NFL DFS Week 15 Main Slate Picks Breakdown: Plenty of Value Available at Receiver

NFL Week 15 features a 10-game main slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Quarterback Picks

Stud

There is value available at virtually every position across the board this week, so paying up at quarterback is even more viable than usual. Patrick Mahomes stands out as the top option at the position. He doesn’t provide the same rushing upside as guys like Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen, but he makes up for it by being a dominant pure passer. That has translated into plenty of fantasy success, with Mahomes posting a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past seven games on DraftKings.

The Chiefs are in an interesting spot this week vs. the Texans. On one hand, there is a bit of blowout concern. The team is listed as a 14-point favorite, so it might not be the best matchup from a pure game script perspective. If the team is able to build up a big lead, Mahomes might not get as many opportunities to throw the ball as usual.

Still, the only way the Chiefs are going to build a big lead is if Mahomes performs. He’s taken the field as a double-digit favorite in 20 previous contests, and he’s averaged 26.37 DraftKings points. That’s good for an average Plus/Minus of +3.01 (per the Trends tool).

Ultimately, the matchup might not give Mahomes a truly elite ceiling – unless you think the Texans can somehow keep up with the Chiefs – but his floor is arguably the best on the slate.

Value

The one downside with Mahomes is that he’s significantly more expensive than some of the other passers on this slate. For example, Mac Jones is priced down at just $5,000 on DraftKings, making him a full -$3,100 cheaper. That means that Jones obviously has a much lower bar to clear in terms of returning value.

Jones also benefits from one of the best possible matchups. He’s taking on the Raiders, who rank dead last in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA. They’ve also allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the position, so Jones carries much more upside than usual.

The Patriots’ injury situation will be important to monitor. Rhamondre Stevenson and Jakobi Meyers are both listed as questionable, and their statuses will be crucial on this slate. If both players are ruled out, the Patriots’ passing attack could provide outstanding upside at really affordable price tags.

Quick Hits

Tom Brady has been priced down to just $5,500 on DraftKings, which has to be the lowest price tag of his entire career. His production has not been the same this season, but he continues to throw the ball more than anyone in the league. He has at least 54 pass attempts in three of his past five games, including each of his past two. That kind of volume gives him plenty of upside, even in a tough matchup vs. the Bengals.

Justin Fields is priced at just $7,900 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 94%. He was priced at $8,500 before the Bears’ Week 14 bye, so this is a nice buy-low opportunity. He’s scored at least 19.4 FanDuel points in seven straight games, and he’s averaging more than 100 rushing yards per game in that stretch.

Is Justin Herbert back to being an elite fantasy quarterback? Matt Martin makes the case in this week’s Quarterback Breakdown.

NFL DFS Running Back Picks

Stud

Derrick Henry dominated against the Jaguars last week, racking up 25.5 DraftKings points thanks to 17 carries, 121 yards, and a touchdown. However, that performance still felt a bit disappointing. Henry had nearly 100 rushing yards in the first quarter, but the Titans fell into a hole against the Jaguars and ultimately had to lean on the passing attack in the second half.

Henry has the potential for another strong showing this week vs. the Chargers. Los Angeles has surrendered plenty of big games to opposing running backs this season, and they rank just 25th in rush defense DVOA.

However, the fact that the Titans are underdogs in this matchup is slightly concerning. Like most running backs, Henry tends to fare better when he’s favored, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -1.77 as an underdog this season. Henry is not known for catching passes out of the backfield, so just like last week, he can be scripted out of the game if his team is not competitive. That’s not a huge concern as a three-point underdog, but it is worth noting.

Still, Henry owns the top median and ceiling projections at the position per THE BLITZ, so he’s a fine running back to anchor your cash game squad.

Value

There are plenty of appealing cheap options at running back this week, but Zonovan Knight stands out as arguably the best of the bunch. Knight didn’t see the field for the Jets until Week 12, but he has wasted little time making an impact. He racked up 65% of the team’s carries in Week 13 with Michael Carter out of the lineup, and he increased that figure to 74% in Week 14. Carter returned to the lineup in that contest, but he served more as a pass-catching specialist while Knight handled the rushing responsibilities.

Knight draws a fantastic matchup this week vs. the Lions, who have played in an abundance of high-scoring affairs this season. They provide the perfect combination of an exploitable defense and an explosive offense, so opposing teams have to keep their foot on the gas for four quarters.

The Jets haven’t displayed much offensive upside this season, especially with Zach Wilson at quarterback. Expect them to lean on the run game in this spot, and Knight should handle most of those opportunities. He leads all running backs in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus per THE BLITZ.

Quick Hits

Latavius Murray is another potential value at the position. He’s even cheaper than Knight at $5,100, and the Broncos should also be looking to lean on the run in this spot. They’re playing without their starting quarterback and top receiver, and the Cardinals rank just 23rd in rush defense DVOA. Murray isn’t particularly effective at this point in his career, but he continues to handle most of the carries in Denver.

On the other side of that matchup, James Conner stands out as an elite option on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $7,2000, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 89%, and he’s carried one of the largest workloads in football of late. He has at least 19 opportunities in four straight games, and he’s scored five total touchdowns in that stretch. The Broncos have a stellar defense, but they’re not quite as imposing against the run as they are against the pass.

Miles Sanders is among the top options at the position in our Tournament Model, and Matt Martin highlights the Eagles’ ball carrier in this week’s Running Back Breakdown.

NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks

Stud

This doesn’t feel like a week where most people will pay up for a top receiver. There are some quality options to consider – Ja’Marr Chase, Davante Adams, and CeeDee Lamb, just to name a few – but they stand out more as tournament options than cash options. All three players have solid leverage scores in our NFL Models, so they’re a strong way to differentiate your lineups in GPPs.

