NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Monday, Jan 23): Alperen Sengun is a Fantasy Superstar

Monday features a seven-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use the PrizePicks promo code LABS to get a $100 sign-up bonus for NBA player props.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Ja Morant has not been a particularly strong DFS option of late. He’s failed to return value in eight straight games, which has caused his price tag to dip to just $9,700 for Monday’s matchup vs. the Kings. That makes him a tremendous buy-low option. The Kings have been one of the best matchups in fantasy this season, ranking fifth in pace and 25th in defensive efficiency. This game leads the slate with a total of 246.5 points, and the Grizzlies’ implied team total of 124.0 ranks fourth.

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Value

Mike Conley has been an outstanding source of fantasy value of late. He’s scored at least 30.25 DraftKings points in four straight games, including 40.0 DraftKings points in 28.7 minutes two games ago vs. the Clippers. Conley has increased his production to 0.97 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he should be expected to play around 30 minutes on Monday.

That makes him a phenomenal option in an elite matchup vs. the Hornets. Charlotte ranks seventh in pace and 27th in defensive efficiency, and they’ve allowed the fourth-most DKFP per game to opposing point guards. The Jazz’s implied team total of 124.25 ranks third on the slate, and Conley should be a big part of their offense.

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Fast Break

Trae Young is another player who has seen a price drop recently. He’s been priced as high as $10,200 over the past month, so $9,500 represents a significant decrease. Young has still averaged 1.32 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he continues to post a sky-high usage rate. He’s had a usage rate of at least 36.5% in three of his past four games, and this matchup vs. the Bulls should feature plenty of points.

If you’re looking for a pure punt play at the position, you could do a lot worse than Payton Pritchard. The Celtics are dealing with two key absences in their backcourt, with Marcus Smart and Malcolm Brogdon both out for Monday’s matchup vs. the Magic. That should open up a few additional minutes for Pritchard. He’s currently projected for more than 23 minutes in our NBA Models, and Pritchard has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.18 with a comparable salary and minute projection (per the Trends tool).

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

DeMar DeRozan has shooting guard eligibility on FanDuel, and you should 100% consider using him in this spot. He’s priced at a laughable $8,000, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%, and he leads all players with 15 Pro Trends. DeRozan has absolutely dominated with a comparable price tag this season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.60.

DeRozan also benefits from a solid matchup vs. the Hawks. Atlanta has played at the eighth-fastest pace this season, and they’re also below-average in defensive efficiency. The Bulls are currently implied for 120.75 points, so they have plenty of offensive upside in this spot.

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Value

Derrick White is another strong value option to consider for the Celtics. He’s more expensive than Pritchard, but his minutes are a lot more secure. He’s projected for 34.2 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. White has also increased his usage rate by +1.5% and his assist rate by +6.4% with Smart and Brogdon off the floor, so he’s a great bet to return value vs. the Magic.

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Fast Break

Malik Monk has been priced down to $4,000 on DraftKings, and he’s one of the best per-minute producers in this price range. He’s averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute in his first year with the Kings, but his playing time is a bit volatile. However, he’s a good bet to see around 20 minutes, and he should be able to return value with that much playing time. Anything more than that is just gravy.

Collin Sexton has taken over as the Jazz’s sixth man, and he has provided solid value in that role recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games on DraftKings, and he saw 29.1 minutes in his last contest. Sexton has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he can do plenty of damage with around 28 minutes.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Anthony Edwards has taken over as the Timberwolves’ unquestioned top offensive option since Karl-Anthony Towns went down with an injury, and he has thrived in that role. He erupted against the Rockets on Saturday, finishing with 44 points, six boards, four assists, three steals, and three blocks, resulting in 71.0 DraftKings points.

Edwards draws the same elite matchup on Monday, with Houston ranking 28th in defensive efficiency for the year. Edwards is a particularly strong option on FanDuel, where his $8,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.

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Value

Kenyon Martin Jr. should see a nice boost in value given the Rockets’ current injury situation. Kevin Porter Jr. remains out of the lineup, while Jabari Smith Jr. is questionable. Martin has averaged just under 31 minutes per game in six contests without KPJ this season, resulting in 25.67 DraftKings points per game. That makes him a solid value regardless of what happens with Smith.

