Wild Card Round NFL DFS Showdown: Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle in Cowboys-Buccaneers

Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 lineups in each contest.

This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on this game into lineups.

Additionally, this piece focuses on DraftKings Showdown contests, but similar strategies are useful on FanDuel.

For my general Showdown strategy, you can read my Showdown primer.

My Favorite NFL DFS Angle in Cowboys vs. Buccaneers Showdown

It feels a little uncomfortable, but I think the best GPP play of the slate is actually pretty obvious. Despite being the big play threat for a team projected to throw the ball at least 40 times on Monday, I expect Mike Evans to be significantly less owned than fellow expensive receivers CeeDee Lamb and Chris Godwin.

Despite a long stretch of really lousy results, Evans ended the year with a bang in week 17, posting 51.7 DK points. Normally I would expect some recency bias so close to such a big performance, but I really think the combination of projection and players being burned by him all season will keep ownership down significantly.

Keep an eye on ownership projections once they come out, but if they reflect my prediction, then Evans is a great tournament play despite being uncomfortable to click on.

Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider

General

• Max 3 players vs. opposing Defense
• Minimum 90% Salary

Player Correlations

• Pair Captain Tom Brady with at least two Bucs pass-catchers. I would even consider making an “at least 3” rule for some lineups and include the running backs.
• Pair Captain Dak Prescott with at least two Cowboys pass-catchers
• Pair Captain pass-catchers with at most one other pass-catcher from the same team
• Decrease Ezekiel Elliott by 10% in lineups with Tony Pollard Captain
• Decrease Rachaad White by 5% in lineups with Leonard Fournette Captain

Player Groups

• Max two kickers and defenses.
• Max 1 Russell Gage and Julio Jones
• Max 1 Noah Brown and TY Hilton

Captain Pool (from highest to lowest priority)

Primary Targets

• CeeDee Lamb
• Mike Evans
• Chris Godwin
• Tony Pollard

Secondary Targets 

• Dalton Schultz
• Dak Prescott
• Tom Brady
• Leonard Fournette
• Ezekiel Elliot

Large-Field GPP Fliers

• Rachaad White
• Michael Gallup