At FantasyLabs, we eat, breathe, and sleep football. So from September to February, we’re breaking down all facets of the game, looking for in-roads to the DFS and betting spaces. As part of our commitment to delivering outstanding football coverage, we’re monitoring player usage against fantasy impact to see which players are trending up and down.
Here we are, two weeks from the end of the regular season, and only a handful of the playoff spots have been spoken for. That means virtually every game in Week 17 will have some sort of playoff implications. Further, this is our last week of Thursday and Monday night football, leaving DFS players with just a few slates before the postseason.
As usual, we’re reconciling usage trends with actual fantasy output to see which superstars are trending up and which are regression candidates as we prepare for next week’s action.
NFL DFS Player Usage Trends
Isiah Pacheco (RB, Kansas City Chiefs) – Week 16 Snap Count 26/53 (49.1%)
Until Week 10, the Kansas City Chiefs didn’t have a lead running back. Instead, the AFC leaders deferred to their passing attack, deploying a committee of ball carriers in the run game. Although their commitment to aerial assault is unwavering, Isiah Pacheco has emerged as the preferred option out of the backfield.
With most of his production coming over the past seven weeks, Pacheco leads the Chiefs in carries and rushing yards. More impressively, he’s more than doubled the next closest players, with Pacheco’s 153 carries dwarfing Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s 71 touches and his 735 yards easily surpassing Patrick Mahomes’s 321 yards on the ground.
The increased productivity has come despite a moderate workload. Pacheco has played fewer than 57.0% of snaps in every game this season, including just 26 of 53 offensive plays against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 16. Still, Andy Reid is prioritizing Pacheco when he’s on the field, giving him 14 carries on Sunday. That’s on par with his usage over the past seven weeks, with Pacheco carrying the ball on 109 of the 207 snaps he’s been on the field for.
With Mahomes under center, there’s little chance the Chiefs will increase their running game play calling. Nevertheless, Pacheco has hit double-digit carries in seven straight weeks and is the top option out of the Chiefs’ backfield. However, with the resurgence of Jerrick McKinnon and the Chiefs’ propensity to throw inside the red zone, Pacheco makes for a better floor play than a ceiling play.
Tyler Allgeier (RB, Atlanta Falcons) – Week 16 Snap Count 42/71 (59.2%)
It’s tough to establish the run when you’re constantly playing from behind, but that hasn’t limited Tyler Allgeier over the past couple of weeks. Since Week 15, the Atlanta Falcons running back has totaled 253 yards on 35 carries and five receptions, highlighting his status as a preeminent contributor.
Allgeier’s fantasy ceiling has been amplified by the Falcons turning to rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder. Prior to Week 14, Allgeier didn’t record more than 16 carries. In the two games with Ridder under center, Allgeier has carried the ball at least 17 times in both contests.
The Falcons running back has responded well to the increased workload, posting two of his top three fantasy performances of the season. Even though his usage has remained constant, playing between 49% and 60% over his past couple of games, Allgeier is seeing a more concentrated workload, positively affecting his output.
The Falcons call the second-most running plays in the NFL, carrying the ball 55.5% of the time. Allgeier has gotten the lion’s share of looks over the past couple of weeks, earning a more substantive role in the offense with his performances.
We anticipate that trend continuing against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 17.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR, Kansas City Chiefs) – Week 16 Snap Count 44/53 (83.0%)
JuJu Smith-Schuster has improved his standing in the latter part of the campaign. The former Pro Bowler has played at least 80% of snaps over the past few weeks, including 83% against the Seahawks in Week 16. That increased usage correlates with more targets, making Smith-Schuster a buy-low candidate over the last couple of weeks of the regular season.
Some of Smith-Schuster’s best games as a Chief have come over the past few weeks. The former second-round pick has been targeted 10 or more times in two of his last three games, grabbing 22-of-25 targets for an 88.0% catch rate. Further, his target share increased to 22.5% over the three-game sample after sitting around 15.0% through his first 11 games.
It’s also worth noting that Smith-Schuster’s upgraded play has come with Travis Kelce maintaining his stats. That suggests that Smith-Schuster is a sustainable play moving forward, as his improved play hasn’t come at the expense of Mahomes’s top receiver. Instead, it looks like Mahomes values Smith-Schuster as a 1B option to Kelce, with the wide receiver equaling or surpassing the tight end in targets in two of the past three.
Smith-Schuster is building chemistry with Mahomes late. Consequently, Smith-Schuster has a more robust fantasy ceiling, which is not yet reflected in his fantasy salary. That makes him a steal on this week’s slate and an x-factor that could push lineups to the top of the leaderboards against the Denver Broncos.
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