Thursday features a three-game slate starting at 6:30 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.
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Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use our FanDuel promo to get three months of free NBA League Pass.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
The top two point guard-eligible players on this three-game slate come from the same team: Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons. Lillard missed seven-straight games before coming back on Sunday. He played 32 minutes, finishing with 21 points, six assists, and four rebounds while shooting 7-16 from the field and 5-10 from downtown. Our Tournament Model has Lillard projected for 35 minutes, so expect a longer leash for this game.
Despite winning back-to-back games, the Trail Blazers are one-point home underdogs against the Nuggets. These two teams played earlier this season as Lillard led the Trail Blazers to a win and a season-high 135 points. Lillard had 31 points, eight assists, six rebounds, and 54 DraftKings points. The Nuggets rank 26th in Defensive Rating entering tonight’s games, so this is an exploitable matchup for Lillard and the Trail Blazers.
Value
The player with the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate for FanDuel is Spurs point guard Tre Jones. He is a little expensive from a value perspective, but this game environment with the Rockets is fantastic. On DraftKings, the top six players in terms of projected Plus/Minus come from the Spurs. Projected to play 34 minutes, Jones can easily pay off this salary on both sites and needs to be prioritized on FanDuel.
Jakob Poeltl and Keita Bates-Diop are both out, while Devin Vassell is listed as doubtful. However, the Spurs should keep this game competitive as the Rockets rank 28th in Defensive Rating. The Rockets allow an average of 26.7 assists per game, which ranks as the fifth-highest in the league. Jones is averaging a career and team-high 6.9 assists after taking over as the team’s starting point guard.
Jones is one of many Spurs players that look fantastic on this three-game slate.
Fast Break
Back to the Trail Blazers with Simons, who has been incredible this season. In his fifth season in the league, Simons is averaging a career-high 24.7 points and 4.5 assists per game. He ranks second only to Stephen Curry in 3-pointers made with 4.2 per game. Simons has made at least four 3-pointers in 15 of his 22 (68.2%) games this season, making him a strong play on DraftKings even with Lillard healthy. Playing Lillard and Simons together limits your lineups upside, but playing at least one in this spot is highly encouraged.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Even though the Clippers are playing on a back-to-back, Paul George said he is playing tonight, so we’ll take his word for it. They had a terrible overtime loss last night against the worst team in the league but will get a chance to bounce back right away in a matchup against the Heat. Unfortunately, the Heat rank just outside the top 10 in Defensive Rating and inside the bottom five in Pace, and this game has the lowest total on the slate at 213.5 points.
George played his second game last night since returning from another injury. Kawhi Leonard has also recently returned, but he is listed as doubtful on this second leg of a back-to-back. John Wall, Marcus Morris, and Norman Powell also missed last night’s game, but Wall and Morris are expected to play tonight. George has seen a team-high usage bump with Leonard off the floor this season, giving him some added upside. He’s a particularly strong option on FanDuel given his 94% Bargain Rating.
Value
Jalen Green looks like one of the better values at the position, even with Kevin Porter Jr. still in our projections. Porter Jr. is listed as questionable, which would make Green look even better in a great spot against the Spurs’ atrocious defense. In his second year in the league, Green is averaging a career and team-high 21.6 points on 17.7 field goal attempts per game. He is also averaging career-highs in both rebounds and assists, with four per game.
The Rockets are in the best spot on the slate as they have the highest implied team total at 116 points. The Spurs allow a league-worst 121.3 points per game as they rank seventh in Pace this season. Green has never seen a shot he hasn’t liked, leading the team with a 27.9% usage rate. With Porter Jr. in, Green looks like a good value, but if Porter Jr. is out, getting exposure to Green is a priority on this small slate.
Fast Break
Tyler Herro is a great option on both sites with Jimmy Butler questionable to play. Over the last five games, Herro has scored well over 40 DraftKings points in each one and even recorded his first career triple-double. During that time, Herro is averaging 38.6 minutes per game while stuffing the stat sheet. The Clippers remain a nightmare matchup, ranking fifth in the league in Defensive Rating, but Herro has been fantastic and may be unleashed if Butler is ruled out.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
The Spurs have lost 11 straight games and 16 of their last 17 but find themselves in a very intriguing matchup as 2.5-point road underdogs against the Rockets. With the Spurs struggling, Keldon Johnson is trying to take matters into his own hands. Over the last five games, Johnson has averaged a 31.2% usage rate while attempting 23.8 field goal attempts per game. He is shooting a career-low 39.3% from the field, but Johnson is letting it fly.
That makes Johnson a great play from a volume perspective. He is averaging a career-high 20.4 points per game while also showing upside on the glass. In this high-paced game, Johnson will have plenty of opportunities to score and grab rebounds. At some point, Johnson will knock down a bunch of shots and break the slate. Will it be tonight?