That said, Keenan Allen stands out as the best per-dollar option in the stud tier. He’s played well since returning to the lineup four games ago, posting a positive Plus/Minus in each outing. Allen also has 14 targets in back-to-back games, which is elite volume for a $6,800 receiver. He’s scored at least 20.8 DraftKings points in both contests despite failing to crack 100 receiving yards and only scoring one touchdown.

Allen is in a phenomenal situation this week vs. the Chargers. They have been a massive pass funnel this season, ranking first in rush defense DVOA but 28th against the pass. No team in football has allowed more fantasy points to opposing receivers this season, so this seems like the spot for Allen to put everything together for a huge game.

Value

There are a few teams who have the potential to be decimated at receiver this week. The Patriots are one of them, with Meyers questionable and Devante Parker already ruled out.

If Meyers is able to suit up, he stands out as one of the top plays at the position. He leads the Patriots in targets and air yards this season, even though he’s missed three full games. He would have massive appeal at $4,700 if he’s active vs. the Raiders given their struggles against the pass this season.

If Meyers is unable to go, the Patriots become a value palooza at receiver. Nelson Agholor, Kenrick Bourne, and Tyquan Thornton would all have appeal at $3,400 or less.

Quick Hits

The Texans are another team with plenty of snaps available at the position. Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins are both out, so guys like Chris Moore, Amari Rodgers, and Phillip Dorsett will all have the opportunity to make plays. Moore stands out as the best option in THE BLITZ – he leads all receivers in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus – but don’t sleep on Rodgers. The third-round pick from the 2021 NFL Draft never really got a chance with the Packers, but he took advantage of his opportunity last week.

Chris Godwin should be another popular option at the position this week. He’s been extremely busy for the Buccaneers of late, which is not all that surprising with Brady chucking the ball 50 times per game. He has at least 13 targets in two of the past three weeks, and he went off for 32.0 DraftKings points in one of those contests.

Is Zay Jones another potential value option at the position? Matt Martin takes a look in this week’s Wide Receiver Breakdown.

NFL DFS Tight End Picks

Stud

When it comes to the tight end position, there’s Travis Kelce, and then there’s everybody else. Kelce has long been the top option at the position, but the gap between him and the rest of the field has been particularly wide this season. He’s averaging 19.8 PPR points per game, and no one else is above even 13.2. That gives him such a massive edge over every other player at the position.

That gap is reflected in THE BLITZ in Week 15. Kelce’s median projection is nearly eight points higher than the rest of the field on DraftKings, while his ceiling projection is almost 10 points higher.

Given all the value that is available on this slate, paying up for Kelce should be a very popular strategy on this slate. That said, his 13.5% projected ownership is still very reasonable. Kelce approaches must-play status on FanDuel, where his $8,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.

Value

Chig Okonkwo was an extremely popular option last week, and he did not disappoint for the Titans. He racked up a season-high six targets, and he responded with six catches for 45 yards. He also added just his second touchdown of the year, bringing his fantasy total to 18.5 DraftKings points.

Okonkwo isn’t playing on an overwhelming number of snaps, but he has been heavily involved when on the field. He’s been targeted on at least 25% of his routes run in three straight games, and the Titans need dependable pass-catchers with Burks sidelined. He has gotten a bit more expensive for Week 15, but his $3,100 salary on DraftKings is still too cheap. It results in a Bargain Rating of 94%, and he leads the position in projected Plus/Minus.

Quick Hits

Dalton Schultz is also expected to be a popular option at the position this week. He’s played extremely well since Dak Prescot returned to the lineup, posting a positive Plus/Minus in five of seven games. That includes 14.7 DraftKings points and 10 targets last week vs. the Texans. He’s another player who stands out as an elite value on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 95%.

Greg Dulcich will be playing with backup QB Brett Rypien this week, but he does get the mother of all matchups against the Cardinals. They haven’t successfully covered a tight end in years, and they’re 30th in DVOA vs. the position this season.

Tyler Conklin has 15 targets over the past two weeks, and Matt Martin highlights the Jets’ tight end in this week’s Tight End Breakdown.

Roster Construction

Unlike most weeks, there are a few different routes that you can go with in cash games. It really depends on whether you want to prioritize paying up at quarterback or paying up at tight end.

Personally, I prefer the paying up at QB approach. There’s no doubt that going with Kelce gives you a huge leg up on those who don’t, but the different in price tag between him and someone like Okonkwo is massive. It’s significantly greater than the difference between Mahomes and someone like Jones, and those savings can be applied to the rest of your roster.

If you do go with Mahomes and Okonkwo, it allows you to jam in the best plays across the rest of your roster. That includes Henry, Knight, and Alvin Kamara at running back and Allen, Meyers, and Moore at WR.

That feels a bit stronger to me than the Kelce-Jones route. You essentially have to downgrade Allen or Henry, and that doesn’t feel optimal.

On FanDuel, you can have your cake and eat it too. You can pay up at both quarterback and tight end, and it still leaves enough room for Henry at running back. You’ll probably have to sacrifice Allen at receiver, but he doesn’t stand out as nearly as good of a value on that site.

As far as GPPs, you can utilize our NFL Models to identify some potentially overlooked targets. We do ownership projections for every player, and our Leverage Rating compares those projected ownerships to each player’s projected ceiling. If a player has a high ceiling but low projected ownership, they will have a strong Leverage Rating. Those types of players are ideal in tournaments.

Make sure to also take advantage of all the excellent written content that will be produced prior to kickoff.

Good luck this week!