Super Wild Card Weekend continues on Sunday with a three-game slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud
Josh Allen headlines Sunday’s three-game slate, just like he does basically every time he takes the field. He combines rushing and passing upside better than arguably any quarterback in fantasy, and his average of 24.3 fantasy points per game ranked third at the position. That number would’ve been higher if not for a relatively pedestrian end to the year, posting a negative Plus/Minus in six of his final eight games.
Expect Allen to turn things up during the postseason. He was absolutely phenomenal in his two playoff games last season. He started with 305 passing yards, 66 rushing yards, and five touchdown passes in the team’s 47-17 demolition of the Patriots, and he followed that up with 329 passing yards, 68 rushing yards, and four touchdown passes vs. the Chiefs.
Allen gets his 2022 playoff campaign started with an exploitable matchup vs. the Dolphins. They finished the year 25th in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA, and Allen racked up 39.86 DraftKings points in his final matchup vs. the Dolphins.
The only real concern is that the Bills are favored by 13.5 points. Allen hasn’t historically been at his best as a big favorite, posting a Plus/Minus of just +1.43 when favored by double-digits. When Allen has been favored by less than 10 points, he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.06 (per the Trends tool).
There’s definitely a bit of blowout risk, but the only way the Bills are pulling away from the Dolphins is behind a big start from their stud quarterback.
Value
Allen leads the way in terms of raw projections, but Daniel Jones stands out from a value perspective. He leads Sunday’s signal callers in projected Plus/Minus per THE BLITZ, and he stands out as one of the best pure values at the position on DraftKings. He’s significantly cheaper than Allen at just $5,600, and he leads all passers with a 69% Bargain Rating.
Jones benefits from one of the best possible matchups vs. the Vikings. Their defense has been exploitable all year, and they rank just 26th in pass defense DVOA. That’s the second-worst mark among the 14 playoff teams, with only the Jaguars being worse against the pass during the regular season.
Jones displayed much more upside than usual in his matchup vs. the Vikings in Week 16. He racked up 334 passing yards, which was his second-highest output of the year. Jones averaged just over 200 passing yards per game this season, so Jones was far more productive than usual.
Even if Jones can’t duplicate that performance, he should provide some value with his legs. “Vanilla Vick” had the best season of his career as a runner, averaging 44.3 yards per game with seven touchdowns. He had just five touchdowns in his first three seasons combined, so his increased aggression as a runner has been a wonderful development for his fantasy value.
Quick Hits
The game between the Giants and Vikings stands out as the clear top target on Sunday’s slate. Not only does it feature the highest total at 48.5 points, but it also features the lowest spread. Both of the other games have a favorite of at least 8.5 points, and the best fantasy contests tend to feature production from both sides. This game is the most likely candidate for that.
That makes Kirk Cousins a strong option for the Vikings. Cousins turned in another prototypical Cousins season, finishing 11th at the position in fantasy points per game. He had 24.16 DraftKings points in his first game vs. the Giants this season, and he was just one yard shy of the 300-yard bonus on DraftKings. The Giants are another team that has struggled defensively this season, ranking 22nd in pass defense DVOA, so Cousins has a chance for another strong outing.
Joe Burrow is the other top quarterback on this slate, but his matchup vs. the Ravens scares me. The Ravens have done a good job of containing Burrow in their first two matchups this season, limiting him to 12.6 and 18.28 DraftKings points. He’s a slightly more appealing option on FanDuel, where he leads the position with a 73% Bargain Rating, but he has plenty of fade appeal on both sites.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Stud
Saquon Barkley got to sit out the final game of the regular season, and it was a well-deserved break. Barkley bounced back in a big way in 2022-23, racking up 352 touches in his 16 games. That was the third-highest mark in the league, and it was more than he had in the previous two seasons combined. Barkley responded with a career-best 1,312 rushing yards, and he added 338 yards in the passing game. That’s not quite the type of receiving production we saw from Barkley in his prime, but it still makes him a threat in all facets of the game.
