WM Phoenix Open PGA DFS Stats Preview: Course Fits, GPP Picks, and Values

After a lackluster leaderboard at Pebble Beach, we head to Scottsdale for the WM Phoenix Open. Golf fans will be treated to an outstanding field at one of the best tournaments for viewing of the season. The raucous crowd at the famous 16th hole, followed by a memorable finishing stretch of holes that has turned into a Super Bowl Sunday staple leading up to the big game.

The WMPO is now an “elevated event”, which means the best players in the world will be competing for a $20 million prize pool. The field will feature all the stars, including Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Tony Finau, Sungjae Im, Jordan Spieth, Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay, Collin Morikawa, Tom Kim, Hideki Matsuyama, Xander Schauffele, Max Homa, Matt Fitzpatrick, Sam Burns and Cameron Young.

TPC Scottsdale is a par 71 that measures 7,261 yards and features Bermudagrass greens (although they are much more of a blend rather than pure Bermudagrass).

For GPP contests on DraftKings, I will be breaking down the key stats (past 24 rounds) and selecting golfers from different price tiers to provide flexibility for a DFS lineup.

For large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Don’t forget about the other tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, such as the Trends tool and PGA Correlation Dashboard.

This analysis may reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

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Strokes Gained: Approach

Approach will once again be very important this week.

Last year, Scottie Scheffler did most of his work with the putter, but that seems to be an anomaly when looking at the recent history of the event. In 2021, Brooks Koepka was second in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, trailing only Jordan Spieth, who finished fourth. In 2020, Webb Simpson ranked first in the field in the category en route to a playoff victory over Tony Finau.

The greens are relatively flat, and pins should be accessible.

High-end target: Collin Morikawa – $9,700 (5th SG:APP)
Mid-range target: Tom Kim – $9,200 (2nd SG: APP)
Value target: Brendan Steele – $7,200 (15th SG: APP)

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee

TPC Scottsdale is not an overly long golf course. Distance off the tee is not absolutely essential, but it is a definite asset. A good combination of distance and accuracy should be the recipe this week, with distance still being a bit more important.

High-end target: Rory McIlroy – $10.800 (2nd SG: OTT)
Mid-range target: Cameron Young – $8,900 (8th SG: OTT)
Value target: Keith Mitchell – $7,400 (2nd SG: OTT)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Firm and Fast)

Greens tend to get really firm and fast in the Arizona desert. Statistically, the greens at TPC Scottsdale have qualified as “firm” and “fast” in every round but two since 2015.

High-end target: Tony Finau – $10,100 (16th Strokes Gained: Putting Firm and Fast)
Mid-range target: Sam Burns – $8,600 (8th Strokes Gained: Putting Firm and Fast)
Value target: Alex Noren – $7,600 (7th Strokes Gained: Putting Firm and Fast)

Greens in Regulation Gained

Statistics from previous years at TPC Scottsdale show that Greens in Regulation Gained at the course is much more indicative of the winner at this tournament than the TOUR average. With many bunkers and firm, dry areas around the greens, missing the putting surface can be consequential.

High-end target: Tony Finau – $10,100 (3rd GIR Gained)
Mid-range target: Collin Morikawa – $9,700 (1st GIR Gained)
Value target: J.J. Spaun – $7,300 (5th GIR Gained)

Opportunities Gained

I am looking for golfers who will get a lot of birdie looks this week. With the winner in the high teens to low twenties under par on average, birdies will be a requirement.

High-end target: Rory McIlroy – $10,700 (6th Opportunities Gained)
Mid-range target: Tom Kim – $9,100 (4th Opportunities Gained)
Value target: Brendan Steele – $7,200 (8th Opportunities Gained)

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