NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Saturday, Dec. 17): Can Zion Smash the Suns Again?

Saturday features a five-game main slate starting at 8 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use the PrizePicks promo code LABS to get a $100 sign-up bonus for NBA player props.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Saturday’s game between the Grizzlies and Thunder stands out as the best of the day for fantasy purposes. Both teams rank in the top eight in terms of pace, and this game leads the slate with a 233.5-point total. The Grizzlies are the largest favorites of the day, but as 8.5-point favorites, there isn’t an overwhelming amount of blowout risk.

Josh Giddey stands out as an excellent target at $6,900 on DraftKings. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.15 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s racked up at least 36.25 DraftKings points in three of his past four games. There’s also a chance that the Thunder could be a bit shorthanded on Saturday. Lu Dort exited Friday’s game with a right-hand sprain, and Giddey has increased his usage and assist rates with Dort off the floor this season.

---

Value

Devonte’ Graham has been a minimal part of the Pelicans’ rotation this season, but he is coming off 20 minutes in their last contest. That’s not much to write home about, but it’s enough to make Graham relevant at just $3,100. He’s currently projected for 18 minutes in our NBA Models, and Graham has averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

---

Fast Break

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander would be the biggest beneficiary if Dort is ruled out. SGA has already been phenomenal this season, averaging 1.39 DraftKings points per minute, but he takes his game to another level with Dort sidelined. He’s increased his usage rate by a team-high +7.1% in that situation, resulting in an average of 1.61 DraftKings points per minute.

The Suns are pretty banged up at the moment, with Deandre Ayton and Cameron Payne joining Cam Johnson on the sidelines on Saturday. That means Chris Paul is going to have to do a bit more than usual. He’s increased his usage rate by +4.4% with all three players off the floor this season, and he’s averaged 1.22 FanDuel points per minute.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

The Blazers are another team with an excellent matchup on Saturday. They’re taking on the Rockets, who rank 10th in pace and 27th in defensive efficiency, and the Blazers’ implied team total of 115.75 ranks third on the slate.

That makes Anfernee Simons an appealing buy-low option on FanDuel. He’s been priced down to just $7,000, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 92%. His price tag got as high as $8,800 earlier this month, and while he doesn’t have to do quite as much with Damian Lillard back in the fold, that still represents a significant price drop. Simons has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.48 with a comparable salary this season, including 49.5 FanDuel points vs. the Rockets in October (per the Trends tool).

---

Value

If Dort is ultimately ruled out, Aaron Wiggins is one candidate to replace him in the starting lineup. Regardless, he should see a nice spike in playing time at just $3,100. He’s coming off 27.8 minutes on Friday, and he’s projected for just under 26 minutes in our NBA Models. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.62. Wiggins has also averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he’s a bit better than the typical min-priced punt play on a per-minute basis.

---

Fast Break

The Bucks are another team that will need to be monitored on Saturday. They’ve already ruled out Khris Middleton, and Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed as questionable. That creates a scenario where they could be really shorthanded. Grayson Allen has seen a +5.0% usage bump with Middleton and Giannis off the floor this season, so he would become an excellent value option if Giannis is ruled out.

Like Paul, Devin Booker should also benefit from the Suns’ current injury situation. He hasn’t seen the same usage bump as Paul with Ayton, Payne, and Johnson off the floor, but he has increased his assist rate by a team-high +7.9% in that situation. Overall, he’s increased his production to 1.38 FanDuel points per minute, and his $8,700 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

If Giannis does suit up, you can certainly consider using him at small forward on FanDuel. The odds of him being the highest-scoring option at the position are astronomical as long as he’s in the lineup. No other small forward is within even 20 points in terms of median projection, and the gap is even wider from a ceiling perspective.

Giannis hasn’t done his best work recently, but the Jazz are a potential smash spot. They’ve struggled mightily on defense, particularly in terms of defending the rim. They’ve allowed the most points in the paint per game, which is where Giannis does most of his damage. His salary has also come down to just $11,600 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%. That gives him plenty of buy-low appeal.