Barkley’s only real competition for touches in the backfield is Jones. No other running back had more than 74 touches last season, and that number is slightly inflated by Barkley sitting out last week. Ultimately, expect him to be on the field for the vast majority of the team’s snaps on Sunday.
The Vikings haven’t been quite as bad against the run as they have been against the pass, but it’s still an excellent matchup. Barkley owns the top Opponent Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings, and he averaged 6.0 yards per carry and racked up 27.3 DraftKings points in his first matchup vs. the Vikings this season. He had fewer carries than usual in that contest, so he has the potential for an even larger performance in the playoffs.
Value
We don’t often get injury value in the postseason, but that will be the case on Sunday. The Dolphins lost running back Raheem Mostert to a thumb injury, which opens the door for Jeff Wilson Jr. to handle most of the opportunities vs. the Bills. Wilson was already starting to carve out a role as the team’s top runner – he led the team in carries in each of their final three games – but Mostert had 35% of the team’s opportunities in Week 18. It’s likely that those will find their way to Wilson vs. the Bills.
The big question is how much will the Dolphins be able to run the ball? It goes without saying that targeting an underdog of nearly two touchdowns is not typically advised at running back. If the Bills are able to establish a big lead, Wilson could spend most of the game on the sidelines.
Still, he should get plenty of work in the early stages of the game, and a blowout could help him from a pass-catching perspective. Wilson has recently been the team’s preferred pass-catcher out of the backfield as well, so the Dolphins falling behind could actually help his fantasy prospects.
Quick Hits
Unlike the Vikings, the Giants’ defense has been worse against the run than the pass. In fact, they rank dead last in terms of rush defense DVOA. That’s a positive for Dalvin Cook, who has had a quiet year by his standards. The team has employed a pass-heavy strategy for most of the year – they rank sixth in pass rate over expectation – so Cook hasn’t had as many opportunities as usual. That could change in this matchup.
Joe Mixon has seen a reduction in value since returning to the lineup, with Samaje Perine carving out a larger role for himself in the Bengals’ offense. However, Mixon has seen an uptick in pass-catching opportunities, racking up 20 targets in his past three games. His upside isn’t quite as high as it was early in the year, but he’s priced very fairly at $6,800 on DraftKings.
Both of the Bills’ top running backs are in play as massive favorites. Devin Singletary has been their top option all year, but James Cook actually led the backfield in snaps and carries in Week 18. I’m not sure if that represents a changing of the guard or just a one-week aberration, but getting exposure to both is probably advised. Singletary stands out as the better option on FanDuel, while Cook is a slightly better value on DraftKings.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stud
Justin Jefferson has been one of the top receivers in fantasy all season. He led all pass-catchers with an average of 21.7 PPR points per game, finishing with a league-high 128 catches and 1,809 receiving yards. He added nine touchdowns, and he also led the year in yards-per-touch for the second consecutive season. Ultimately, one of the most dangerous players in the league is only getting better, which is not surprising for someone just 23 years old.
Jefferson always has the potential for a big game, and that’s particularly true against the Giants. The Giants’ defense has gotten a bit healthier in recent weeks, but they’re still missing one of their best cornerbacks in Aaron Robinson. Pro Football Focus credits him with the second-biggest matchup advantage of the week, and Jefferson torched the Giants for 12 catches, 133 yards, and a touchdown during the regular season.
Value
On the other side of that matchup, the Giants’ receiving corps should provide significant value on DraftKings. Their top three options are all popping as strong values in THE BLITZ, with Darius Slayton, Richie James, and Isaiah Hodgins all owning Bargain Ratings of at least 82%.
You can make a solid case for all three players as the Giants’ top target. Slayton routinely leads the team in routes, and he’s also the team’s top deep threat. He has 29% of the team’s air yards for the year, while Hodgins and James are at 12 and 15%, respectively.
