NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle for Week 16’s Main Slate

Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 lineups in each contest.

This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on these games into lineups.

Each week I’ll go over my favorite DFS angle for the given week and go over some of our Lineup Optimizer settings that are worth considering.

Now, let’s get to it!

My Favorite Week 16 NFL DFS Angles

I want to use this spot to talk about Gardner Minshew, as I think he is a critical decision point this week. As of this writing, it looks like he has a legitimate chance to come in as the highest or second-highest-owned quarterback in tournaments this week.

I think that is a mistake.

I love his floor in a spot that I think the Eagles will be trailing and need to throw (love him in cash games). The once impenetrable Cowboys defense has given up 63 combined points to the Texans and Jags in back-to-back weeks as well, largely through the air. The problem is two-fold.

One, I question whether he has true slate-breaking upside. Minshew throwing for 250 yards and two touchdowns would be really solid production for a backup QB making his first start of the season on the road against a hungry divisional opponent. That stat line equates to 18 fantasy points, which isn’t enough to separate you. Second, it is going to be very hard to build in correlation because the likelihood of him bringing along a pass catcher with slate-breaking upside is also less likely than a typical week with Hurts at the helm.

In short, if you are playing Minshew in GPPs this week, you are likely banking on a flukey rushing TD to raise his ceiling, or hoping for an 18-point performance that you are able to surround with the absolute optimal plays around him to make the salary savings worth it.

I will be very cautious about how I play him on Saturday, which I will detail below.

Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider

Below are the rules to consider for Sunday. For more context on optimizer rules or the Showdown format in general, check out my NFL Showdown Primer.

General

Minimum salary cap: 99.6%. Leaving more than this causes you to lose significant win equity.

Flex positions: WR, RB

Player Correlations

Optimal tournament construction includes stacking your quarterback with at least one, but usually two, pass-catcher(s) from the same team and at least one pass-catcher from the opposing team.

A mobile quarterback with a big rushing game is more likely to only need one teammate paired. These settings can be accomplished through rules in the “Position” tab or through the Player Correlations tab for more control.

You typically want to avoid pairings like Justin Jefferson with Dalvin Cook in GPPs to ensure your ceiling isn’t capped. The Player Groups tab gives you more control over the process, but the Position tab can be used to completely group out running back paired with a wide receiver from the same team.

For Minshew, I will be making a rule to pair him with a Cowboy (preferably CeeDee Lamb or Tony Pollard) and use a rule to boost AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert by 10% with a max 1 rule.

The reason for not forcing the same team stack is that I think the most likely path to him making optimals is simply by virtue of the flexibility provided by a quarterback priced at $4800 vs. a true 300-yard 3-TD game that is likely to bring a teammate with him.

Custom

Winning GPP lineups typically use 2-3 players that are less than 10% owned. The Lineup Optimizer allows you to accomplish this quickly.