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Fast Break

Malik Beasley is another potential option for the Jazz on Monday. He’s seen plenty of minutes recently, but he hasn’t been able to return much fantasy value. That said, he’s been mired in a deep shooting slump. He’s shot just 31.9% from the field over his past eight games, so he’s due for some positive regression.

Jaylen Brown has been underpriced on FanDuel for most of the season, and Monday’s slate is no exception. His $8,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%, and he’s another player who should see a boost with Smart and Brogdon out of the lineup. He’s increased his production to 1.29 FanDuel points per minute with both players off the floor, which represents a nice increase from his season-long average of 1.18.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Jayson Tatum has been an excellent fantasy producer of late, averaging 1.53 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s coming off back-to-back monster performances, scoring at least 71.25 DraftKings points against the Hornets and Warriors. He got the night off in the Celtics’ last contest, so he should be ready to return to a massive workload on Monday.

Tatum is a prodigious scorer, and he should see a boost in peripherals with Smart and Brogdon out of the picture. He’s increased his assist rate by +5.2% and his rebound rate by +2.2% with both players off the floor this season, giving him slightly more upside than usual.

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Value

Keegan Murray has had a solid rookie year for the Kings, and he’s returned positive value in nine of his past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s increased his production to 0.81 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and his minutes are trending in the right direction. He’s played at least 36.8 minutes in three straight games, including 41.4 minutes in his last contest. If he’s going to continue to see that much playing time, $4,400 is an absolute bargain. The Grizzlies are a tough matchup defensively, but they’ve also played at the sixth-fastest pace this season. Overall, it’s a great spot to target the No. 4 pick from the 2022 NBA Draft.

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Fast Break

Lauri Markkanen is another excellent value on FanDuel. His $8,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%, while his 11 Pro Trends are tied for the second most at the position. He’s been on a roll recently, increasing his production to 1.32 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so he has plenty of appeal against the Hornets.

Bojan Bogdanovic is another player who has seen a boost in value recently, averaging 1.07 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games, and he’s not expected to command a ton of ownership at $6,400.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

The Rockets’ recent injuries have allowed Alperen Sengun to really spread his wings. He’s been an outstanding per-minute producer ever since stepping on an NBA court, but he’s taken things to another level recently. He’s racked up at least 37.1 minutes in three straight games, and he’s responded with at least 54.0 DraftKings points in each.

Sengun has served as more of a distributor with KPJ sidelined this season, increasing his assist rate by +7.3% in six games. It results in an average of 1.37 DraftKings points per minute, so Sengun is basically producing like a $10,000 center in that scenario.

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Value

Jalen Duren returned to the Pistons’ lineup in their Paris game vs. the Bulls on Thursday, and he was extremely productive in his limited playing time. He racked up 11 points and 12 boards in just 18.2 minutes, and Duren has been an absolute beast on the boards in his rookie season. He leads the team with a 19.6% rebound rate this season, and that number has been even higher as a member of the starting unit.

Duren has a good chance to move back into the starting lineup and pick up a few additional minutes on Monday. Isaiah Stewart has been ruled out with a shoulder injury, and Marvin Bagley is also sidelined with a long-term injury. That doesn’t leave the team with much depth behind Duren at center, so he could easily approach 30 minutes in this spot. Overall, he stands out as one of the best values on the entire slate.

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Fast Break

Walker Kessler finally disappointed in his last game, finishing with just 13.5 DraftKings points in 24.6 minutes. It snapped a string of six straight games with a positive Plus/Minus, including at least 37.0 DraftKings points in his previous four games. He remains extremely affordable on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 99%, so he’s an excellent bounce-back candidate.

Nikola Vucevic is worth some consideration on FanDuel, where his $8,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%. He leads all centers with 14 Pro Trends, and his matchup vs. the Hawks comes with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.42. They’ve been crushed on the interior all season, so Vucevic has a strong ceiling as well.