Value
Caleb Martin is another Heat player who would benefit if Butler is ruled out. Martin has started in all 24 games this season while averaging a career-high 11.1 points and 4.7 rebounds per game. He had a disappointing last outing with only three points, but Martin had scored in the double-digits in six straight and 10 of his previous 11 games.
Martin’s usage rate remains in the mid-teens, which is much better than his previous years. This is the first season in which Martin has been a full-time starter, and it has paid off with a career-high 32.2 minutes per game. Prioritize Martin on FanDuel, where his $4,600 salary comes with a 90% Bargain Rating.
Fast Break
The forward position outside of George is pretty thin. However, one more option worth getting some exposure to in tournaments is Trail Blazers forward Josh Hart. In his first full season with the Trail Blazers, Hart has taken a step back in the scoring department as Lillard and Simons take a high majority of the team’s field goal attempts. However, Hart is averaging a career-high 8.5 rebounds per game, so there is an outside shot of a double-double for Hart tonight.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Another questionable player we need to monitor the status of is Heat forward Jimmy Butler. He is questionable due to conditioning after sitting out the second leg of a back-to-back on Tuesday. You would think that would be enough rest for Butler, especially since the Heat have been very liberal with their use of the injury report this season. Overall, expect him to be in the lineup.
Butler has played 35 and 33 minutes since returning from injury and has averaged a double-double with 21.5 points and 10.5 rebounds per game. Butler has averaged 21 or more points in three straight seasons with the Heat, and he’s averaging a career-high 7.1 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game.
Butler will need to be prioritized on DraftKings, where he has an $8,600 salary and a 98% Bargain Rating.
Value
Doug McDermott looks like one of the best value plays on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel. With Devin Vassell doubtful — who leads the Spurs in scoring — McDermott will likely need to step up and knock down some shots to keep this team competitive. He might not start, but McDermott is averaging 10.3 points per game while shooting 40.6% from downtown this season.
The 30-year-old forward is in his second season with the Spurs playing amongst much younger players. His minutes have been very volatile, but that is also due to the Spurs being blown out nearly every game. With a tight point spread, there is reason to believe McDermott may see an increase in playing time tonight. Our NBA Models have him projected for 26.7 minutes, making him one of the best salary savers on the slate.
Fast Break
Outside of Lillard and Simons, Jerami Grant has scored like a banshee recently. He has scored more than 20 points in seven-straight games, and he’s averaged 30.6 points per game during that stretch. It is safe to say his first season with the Trail Blazers has been a success, as Grant is averaging a career-high 23 points per game while shooting a ridiculous 46.1% from behind the arc. Grant is a great way to get different on this slate in tournaments.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Finally, we get to the highest-priced player on both DraftKings and FanDuel and the top pay-up option on the slate with back-to-back MVP Nikola Jokic. Value could easily open up throughout the day, but even if it doesn’t, finding a way to get to Jokic on this slate is priority No. 1. His most recent game was a dud, but Jokic has by far the highest ceiling and floor in a great matchup against the Trail Blazers.
Jokic has shot 50% or better against the Trail Blazers’ frontcourt in seven-straight games. This season, the Trail Blazers rank 20th in points allowed in the paint at 50.3 per game. Being the only player on the slate priced above $10,000 on both sites, the decision tonight comes down to whether to play or fade Jokic. He will likely be one of the highest-owned players, but it is very deserving as the only true pay-up option.
Value
Alperen Sengun stands out as the best value at this position as he has the highest projected Plus/Minus for FanDuel and the second-highest for DraftKings. In his second season in the league, Sengun is averaging career-highs in points and rebounds while shooting 55.6% from the field. Playing in the best game environment on the slate, Sengun should be heavily involved in this matchup.
The Spurs have been absolutely torched by opposing bigs. They are allowing 54.3 points per game in the paint this season, which ranks tied for the second-highest in the league. They rank dead last in Defensive Rating, and they’re also in the bottom five in Rebounding Percentage. Sengun should have no trouble against this weak Spurs frontcourt. He only has six double-doubles this season but has a great chance to add his seventh tonight.
Fast Break
There are games when Jusuf Nurkic gets played off the court, but a matchup vs. Jokic should not be one of them. In their lone meeting this season, Jokic got into major foul trouble while Nurkic feasted on the backups with a double-double.
If you’re not paying up for Jokic, the center position comes down to Nurkic or Bam Adebayo as the next best pay-up option. We’ll take Nurkic given the matchup, as the Nuggets rank 22nd in points allowed in the paint this season with 51.2 per game. Nurkic has a great chance at a double-double tonight.
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