked up four fouls while playing against Joel Embiid and the 76ers. He’s projected for closer to 28 minutes on Saturday, so he should see significantly more playing time as long as he stays out of foul trouble. Clarke has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to return value at his current price tag.

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Fast Break

Kevin Love wasted little time getting into the Heat’s rotation. He started his first game with his new squad, and he ultimately finished with 20.0 DraftKings points in 21.5 minutes. He managed that despite shooting 0-4 from the field and posting a usage rate of just 7.9%. Love also played nearly 14 minutes in the first half before riding the pine in the second half of a blowout loss. He could be looking at better numbers from a volume and efficiency standpoint on Saturday, making him a very appealing value target in an outstanding matchup vs. the Hornets.

Zach Collins has taken over as the Spurs’ top center option following the trade of Jakob Poeltl. He’s racked up at least 27.5 minutes in three straight games, and he’s scored at least 33.0 FanDuel points in each. He’s projected for another 30 minutes on Saturday, and he’s averaged 1.12 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. His price tag has increased recently, but he remains a viable option across the industry.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid are both available on this slate, but Jokic gets the nod in our projections. For starters, he’s simply been the better player this season. He’s averaged 1.77 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s increased that figure to 1.82 over the past month. He continues to triple-double on basically a nightly basis, and he racked up 72.0 DraftKings points against a tough Cavaliers’ frontcourt in his last contest.

His matchup vs. the Grizzlies should be a bit easier. They haven’t been nearly as effective against opposing big men since losing Adams, and the Nuggets will also be a bit shorthanded. Aaron Gordon has been ruled out with a rib injury, and Jokic has increased his usage rate (+1.8%), assist rate (+1.5%), and rebound rate (+3.4%) with Gordon off the floor this season. That’s a scary proposition considering how dominant Jokic already is in all three areas.

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Value

Charles Bassey should serve as the backup center to Collins for the Spurs, and he’s capable of racking up fantasy points very quickly. He’s averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s upped that mark to 1.58 over the past month. Bassey racked up 30.25 DraftKings points in 19.3 minutes in his last contest, and that kind of production is within his range of outcomes vs. the Jazz. He’s an outstanding value target on DraftKings, where his $3,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.

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Fast Break

Walker Kessler has been phenomenal as a rookie, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.85 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s increased his production to 1.20 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for around 32 minutes vs. the Spurs. He’s another player priced at a massive discount on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96%.

Don’t forget about Myles Turner. The only thing that has stopped him from being a dominant fantasy center this season has been inconsistent playing time. However, he’s played at least 36.1 minutes in back-to-back games. Turner has averaged 1.22 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he has an elite ceiling if he’s going to continue to play that much. He should also check in with lower ownership than Jokic, making him an interesting pivot for tournaments.