Hodgins has rivaled Slayton in terms of routes recently, posting a route participation of at least 94% in three straight weeks. He’s also had the edge on slate in terms of targets over that stretch, and he’s been the team’s preferred option around the goal line. He has a touchdown in four of his past five games, and he’s scored at least 14.2 DraftKings points in each.
James isn’t on the field quite as much, but that hasn’t stopped him from leading the team in targets. He had a 30% target share in their last contest, and he also racked up 38% of the team’s air yards. James is also the cheapest of the trio on DraftKings, and he owns the top mark in terms of projected Plus/Minus.
Ultimately, using two or even all three of these players is possible, but you probably want to consider Jones at quarterback if you go that route.
Quick Hits
Demarcus Robinson is another potential source of value on DraftKings. His $3,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%, and he’s established himself as the Ravens’ top receiver of late. That’s not a high bar to clear, but Robinson has at least six targets in four of his past six games. That gives him a pretty reasonable floor for his price tag.
Ja’Marr Chase has been an absolute monster since returning to the lineup. He’s racked up at least 11 targets in four straight games, and he has at least 13 in three of them. He’s racked up 32.7% of the team’s targets and 44.6% of their air yards over that stretch, so he’s started to separate from Tee Higgins in the team’s pecking order. Chase owns a Bargain Rating of 89% on FanDuel, and he should command significantly lower ownership than Jefferson.
The Bills’ receivers are obviously in play as well. Stefon Diggs has been the team’s unquestioned top receiver all season, racking up 27.6% of their targets and 34.3% of their air yards. However, Gabe Davis has plenty of GPP appeal given his big play ability. He’s slightly behind Diggs in terms of air yards (30.5%), and he averaged 17.4 yards per reception this season. We also know he’s capable of a monster performance during the playoffs, with Davis going off for four touchdowns last year vs. the Chiefs.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Stud
T.J. Hockenson was a midseason acquisition for the Vikings, and he has been a huge part of their offense ever since arriving. He racked up a 23.5% target share from Weeks 9 through 17, and he’s been targeted on 26.4% of his routes run. That’s just slightly lower than Jefferson’s mark of 28.4%.
Hockenson had his best game of the season in his first meeting with the Giants, racking up 16 targets, 13 catches, 109 yards, and two touchdowns. He could be a big part of the team’s gameplan once again on Sunday. The Giants have struggled mightily against tight ends all season, ranking 31st in DVOA vs. the position.
One thing to note is that Irv Smith Jr. did return to the lineup in Week 18. It was his first game back since the team acquired Hockenson, and both players saw a roughly 50% snap share. However, that was essentially a meaningless game for the Vikings. I fully expect Hockenson to resume his role as the team’s alpha tight end vs. the Giants.
Value
The value for the Giants doesn’t stop at receiver. Daniel Bellinger stands out as the best option at tight end if you’re paying down at the position. Bellinger hasn’t had a huge role for the Giants this season, but he is on the field a lot. He has a route participation of at least 94% in each of his past three games, and that is a rarity for the tight end position. He doesn’t bring much to the table in terms of ceiling, but he should see a handful of targets at a cheap price tag.
Quick Hits
Mark Andrews is the other stud tight end on this slate. The Ravens’ passing attack is a major question mark at this point, but Tyler Huntley should start after logging a full practice on Friday. There’s no guarantee he’s effective, but he typically loves to target Andrews in the passing game. He posted a whopping 45% target share in his last contest, so he definitely has upside.
Dawson Knox plays with Allen, and that’s enough to be viable at the weakest position in fantasy. Knox racked up six touchdowns this season, and he came on strong down the stretch. He scored a touchdown in his final four contests, and he posted a positive Plus/Minus in each.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
Daily Fantasy Football NFL DFS Picks: Landon’s Locks for Week 9
NFL DFS Showdown: Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle in Commanders-Eagles
NFL Player Props: Devin Singletary, Dalton Schultz, and Rhamondre Stevenson Picks on Thanksgiving Day
Week 13 NFL DFS Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings and FanDuel
