NFL DFS Showdown: Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle in Rams-Packers

Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 lineups in each contest.

This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on this game into lineups.

Additionally, this piece focuses on DraftKings Showdown contests, but similar strategies are useful on FanDuel.

For my general Showdown strategy, you can read my Showdown primer.

My Favorite NFL DFS Angle in Rams vs. Packers Showdown

There’s no denying Christian Watson’s talent and the fact that he is on an absolute tear right now. His role has been steadily increasing, which has helped to buoy his production, but no matter how you look at it, he is absolutely due for regression. His current touchdown production is far from sustainable, and he figures to be joined on the field this week by a healthy Romeo Doubs, as well as Aaron Jones, who got the bye week to heal some nagging injuries.

Despite Watson’s recent scoring surge, Allen Lazard still leads the team in red zone targets despite not scoring in the last four games. Lazard surely didn’t mind the week off either, given the shoulder ailment that has ailed him for the last several games. It isn’t a sexy play, but I am leaning into the regression and will be prioritizing Lazard over Watson in terms of FLEX exposure.

Watson does possess the higher ceiling and thus warrants slightly higher consideration for Captain exposure. Aaron Jones is almost always my favorite Captain on the Green Bay side, given his ability to contribute through the air and on the ground, and that remains the case against the decimated Rams defense.

Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider

General

• Max 3 players vs. opposing Defense
• Minimum salary cap 90%

Player Correlations

• Pair Captain Aaron Rodgers with at least one Packer pass-catcher
• Pair Captain Baker Mayfield with at least two Rams pass-catchers
• Pair Captain pass-catchers with at most one other pass-catcher from the same team

Player Groups

• Max two kickers and defenses.
• Max two Rams wide receivers

Captain Pool (from highest to lowest priority)

Primary Targets

• Aaron Jones
• Christian Watson

Secondary Targets 

• Allen Lazard

Large-Field GPP Fliers

• Aaron Rodgers
• Van Jefferson
• Green Bay Defense
• Mason Crosby