---

Value

Josh Hart stands out as a nice source of value at $5,700 on FanDuel. Hart isn’t much of a scorer, but he makes up for it by being one of the best rebounding guards in the business. He’s averaged 8.2 rebounds per game this season, which has helped him average 0.85 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s currently projected for 33 minutes in a juicy matchup vs. the Rockets, and his FanDuel price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%.

---

Fast Break

Pat Connaughton would be another potential source of value for the Bucks if Giannis is ruled out. He’s dirt cheap at just $3,400 on DraftKings, so he’s arguably too cheap even if Giannis is available. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past nine games, and he should pick up a few additional minutes with Middleton out of the lineup.

Torrey Craig has been starting in place of Johnson for the Suns, and his role should be safer than usual with Ayton and Payne also sidelined. He’s averaged 0.83 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he’s seen at least 29.4 minutes in three of his past four games.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

It’s impossible to ignore what Zion Williamson has done recently. He got off to a quiet start this season, but he’s racked up at least 25 points in each of his past eight games. He’s had at least 30 points in five of them, and he’s increased his fantasy production to 1.47 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

Williamson has also found nice success in this matchup vs. Phoenix. They’ve played twice in the past eight days, and Williamson scored 35 points and at least 50 DraftKings points in both outings. With the Suns’ defense looking weaker than usual sans Ayton, there’s no reason to expect much to be different on Saturday.

---

Value

Aleksej Pokusevski returned to the Thunder’s starting lineup on Friday, and he finished with 24.0 DraftKings points in 24.1 minutes. Pokusevski’s role can vary wildly from night to night, and he’s played as many as 34.5 minutes and as few as 8.1 minutes across his past four games. That kind of volatility makes him impossible to trust for cash games, but it also gives him an undervalued ceiling for tournaments. Poku is capable of averaging well over a fantasy point per minute, so he has massive upside for his price tag on nights when he hits his minute’s ceiling. If he remains in the starting lineup – which is far from a given with the Thunder – he’ll have massive appeal at just $3,900.

---

Fast Break

Speaking of huge ceilings, Kevin Love is down to just $3,700 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 84%. Love hasn’t provided much fantasy value of late, but he is coming off 19.2 minutes in his last outing. He’s previously shown the ability to erupt in less than 20 minutes, and he’s still averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute for the year. He’s another elite value option for tournaments, especially with a projected ownership of around 10%.

Jerami Grant is worth consideration on FanDuel, where his $7,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 82%. Grant’s productivity has declined with Lillard back in the lineup, but the Rockets are a great spot for a potential bounceback. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.23 ranks third among PFs on Saturday’s slate.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Jaren Jackson Jr. is arguably the most intriguing player on the slate. He continues to play limited minutes, but that hasn’t mattered much for his fantasy value. He’s been absolutely dominant when on the floor, racking up 1.41 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He wasn’t really needed in the Grizzlies’ last game – a 41-point victory over the Bucks – but he had at least 38.75 DraftKings points in his previous two contests.

JJJ isn’t really worth considering on FanDuel, but his $6,900 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. Jackson is displayed a ceiling of more than 50 fantasy points with less than 30 minutes of playing time, so he has some appeal in a great matchup vs. the Thunder.

---

Value

With Ayton sidelined, the Suns are expected to split the center minutes pretty evenly between Bismack Biyombo and Jock Landale. Biyombo started the last game without Ayton, but he was limited to just 18.2 minutes due to foul trouble. I would expect him to pick up a few additional minutes on Saturday, but Landale still seems like the preferred option. He’s been the superior per-minute producer this season, so he offers a bit more fantasy value.

---

Fast Break

The Mavericks just officially ruled out Luka Doncic, Spencer Dinwiddie, and Dwight Powell, so there are going to be plenty of shots available vs. the Cavaliers. This game doesn’t have a ton of fantasy appeal – these are the two slowest teams in basketball – but the Mavs being so shorthanded changes things a bit. Christian Wood has increased his production to 1.63 DraftKings points per minute with Doncic and Dinwiddie off the floor, so he becomes an outstanding option at center.

Alperen Sengun has cooled off after a torrid start to the year, but his matchup vs. the Blazers results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.48 on FanDuel. He has an excellent ceiling for his price tag.