NFL DFS Showdown: Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle in Bills-Bengals

Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 lineups in each contest.

This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on this game into lineups.

Additionally, this piece focuses on DraftKings Showdown contests, but similar strategies are useful on FanDuel.

For my general Showdown strategy, you can read my Showdown primer.

My Favorite NFL DFS Angle in Bills vs. Bengals Showdown

What an electric Monday Night Football matchup to end the holiday weekend. This projects as a high-paced shoot-out with both QBs likely to drop back nearly 40 times. With this sort of pass-volume expected, I want to look for an under-owned piece that could benefit from the game environment. Gabe Davis looks like that guy to me.

Despite disappointing box scores, which I expect to keep ownership way down, he still accounts for nearly 30% of the team’s air yards. These sorts of boom-or-bust players are great for the showdown format when under-owned, as they possess the ability to break the slate. Further helping his outlook is the Bengals propensity to get beat by opposing number 2 wide receivers. Admittedly a niche stat, the Bengals happen to be 29th by DVOA against opposing WR2s. It is still too early to know exactly where ownership will fall, but I will be looking to get over the field.

Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider

General

• Max 3 players vs. opposing Defense
• Minimum 90% Salary

Player Correlations

• Pair Captain Josh Allen with at least one (but preferably two) Bills pass-catchers
• Pair Captain Joe Burrow with at least two Bengals pass-catchers
• Pair Captain pass-catchers with at most one other pass-catcher from the same team

Player Groups

• Max two kickers and defenses.
• Max 1 Isaiah McKenzie and Khalil Shakir
• Max 1 Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon
• Max 1 Bills RB

Captain Pool (from highest to lowest priority)

Primary Targets

• Ja’Marr Chase
• Stefon Diggs
• Josh Allen

Secondary Targets 

• Gabe Davis
• Joe Burrow
• Tee Higgins
• Joe Mixon

Large-Field GPP Fliers

• Tyler Boyd
• Dawson Knox
• Devin Singletary