NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle for Week 14’s Main Slate

Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 lineups in each contest.

This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on these games into lineups.

Each week I’ll go over my favorite DFS angle for the given week and go over some of our Lineup Optimizer settings that are worth considering.

Now, let’s get to it!

My Favorite Week 14 NFL DFS Angles

If you have read this piece at all this season, then you know I like to target running backs that are going overlooked. That is looking a little hard to do this week, as the top-end running backs are currently all projected around 20% ownership. Thankfully, there is a guy a little further down who fits the bill.

Travis Homer, in my estimation, figures to be the lead back for a team that is 4-point home favorites this week, and it seems like no one wants to play him. Not only that, but Homer has receiving skills, and I would not be surprised to see him catch three-plus balls on Sunday. He plays the Panthers, who have some talent defensively but have given up the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs on the year.

His competition for touches is Tony Jones Jr, who the Seahawks seemed to have so little faith in that they continued to play a banged-up Deejay Dallas over him last week, while Jones ran for 2.0 yards per carry.

I expect some ownership to funnel his way as we get closer to lock, but current projections around the industry have him coming in below 5% owned despite being a source of value at just $5,000.

Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider

Below are the rules to consider for Sunday. For more context on optimizer rules or the Showdown format in general, check out my NFL Showdown Primer.

General

Minimum salary cap: 99.6%. Leaving more than this causes you to lose significant win equity.

Flex positions: WR, RB

Player Correlations

Optimal tournament construction includes stacking your quarterback with at least one, but usually two, pass-catcher(s) from the same team and at least one pass-catcher from the opposing team.

A mobile quarterback with a big rushing game is more likely to only need one teammate paired. These settings can be accomplished through rules in the “Position” tab or through the Player Correlations tab for more control.

You want to avoid pairings like Justin Jefferson with Dalvin Cook in GPPs to ensure your ceiling isn’t capped. The Player Groups tab gives you more control over the process, but the Position tab can be used to completely group out running back paired with a wide receiver from the same team.

Jared Goff is popular again this week, and I mentioned how tough he is to double-stack at the moment, given the rotation at WR. I think a solo stack with Amon-Ra St. Brown is fine, but I think adding Deandre Swift to the stack makes sense as well.

Custom

Winning GPP lineups typically use 2-3 players that are less than 10% owned. The Lineup Optimizer allows you to accomplish this quickly.