NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Wednesday, Feb. 1): Load up on the Kings

Wednesday features an eight-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

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NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Wednesday’s matchup between the Kings and Spurs should be a fantasy goldmine. Neither of these teams play a lick of defense – Sacramento ranks 21st in defensive efficiency, San Antonio ranks dead last – and both teams rank in the top seven in pace. Unsurprisingly, this game leads the slate with a 244.0-point total, while the Kings’ implied team total of 125.75 ranks first by a wide margin.

De’Aaron Fox should be one of the primary sources of fantasy points for the Kings. He’s been on a solid run recently, scoring at least 45.25 DraftKings points in five of his past seven games, and he’s averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute for the year. There’s no reason he should be priced at just $8,200 in such an elite matchup.

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Value

Jaylen Nowell got off to a fast start this season, and while he’s cooled down a bit of late, he’s still averaged a respectable 0.87 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. That’s an excellent figure for someone who is priced at just $3,300.

Nowell isn’t going to see a ton of playing time most nights, but he has logged at least 18.0 minutes in three straight games. There’s a chance he could see a few additional minutes vs. the Warriors, who have played at the fastest pace in the league this season.

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Fast Break

Chris Paul is going to have to continue to do some heavy lifting for the shorthanded Suns. They’re still playing without Devin Booker, Cam Payne, and Landry Shamet, and CP3 has increased his usage rate by +2.7% and his assist rate by +0.8% with all three players off the floor this season. Paul has responded with a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games, and he displayed a ceiling of 63.75 DraftKings points two games ago vs. the Spurs. The Hawks rank eighth in pace and 20th in defensive efficiency, so this is another good spot to target the veteran point guard.

Tre Jones stands out on FanDuel, where his $5,800 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 74%. His minutes haven’t been quite as consistent recently, but he’s coming off 30.6 minutes in his last outing. He’s currently projected for 29.0 minutes in our NBA Models, and he has a good chance to return value if he sees that much playing time vs. the Kings. He’s averaged 1.01 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Shooting guard is probably the weakest position on Wednesday’s slate from a stud perspective. However, there are a few point guards with additional shooting guard eligibility on FanDuel, which makes the offerings on that site a bit more robust.

D’Angelo Russell is one of those options, and his $7,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%. Russell was a major bust in his last outing, finishing with just 23.3 FanDuel points in 40.2 minutes, but he had posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his prior six games. His price tag has decreased slightly for Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Warriors, making him a solid bounce-back candidate.

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Value

The Rockets are going to be without Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green once again on Wednesday, leaving Eric Gordon as the team’s top backcourt option. He was fantastic in that role on Saturday, finishing with 36.5 FanDuel points in 33.6 minutes, and he has thrived with both players off the floor this season. He’s increased his usage rate by +9.4% and his assist rate by +12.3% in that scenario, resulting in an average of 0.93 FanDuel points per minute.

That makes Gordon an absolute steal at just $5,000 vs. the Thunder. Both of these teams have played fast this season, and the total on this contest sits at 232.5 points.

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Fast Break

If you’re looking for a pure punt play on DraftKings, you could do worse than Doug McDermott. He’s currently projected for 21 minutes at the absolute minimum, and McDermott has averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.30 with a comparable salary and minute projection (per the Trends tool).

Seth Curry wasn’t really needed in the Nets’ last game, and he was limited to just 21.8 minutes in a blowout win. However, he’s displayed an increased ceiling with Kevin Durant out of the lineup. He erupted for 42.5 DraftKings points three games ago, and he’s capable of filling it up from deep. If he gets rolling with his shot on Wednesday, he can go off for a big number vs. the Celtics.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Paolo Banchero has had an up-and-down rookie season, but he’s flashed plenty of promise. He put his skill set on display on Monday, dropping 29 points with nine rebounds and three assists in an upset win over the 76ers. He ultimately finished with 49.25 DraftKings points, and he’ll draw the same opponent on Wednesday.

I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance, but Banchero is capable of returning value at this price tag. He’s averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute this season, and his salary has decreased by -$1,300 over the past month. He’s a nice buy-low target on Wednesday’s slate.

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Value

Josh Hart has been in and out of the lineup for the Blazers recently. However, in the past two games where he’s played his usual allotment of minutes, he’s racked up 33.5 and 41.5 DraftKings points. Hart is one of the best rebounding guards in basketball – he’s averaged 8.2 rebounds per game this season – and he’s capable of chipping in as a scorer and distributor as well. He has a chance for a cheap double-double at $5,100 on DraftKings, which is not something you can typically find at the SF position.

