NFL DFS Wild Card Round Monday Picks Breakdown: Return of Playoff Lenny?

Super Wild Card Weekend wraps up with a matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Cowboys are listed as 2.5-point road favorites, while the total sits at 45.5 points.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

These two teams enter the postseason heading in opposite directions. The Cowboys laid a massive egg in their final game of the regular season, losing 26-6 to the Commanders despite playing their starters for essentially the full game. Meanwhile, the Bucs’ offense has looked as good as it has all season over the past two weeks. With that in mind, it’s not surprising that the Cowboys have dipped to just 2.5-point favorites in this matchup, especially since the Bucs won 19-3 when these teams met earlier this season.

CeeDee Lamb is the most expensive option on DraftKings, and he’s been a legit alpha receiver this season. He finished with career highs in virtually every category across the board, including receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns. He was rewarded with his second straight trip to the Pro Bowl and a second-team All-Pro nod.

Lamb has taken on one of the largest workloads at the receiver position in his first year without Amari Cooper. His 28.7% target share was the seventh-highest mark in the league, and he also led the team with 34.9% of their air yards. He’s provided plenty of fantasy value as well, posting a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past seven games. He racked up at least 20.4 DraftKings points in all five contests, and he finished with 16.2 DraftKings points in a sixth. That gives him a nice combination of floor and ceiling.

The Buccaneers are ultimately a pretty middling matchup. They rank 15th in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA, and they were 15th against No. 1 receivers. Lamb doesn’t stand out as an elite target in THE BLITZ, but he’s definitely reasonable at his current price tag.