NFL DFS Showdown: Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle in Jaguars-Jets

Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 lineups in each contest.

This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on this game into lineups.

Additionally, this piece focuses on DraftKings Showdown contests, but similar strategies are useful on FanDuel.

For my general Showdown strategy, you can read my Showdown primer.

My Favorite NFL DFS Angle in Jaguars vs. Jets Showdown

It’s looking like ugly weather on deck in East Rutherford on Thursday night with a combination of cold, wind, and rain that is clearly baked into the current 37.5 total that has dropped steadily throughout the week. I don’t like to overrate weather, as it is already factored in by Vegas, causing some players to count it twice. However, I will be giving a slight boost to players who see higher percentage targets.

Enter Elijah Moore, who looks like the biggest price-adjusted value of the slate to me. While Moore and Wilson have not had outstanding chemistry, Moore has finally become a full-time player who is on the field for over 80% of snaps. Mote importantly, 2/3 of those snaps have come from the slot.

This gives him the advantage of seeing higher efficiency targets, and it aligns with a Jags weakness. The Jags defense has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing slot wide receivers over the second half of the season. At just $4800, Moore is definitely someone I want to be over the field on.

I’ll give an honorable mention to Braxton Berrios as a cheap flyer with a similar profile to Moore but on fewer snaps. Berrios has played on just 29% of snaps over the last 3 weeks, but he does typically run very low aDot routes and is a favorite of Jets QB Zach Wilson.

Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider

General

• Max 3 players vs. opposing Defense
• Minimum salary cap 90%

Player Correlations

• Pair Captain Zach Wilson with at least two Jets pass-catchers
• Pair Captain Trevor Lawrence with at least two Jags pass-catchers
• Pair Captain pass-catchers with at most one other pass-catcher from the same team

Player Groups

• Max two kickers and defenses.
• Max two wide receivers from either team

Captain Pool (from highest to lowest priority)

Primary Targets

• Garrett Wilson
• Travis Etienne
• Christian Kirk

Secondary Targets 

• Zay Jones
• Elijah Moore
• Zonovan Knight
• Evan Engram

Large-Field GPP Fliers

• Jets D
• Jags D
• Trevor Lawrence
• Zach Wilson
• Corey Davis
• Tyler Conklin