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Fast Break

Mikal Bridges is another member of the Suns who has been asked to do a bit more than usual of late. His usage rate has increased to 21.6% in 13 games without Booker, Shamet, and Payne, which represents a boost of +2.4%. He’s posted a usage rate of 23.3% or higher in six of his past eight games, so he’s been even more active recently. When his shot is falling, he’s capable of delivering excellent value for his price tag, evidenced by his 50.25 DraftKings points in his last outing.

It’s impossible to know what the Thunder’s starting lineup will look like on a night-to-night basis, but Kenrich Williams has played really well recently. He’s averaged 0.96 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s scored at least 26.6 FanDuel points in four of his past six games. That gives him plenty of appeal against the Rockets, who rank 28th in defensive efficiency.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

The Jazz have been a nice surprise this season, largely due to the play of Lauri Markkanen. The former No. 7 overall pick struggled to establish himself in Chicago and Cleveland, but he has flourished as the centerpiece of the Jazz’s offense. He’s averaged a career-best 24.9 points per game while shooting 52.0% from the field and 43.2% from 3-point range.

Markkanen has also delivered the goods from a fantasy perspective, particularly of late. He’s increased his production to 1.32 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which trails only Jayson Tatum among Wednesday’s forwards.

Markkanen has also seen a significant price reduction over the past few weeks. He was priced as high as $9,700, but he’s down to just $8,400 for Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Raptors. This is a nice time to buy low on the talented big man.

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Value

Harrison Barnes is not the sexiest DFS option, and he’s failed to return value in each of his past three games. However, it hasn’t been due to a lack of playing time. The veteran forward has played all the minutes he can handle recently, including 40.6 minutes in his last contest. That’s not an outlier: Barnes has played at least 36 minutes in seven of his past nine games.

Barnes has averaged 0.80 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he should be looking at better production moving forward. Add in a juicy matchup vs. the Spurs, and Barnes stands out as one of the better values on the slate.

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Fast Break

Domantas Sabonis is the Kings’ other superstar, and like Fox, he’s clearly in play on this slate. He’s particularly appealing on FanDuel, where his $9,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%. Sabonis hasn’t played particularly well of late, but that’s caused his salary to dip by nearly -$1,000 over the past month. This seems like the perfect spot for him to break out of his slump.

Chris Boucher has seen a slight uptick in minutes for the Raptors recently. He’s coming off 24.5 minutes in his last outing, and Boucher is capable of doing damage quickly. He’s averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he’s always appealing when he’s expected to see the floor. Boucher makes the most sense on DraftKings, where his $3,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

You can go with a few different options at center on Wednesday, but Alperen Sengun stands out as one of the best. The big man has flourished in his second year in the league, particularly since KPJ went down with a foot injury. He’s racked up at least 54.0 DraftKings points in four of his past six games, and he played reduced minutes in a blowout in one of the two exceptions. That means he’s basically produced like a $10,000 center for the better part of two weeks.

With Green joining KPJ on the sidelines, Sengun has even more upside than usual. Sengun has increased his usage rate (+1.9%), assist rate (+2.8%), and rebound rate (+1.2%) with both players off the floor this season, so he has the potential to improve upon his already elite per-minute production.

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Value

Precious Achiuwa’s price tag is up to $5,700 on Wednesday, but it’s hard to argue against it. He has absolutely thrived since the injury to OG Anunoby. Achiuwa has logged at least 33.4 minutes in three straight games, and he’s responded with at least 32.5 DraftKings points in each contest. That includes 50.25 DraftKings points against the Blazers two games ago.

He should be able to deliver another strong value performance vs. the Jazz. They’ve struggled against opposing big men all season, allowing the most DKFP per game to opposing centers. They rank 27th in the league in points in the paint allowed per game, so Achiuwa should be able to cruise to another double-double in this spot.

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Fast Break

Deandre Ayton has been an excellent source of value for the Suns recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games. He has two games with at least 49.5 DraftKings points during that stretch, including one game with a 40.8% usage rate. Overall, he has far more offensive upside than usual while the Suns are shorthanded.

Rudy Gobert is questionable for what seems like the 100th straight game, but he will likely be in the starting lineup vs. the Warriors. Gobert’s consistent questionable tags have kept his ownership very reasonable, and he stands out as one of the better per-dollar options at the position on DraftKings. Gobert has also found plenty of success against the Warriors, averaging 14.3 points and 17.7 rebounds in that matchup over the past three seasons.