In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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Top NFL DFS Running Back Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are three running backs who rank near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Christian McCaffrey
- Derrick Henry
- Dalvin Cook
We’ll discuss why these three are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other running backs.
Top Model NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Christian McCaffrey ($8,800 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel): San Francisco 49ers (-7) vs. Washington Commanders (37.5 total)
Christian McCaffrey continues to capitalize on one of the best roles in the league in one of the top offenses. He parlayed 22 touches into 138 yards and a touchdown last week against Seattle. With Elijah Mitchell sidelined due to injury, McCaffrey has been a workhorse in the backfield.
Over the past two games with Mitchell inactive, McCaffrey has played on 66-of-67 first-half snaps. He’s now finished as a top-four RB on the week in all four games as a 49er with Mitchell inactive. McCaffrey’s passing game usage has stayed steady with Brock Purdy under center, as he has 21 targets in the past three weeks.
McCaffrey is faced with a tough matchup this week, as Washington is no slouch against running backs. They’ve given up the fourth-fewest DraftKings points to opposing running backs. Saquon Barkley did have a solid game against them last week, carrying the ball 18 times for 87 yards and a touchdown and catching five balls for 33 yards.
A combo back with a huge workload just put up a big game against Washington, and that’s exactly what McCaffrey is. He’s the type of player where the matchup doesn’t scare us, and that is exactly the case this week.
McCaffrey is the top running back in Chris Raybon’s Pro Model and our Cash Game Model.
Derrick Henry ($8,600 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel): Tennessee Titans (-3.5) vs. Houston Texans (35.5 total)
The biggest gripe with Derrick Henry from a fantasy perspective in years past has been his lack of passing game usage. It appears that Tennessee has heard our complaints because he now has eight games of at least three targets. He turned in a solid game last week, rushing 21 times for 104 yards and a touchdown while catching four balls for 59 yards and a touchdown.
If Tennessee can avoid falling behind, they tend to get Henry the ball 20-25 times. Henry has at least 20 touches in eleven games and has even reached 30 touches in four games. In two of the three games where he failed to reach 20 touches, the Titans were blown out, with a 41-7 loss to Buffalo and a 35-10 loss to Philadelphia.
The Titans are 3.5-point home favorites against Houston, who should really be trying to lose games in order to secure the number one overall pick. Henry torched the Texans when these teams last played, carrying the ball 32 times for 219 yards and two touchdowns. Henry has now rushed for 200+ yards in four straight games against the Texans.
Houston is allowing 5.07 yards per carry to opposing backs, and has allowed five different running backs to top 30 fantasy points. It’s pretty hard to poke any holes in Henry’s outlook this week.
He’s the top back in our Tournament Model.
Dalvin Cook ($7,200 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel): Minnesota Vikings (-4) vs. New York Giants (48 total)
Despite Minnesota falling behind massively against Indianapolis, Dalvin Cook was still able to handle 20 touches. He carried the ball 17 times for 95 yards while catching four of four targets for 95 yards and a touchdown. His 28.0 DraftKings points were his second-highest mark of the season.
Cook’s workload stays pretty steady each week. We can expect 17-20 carries and two to four targets on the ground. We just have to hope Cook is efficient with his targets and can hopefully find the end zone once or twice. He doesn’t have the potential of some other backs to catch six or more passes, so efficiency and touchdowns are extra important for Cook.
After a slate of some difficult opposing defenses, Cook now gets a tasty spot against the Giants. New York is allowing 5.37 yards per carry to opposing backs and a league-high 2.42 yards prior to contact on running back carries. We saw Brian Robinson average 7.4 yards per carry on 12 carries last week against this Giants defense.
Cook leads the position in Projected Plus/Minus and is second in Points/Salary.
He’s the top back in Sean Koerner’s Pro Model.
Other Notable NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Rhamondre Stevenson ($7,100 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel): New England Patriots (+3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (41.5 total)
There were questions on how extensive Stevenson’s workload would be last week since he was questionable with an ankle injury. He quickly answered those questions, carrying the ball 19 times for a career-high 172 yards and a touchdown. He did only handle 63.6% of the backfield touches, which was his lowest rate since Damien Harris was active back in Week 9.
Harris could potentially play this week, which would dock Stevenson’s outlook. It’s questionable how much they’d use him since he’s returning from a lengthy absence, and the other backs have performed pretty well. The matchup is stout, as the Bengals are allowing merely 3.97 yards per carry but have been more vulnerable to opposing backs through the air.
J.K Dobbins ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel): Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (35.5 total)
J.K. Dobbins has been efficient since returning from injury, rushing 15 times for 120 yards and a touchdown in Week 14 and then 13 times for 125 yards last week against Cleveland. He only handled 58.3% of the backfield touches, which is slightly worrisome going forward. If Dobbins is going to continue splitting time extensively, we’re going to need him to keep up his efficiency. This is a good spot to stay efficient, as the Falcons allowed the tenth-most rushing fantasy points per game, and are facing the fifth-most backfield carries per game.
Isiah Pacheco ($5,700 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-10) vs. Seattle Seahawks (49.5 total)
Jerick McKinnon has stolen the show as of late, but Isiah Pacheco has consistently delivered solid performances as of late. He carried the ball 15 times for 86 yards last week, as he’s averaged 5.7, 5.4, and 4.7 yards per carry in his past three games. He’s even been a little involved through the air, with six targets in his past three games.
Pacheco is reliant on efficiency and touchdowns, but this is a great spot to potentially see some efficiency. Since Week 9, Seattle has allowed 5.18 yards per carry to opposing backs, and a league-high 917 rushing yards. In lineups that aren’t focused on the Kansas City passing attack, Pacheco is a great option.
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